SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, December 31, 2025 2:30 PM Pete Parsons
******************** New
Year’s Day Schedule ************************
The ODF forecast
office will be closed on New Year’s Day and reopen at 7 a.m. on January 2nd. This forecast includes burning instructions
through Friday, January 2nd (2 days).
For questions
regarding prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast
office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Friday, January
2nd.
Happy New Year!
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**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information
****************
An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your
area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units
that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.
* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/.
*
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*********************************************************************
* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from
November 15 through February 15.
Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt
Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”
Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra
precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air
quality within nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A strong upper-level ridge responsible for the recent dry
stretch will slowly drift east of Oregon, to over the Rockies, by Thursday (New
Year’s Day), with increasing SW flow aloft pushing the first in a series of Pacific
weather systems inland. Expect light
rain to spread from SW to NE across the state.
Rainfall totals should be mostly less than .25”. Snow levels will remain above 7000 feet north
and 8000 feet south. Despite mild
surface temperatures, warm air aloft will keep mixing highly suppressed with
SE-SW winds.
Rain should taper off, from south to north, on Friday, as
one weather system exits to the NE and another system approaches from the SW. A slight drop in snow levels and very mild
surface temperatures should marginally improve daytime mixing with continued SE-SW
winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Rain and SE-S winds increase across all zones on Saturday. Surface temperatures stay quite mild, as snow
levels drop to 5-6000 feet. That should significantly
improve daytime mixing. Rainfall totals may
exceed .25”, especially over higher terrain.
Areas of rain and mountain snow continue Sunday with snow levels
dropping to about 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south. Additional rainfall totals more than .25” are
possible, especially over higher terrain. Expect good daytime mixing with locally brisk
SE-SW transport winds, especially over higher terrain.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind E
to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind E
to SE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind E to
SE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 1900 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1000 - 1700 ft.
Transport wind SE
to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 1700 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1000 - 1700 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 4
- 8 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to S at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSE to S at 14 - 28 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind ESE
to S at 5 - 9 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 20
- 36 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 -
14 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, January 1 and 2, 2026.
=================================================================
For Thursday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
and 616
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Zone 639, 611,
620, and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 610 and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 617
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Friday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
and 616
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611 and 617
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.