SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, November 18, 2025       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is “Exempt Wood Burning Device” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level ridge will be over the region on Wednesday.  Areas of morning low clouds and fog break to a partly sunny day with near average temperatures.  An approaching trough will increase the clouds late with a chance of rain, becoming more likely into the evening.  The ridge causes poor mixing in the north through the afternoon with offshore winds.  Southern zones will see fair mixing conditions with mainly S winds.  By Wednesday night and early Thursday most of West Oregon will see .10” or less of moisture but the South Coast Range may exceed .25” with a snow level around 5000 feet.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Rain tapers off Thursday as the trough moves onshore, but most of the trough breaks off and moves into California.  The trough will hang on to cause enough onshore flow for much improved burning conditions into the afternoon and SW-WSW transport winds.

 

A ridge returns to West Oregon by Thursday night and into Friday, causing poor burning potential with light and variable winds through Friday afternoon.  Skies will be partly to mostly sunny while temperatures remain near seasonal.

 

The ridge maintains its grip on most of the area Saturday to greatly limit mixing potential again.  The North Coast Range may be an exception where onshore flow may be enough to create good mixing with a chance of light rain.  Winds throughout the area will be light and variable.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind E to ESE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height 4100 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

In the North Coast Range mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft rising to 3500 to 4500 ft in the afternoon.  Elsewhere, mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, November 19, 2025.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.