SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 15, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
Saturday will have cooler temperatures
and potential for showers. An upper-level
trough will move north with the jet stream over the region and NW flow
aloft. Freezing levels will drop to 4000
feet in northern zones and 5000 feet in southern zones. Rainfall amounts could reach 0.25” with a
very isolated chance of thunderstorms. Winds
will be from W-NNW with good mixing heights.
Showers will decrease through the day on
Sunday. The upper-level trough will shift
east with ridging offshore and NW flow aloft.
Temperatures will be near or below seasonable. Winds will be from NNW-NNE, lighter at the
surface. Mixing heights will be good.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Monday will feature
dry weather and NW flow aloft with upper-level ridging offshore. Winds will come from NW-NNE with seasonable
temperatures. Mixing heights will be
good.
A few showers are
possible in far northern zones while much of the region stays dry on
Tuesday. Upper-level ridging will build
and mixing heights will decrease some.
Winds will come from NW-N. Mostly
dry weather lasts much of next week.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to WNW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3300 - 4300 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to
4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to
4400 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 16 through 18, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T12S through T17S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
615, 616, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro
or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher
tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 616
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S units should be 1000 tons or
less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.