SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 17, 2019       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Weak upper level ridging, which has built over the state today, will shift eastward tonight as an incoming trough will bring another cold front to the region on Saturday. Moisture will begin along the coast during the morning and spread inland through the day. Air mass will remain generally unstable. The incoming front will draw a SE’erly offshore flow during the morning but will then shift to the S to SSW during the afternoon and evening.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level trough will move into the state on Sunday and remain over the state through Tuesday with another disturbance moving through the flow on Monday. Air mass will remain mostly unstable.  

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to SE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to S at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 18 and 19, 2019.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 615, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 611, and 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607, 608, 617, 620, and 622

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.