SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
February 20, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
Active weather returns on Saturday, as a potent Pacific
storm spreads clouds across all zones with mostly light rain and snow advancing
eastward. Precipitation totals may reach .25” along the coast and taper off to
the east. Increasing SW flow aloft lifts
snow levels to near 4000 feet. Mixing
should be good with brisk SE winds. Easterly
winds will become strong near the western Columbia Gorge. Temperatures should remain slightly below
average.
Sunday, the Pacific frontal system advances onshore with more
significant rainfall and brisk SE-SW winds.
Easterly winds will relax at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Rainfall totals may exceed an inch along the coast
and coastal range. Western valleys and the
Cascades may see over .50” of precipitation.
Snow levels rise to 4-5000 feet. Mixing
should be excellent.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A strong SW flow aloft will continue to feed a weak “Atmospheric
River” over Oregon on Monday with periods of rain and SE-SW winds. Local rainfall
totals could exceed an inch, especially in the coast range. Other areas may get less than .25”,
especially east of the Cascades. Snow
levels rise to 6-7000 feet with near-average temperatures. Mixing stays good.
SW flow aloft continues Tuesday, as the main moisture plume
drops southward across southern Oregon and northern California. Expect areas of rain and snow, mainly south,
with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south. Precipitation totals may exceed .25”, especially
south. Mixing remains good with winds turning NW across the northern zones and
SW across the southern zones. Temperatures
hold near average.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ESE at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind E to
ESE at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SE
at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SE
at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SE
to SSE at 15 - 29 mph.
Surface wind E to
SE at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind E to
ESE at 10 - 16 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SE
at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 10 - 16 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SE
to SSE at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SE
to S at 15 - 29 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 10 - 18 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
4100 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to S at 22
- 38 mph. Surface wind SE to S at 10 -
18 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 14
- 28 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 -
9 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at
6 - 10 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4
- 8 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, February 21 through 23, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611 and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
611, and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611 and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.