SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 4, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please take extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The axis of a strong upper-level ridge, currently over Oregon, will shift eastward, to over Idaho, on Thursday.  Increasing SE-S flow aloft over Oregon will keep freezing levels above 7000 feet.  Unseasonably warm air aloft will maintain generally poor daytime mixing.  Skies should be sunny with mild daytime temperatures.  Light SE-S winds will slacken in the evening with local drainage flows dominating.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge weakens on Friday, allowing a weak and splitting frontal system to spread some clouds across the state.  Areas of light rain are possible along the coastal strip.  Surface temperatures remain quite mild.  Slight cooling aloft may marginally improve afternoon mixing, as winds turn light SW-W across all zones.

SW flow aloft pushes the next in what appears will be a series of progressively stronger weather systems ashore on Saturday.  Expect increasing clouds but with only slight cooling.  Mixing will marginally improve with increasing S-SW transport winds.  Rain may impact the extreme NW zones in the afternoon, before extending south and east Saturday night.

Rain pushes eastward across all zones on Sunday with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south late.  Temperatures cool back to near seasonal normals.  Rain totals could exceed an inch along the coast but will taper off to less than .10” east of the Cascades.  Mixing improves with brisk SW transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601-612 and 639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, February 5, 2026.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 639, 611, 620, and 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 610 and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.