SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, April 30, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper trough will approach the coast on Friday but stall offshore causing SW flow aloft.  There is a slight chance of afternoon mountain showers and possibly a thunderstorm going into evening, snow levels around 9000 feet.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures near normal south but well above across the north.  Mixing heights only become fair in afternoon in the Coast Range but still good for the Cascades.  Winds will be light SW-NW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

On Saturday the trough moves south to reach offshore California.  It will continue to draw moisture northward for widely scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm, mainly in the Cascades.  Up to .10” of moisture is possible except more in a thunderstorm.  Otherwise, warm conditions continue under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Mixing conditions will generally be good in the afternoon with light ENE-ESE transport winds.

 

The trough continues near the California coast on Sunday and Monday.  Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be over the south half of the region as .25” of precipitation is possible each day.  Snow levels continue around 9000 feet and temperatures range from 10-20oF above seasonal.  Burning potential remains good on both afternoons with light NE-E winds on Sunday becoming NW by Monday afternoon.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE and increases to 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, May 1, 2026.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.