SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
June 20, 2025
3:00 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
An unseasonably strong and cold upper-level trough is coming
ashore this afternoon with widespread showers, especially across the NW
zones. Showers will continue through
tonight with a chance of evening thundershowers. Snow levels will locally drop to near 4000
feet with heavier showers. Additional precipitation
totals over .25” are likely, especially north and over higher terrain.
The strong upper-level trough pushes across Oregon on
Saturday with continued unseasonably cool and showery conditions maintaining
excellent mixing. Additional precipitation
totals near .25” are likely, especially over the Cascades, where snow levels
will be near 5000 feet. Temperatures
will be 15-20°F below average. Brisk
transport winds will be SW-W across the northern zones and W-NW across the southern
zones.
The trough pushes east on Sunday with a drier and more
stable N-NW flow aloft, bringing an end to the shower activity. Clearing skies in the afternoon will help
temperatures recover to within 5°F of average.
Freezing levels rise to above 7000 feet, but mixing remains excellent
with transport winds veering to NW-NE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A dry and stable NW flow aloft provides mostly sunny skies
on Monday with temperatures warming back to above average. Daytime mixing will remain good with mostly northerly
transport winds.
Tuesday also looks mostly sunny with weak westerly flow aloft
and onshore flow at the surface. The air
aloft will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing, as surface temperatures
warm to about 10°F above average. Afternoon
transport winds turn NW.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind SW
to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SW at
8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to W at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind W
to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to
4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, June 21 through 23, 2025.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 west of R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 750
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Limit burning in or near corridors.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix -
see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal
SSRAs.
Zone 602, 603,
and 620
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro
or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher
tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster. Higher
tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if
burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
615, 618, and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal
SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro
or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher
tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 616
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.