SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
May 16, 2024 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
************** New Permanent Forecast Office Hours ******************
To best serve the field staff, the “year-round” ODF
forecast office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on weekends
and state holidays). Written forecasts
will include burning instructions for the following day, and Friday’s forecasts
will include burning instructions through the next working day (usually the
following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from October through June.
After reviewing the written forecast, please call the
ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) with any burning-related questions. If you have a need for weekend office
staffing, please contact us in advance.
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******************** Instruction Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service is changing borders and
numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the previous zone boundaries
for smoke management and not change with the updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at the bottom of
the instructions in the Special Notes section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Another weak trough will be over West Oregon on Saturday and
Sunday. Skies will be partly cloudy in
the north while mostly sunny south, remaining cool and daytime temperatures
reaching only 5-10oF below average by Sunday. There will be a chance of light showers in
the north for Saturday night and Sunday with a snow level near 3500-4500 feet,
but moisture will be less than .10”. Mixing
heights on Saturday morning will be quite low during early morning but
conditions through the rest of the weekend will be very good with NW-N winds.
The trough moves
east of the state on Monday with dry upper-level NNW flow and a transitory
ridge approaching. Expect mostly sunny
skies and seasonal temperatures. Low early
morning mixing heights will become quite good in the afternoon as winds remain
NW-N.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind NW
to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind increases
to NW to N at 4 – 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1600 - 2600 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind increases
to NW at 5 to 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind NNE
to ENE at 6 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1700 - 2700 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
3100 - 4100 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind increases
to NW to NNW at 4 – 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable in the morning increasing to WNW to NNW at 6 – 10 mph in the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 -
10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, May 17,
2024.
=================================================================
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T15S through T20S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3
miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.