SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 16, 2024       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

************** New Permanent Forecast Office Hours ******************

To best serve the field staff, the “year-round” ODF forecast office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).  Written forecasts will include burning instructions for the following day, and Friday’s forecasts will include burning instructions through the next working day (usually the following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from October through June.

After reviewing the written forecast, please call the ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) with any burning-related questions.  If you have a need for weekend office staffing, please contact us in advance.

*********************************************************************

******************** Instruction Zones Update ***********************

 

The National Weather Service is changing borders and numbering of their fire zones.  ODF will use the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with the updates.

 

A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)

 

*********************************************************************

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

On Friday an upper-level trough will move onshore north of Oregon with a weak cold front passing through Oregon.  Only a few light showers will occur in the northern mountains tonight and Friday.  WNW flow aloft returns on Friday along with skies gradually becoming sunny, daytime temperatures dropping to near or slightly below seasonal averages.  Mixing conditions will generally be good with mainly NW transport winds across northern zones but N-NE for the south.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION       

 

Another weak trough will be over West Oregon on Saturday and Sunday.  Skies will be partly cloudy in the north while mostly sunny south, remaining cool and daytime temperatures reaching only 5-10oF below average by Sunday.  There will be a chance of light showers in the north for Saturday night and Sunday with a snow level near 3500-4500 feet, but moisture will be less than .10”.  Mixing heights on Saturday morning will be quite low during early morning but conditions through the rest of the weekend will be very good with NW-N winds.

 

The trough moves east of the state on Monday with dry upper-level NNW flow and a transitory ridge approaching.  Expect mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.  Low early morning mixing heights will become quite good in the afternoon as winds remain NW-N.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 – 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW at 5 to 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to NNW at 4 – 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable in the morning increasing to WNW to NNW at 6 – 10 mph in the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, May 17, 2024.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.