SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 20, 2025       3:00 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An unseasonably strong and cold upper-level trough is coming ashore this afternoon with widespread showers, especially across the NW zones.  Showers will continue through tonight with a chance of evening thundershowers.  Snow levels will locally drop to near 4000 feet with heavier showers.  Additional precipitation totals over .25” are likely, especially north and over higher terrain.

The strong upper-level trough pushes across Oregon on Saturday with continued unseasonably cool and showery conditions maintaining excellent mixing.  Additional precipitation totals near .25” are likely, especially over the Cascades, where snow levels will be near 5000 feet.  Temperatures will be 15-20°F below average.  Brisk transport winds will be SW-W across the northern zones and W-NW across the southern zones.

The trough pushes east on Sunday with a drier and more stable N-NW flow aloft, bringing an end to the shower activity.  Clearing skies in the afternoon will help temperatures recover to within 5°F of average.  Freezing levels rise to above 7000 feet, but mixing remains excellent with transport winds veering to NW-NE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A dry and stable NW flow aloft provides mostly sunny skies on Monday with temperatures warming back to above average.  Daytime mixing will remain good with mostly northerly transport winds.

Tuesday also looks mostly sunny with weak westerly flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface.  The air aloft will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing, as surface temperatures warm to about 10°F above average.  Afternoon transport winds turn NW.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to W at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind W to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, June 21 through 23, 2025.

=================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 750 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.