SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, March 6, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An offshore upper-level ridge noses across the Oregon coast on Saturday causing temperatures to rise 5-10oF above seasonal levels but lowering mixing heights too.  Skies look to be mostly cloudy north with a few light showers while the south is mostly sunny.  Burning potential is generally poor to fair through the afternoon with light winds favoring SW-NW in the north and NW-NNE south.

 

The offshore ridge weakens and moves south on Sunday allowing flow aloft to become W in response to a large trough in the Gulf of Alaska.  It also pushes a cold front across the area late.  Light rain is likely in the northern mountains where up to .10” can be expected, snow levels 5-7000 feet.  Mixing potential improves into the afternoon when winds shift to W-NW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Colder air follows the front by Sunday night and stays through Tuesday as W flow aloft continues.  Rain and snow are expected in the north with up to .25” on each day while the south will be partly sunny with a chance of light rain and snow.  Snow levels will likely range from 2000 feet north to 4000 feet south on Monday, then 1500-3500 feet by Tuesday.  Afternoon burning conditions on both days will be good with mostly NW transport winds. 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2300 to 3300 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4200 to 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, March 7 through 9, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 750 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.