SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Sunday,
November 30, 2025
3:15 PM Pete Parsons
************ ODF Forecast
Office Reopens Monday Morning *************
The ODF forecast
office is currently closed for Thanksgiving weekend and will reopen at 7 a.m.
Monday, December 1st. This forecast includes burning instructions for Monday,
December 1st, and an outlook to help you with prescribed-burning planning for
the coming week.
Messages left on the
ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) will be received and returned after 7 a.m. on Monday,
December 1st.
Happy Holidays!
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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from
November 15 through February 15.
Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is “Exempt Wood
Burning Device” or “No Burning Period.” Burning
is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and
limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within
nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
Building high pressure is drying the air mass this afternoon
and bringing sunshine to much of the region.
However, the air mass is very stable with persistent pockets of valley
fog and low clouds. Expect inversions to
strengthen overnight with local frost.
On Monday, areas of valley fog and frost will yield to
increasing clouds, as NW flow aloft directs a weak weather system into the region
from SW British Columbia. Mixing will remain
poor with light NW-N winds across the northern zones veering to N-NE across the
southern zones. Light rain is likely
north Monday night with snow levels dropping to 4-5000 feet.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
On Tuesday, areas of light rain north early will turn to scattered
showers in the afternoon. Rainfall
totals should be mostly less than .10”. Southern
zones may get some sprinkles or light showers, as a weak cold front drops SE across
the region. Snow levels will be near
4000 feet north and 5000 feet south. Cooling
aloft will improve daytime mixing with mostly NW winds.
High pressure builds back over the state on Wednesday for a
return to dry conditions and poor mixing.
Areas of valley fog will give way to increasing clouds from a warm front
in the afternoon. Light winds should be
mostly NW-N across the northern zones, veering to N-NE across the southern
zones.
Another warm front maintains mostly cloudy skies on Thursday
despite a generally dry NW flow aloft. Surface
temperatures will be near average, but freezing levels around 8000 feet will maintain
poor mixing with light S-SW transport winds.
The upper-level ridge finally flattens on Friday, allowing a
stronger weather system to spread rain across all zones, especially north. Snow levels drop to 5000 feet north and 7000
feet south. Rainfall over .25” is likely
north and near .10” south. Cooling aloft
and increasing SW-W winds will dramatically improve mixing.
2. DISPERSION
MONDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1100 - 2100 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 1800 ft.
Transport wind
increases to NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
increases to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface
wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind E to SE at 4 -
8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Monday, December
1, 2025.
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Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
615, 616, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of Forest
Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603 - call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
610, and 616
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if
burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 600
tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
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4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.