SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, December 24, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

********************** Christmas Schedule ***************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed on Christmas Day and reopen at 7 a.m. on December 26th.  This forecast includes burning instructions through Friday, December 26th (2 days).

For questions regarding prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Friday, December 26th.

Have a Merry Christmas!

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Winds will be more mild on Thursday, light and variable at the surface and generally from S for transport winds.  Rain through the day will reach 0.10-0.25”.  Snow levels will drop to 3-4000 feet.  Flow aloft will come from S with an upper-level low off the coast.  Temperatures will be near to above average.  Mixing heights will be mostly good.

 

Showers continue Friday with amounts from 0.10-0.25”.  Flow aloft will turn to come from NW as the upper-level low moves to the coast.  Surface winds will be light from SE-WSW.  Transport winds are expected from S-W.  Snow levels stay at 3-4000 feet with seasonable temperatures.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will have a few showers early then drier weather.  Flow aloft will be from NNW with upper-level ridging building offshore.  Light surface winds will be mostly onshore with transport winds from NW-N.  Temperatures will be near or below seasonable.  Freezing levels rise to near 4000 feet and mixing heights will lower some.

 

Dry weather on Sunday starts a trend that lasts into early next week under the influence of upper-level ridging.  Light and variable surface winds will somewhat come from S.  Transport winds are expected from NNW-NNE.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601-612 and 639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE-SSE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Thursday and Friday, December 25 and 26, 2025.

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For Thursday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Friday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.