SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 5, 2025       3:10 PM      Pete Parsons

 

CORRECTED SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge flattens on Saturday with a weak cold front sagging southward and spreading areas of light rain at times across all zones.  Snow levels only drop to about 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Most rainfall amounts will be less than .25”.  Slight cooling aloft and SW winds will provide better ventilation.

Very little change in the weather pattern is projected through Sunday, with a flat upper-level ridge directing a weak weather system across mainly the northern half of the state.  Expect light rain at times north and a chance of rain south.  Additional rainfall will be generally less than .25” north and .10” south with the greatest totals in the north coast range.  Snow levels hold at 5-6000 feet north and 6-7000 feet south with S-SW winds providing fair ventilation.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A stronger weather system will bring increasing rain and S-SW winds Monday and Tuesday, mainly north.  Rainfall total may exceed 2” north and taper off to less than .10” near the California border.  Snow levels should rise slightly but expect at least fair daytime mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 16 - 26 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, December 6 through 8, 2025.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 615, 616, 618, 619 and 620.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 616, 617, 620, 622 and 623.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 615, 616, 618, 619 and 620.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 616, 617, 620, 622 and 623.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 615, 616, 618, 619 and 620.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 616, 617, 620, 622 and 623.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.