SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 17, 2019 2:30 PM Nick Yonker
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
Weak
upper level ridging, which has built over the state today, will shift eastward
tonight as an incoming trough will bring another cold front to the region on
Saturday. Moisture will begin along the coast during the morning and spread
inland through the day. Air mass will remain generally unstable. The incoming
front will draw a SE’erly offshore flow during the
morning but will then shift to the S to SSW during the afternoon and evening.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Upper
level trough will move into the state on Sunday and remain over the state
through Tuesday with another disturbance moving through the flow on Monday. Air
mass will remain mostly unstable.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.
Transport
wind ESE to SE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface
wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface
wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind S to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface
wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611, 639
and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.
Transport
wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface
wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.
Transport
wind SE to S at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface
wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In
the north mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the
morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. In the south mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during
the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing
height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising
above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during
the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing
height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising
above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during
the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 18 and
19, 2019.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 west of R8W
Units
should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601,
use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units
should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 615, 618,
619, and 620
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T29S. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
611, and 616
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north
of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible. Call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
617, 620, and 622
Units
should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 623
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate.
Siskiyous
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Restrict units in or near
corridors to 500 tons or less. Restrict
units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.
Zone 602 and 603
Units
should be 300 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Avoid burning in or near
corridors.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units
should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate. From T12S
through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles
apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units
should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.
Zone 610 and 616
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. South of T30S in Zone 616 units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind
SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.