SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 18, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

The upper-level low will shift inland with rounds of rain and mountain snow on Thursday.  Rainfall amounts could range from 0.10-0.25”.  Winds will turn to come from NW-NNE, light at the surface.  Snow levels will be down to 1500 feet and lower at times.  Mixing heights will be high.  Temperatures will be below seasonable.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Brief upper-level ridging on Friday will help lift freezing levels to near 3000 feet.  A few showers are expected far north but most will have a break from precipitation.  Winds will turn again from SSE-SW.  Mixing heights will lower some but continue to be good.

 

Showers may move inland near the coast but the bulk of the rain stays offshore on Saturday.  The next upper-level low will be off the coast.  Freezing levels will be up to near 4000 feet and mixing heights will decrease.  Surface winds will be offshore and brisk transport winds will come from SE-S.

 

Rain moves onshore Sunday as the upper-level low moves closer.  Winds will be from SE-S with strong transport winds.  Temperatures will rise to near average and freezing levels will be at 4-5000 feet.  Mixing heights will be fair to good.  Rounds of rain and snow continue into next week.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, February 19, 2026.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.