SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, February 5, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please take extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The axis of a strong upper-level ridge shifted eastward today, with a dry and unseasonably mild southerly flow aloft lifting freezing levels to above 12,000 feet.  Except for a few valley locations, which had persistent fog, sunny skies made for mild daytime temperatures.  However, very warm air aloft is maintaining generally poor mixing.

The upper-level ridge weakens and slides further eastward on Friday, allowing a weak and splitting frontal system to push some clouds inland, but no rain is expected.  Light winds turn onshore, signaling the beginning of a pattern change to cooler and wetter weather. Slight cooling aloft may marginally improve afternoon mixing.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Increasing SW flow aloft pushes a stronger weather system ashore on Saturday.  Clouds increase and temperatures continue cooling.  Mixing improves with increasing S-SW winds.  Rain moves onto the coast in the afternoon and the western interior late in the day, especially north.

Rain advances eastward across all zones by Sunday morning with snow levels dropping to 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south in the afternoon.  Temperatures cool close to seasonal normals.  Rain totals could exceed an inch along the coast and the NW interior but will taper off to around .25” in the SW interior and to less than .10” east of the Cascades.  Mixing becomes good with brisk SW-NW winds.

A weak upper-level trough maintains mostly cloudy skies on Monday with a few residual showers, mainly north.  Snow levels drop to about 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south with cooler air aloft providing excelling daytime mixing.  Transport winds turn SW-W across the northern zones and W-NW across the southern zones.

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE to SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, February 6, 2026.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.