SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, June 24, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

 

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

 

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

 

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

 

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

 

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

 

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

 

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level trough is approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.  It will increase the clouds tonight, staying generally cloudy across the north on Thursday while partly sunny south.  Temperatures fall to near seasonal levels.  Mixing potential is only fair in the Coast Range but better for the Cascades.  Transport winds will be mainly W.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Rain spreads inland Thursday night, especially in mountains, and increases on Friday while turning the area much cooler, 10-15oF below average.  Expected rainfall is .25” to .75” for northern mountains but much less in the south.  Mixing will be excellent in the afternoon with SW winds.

 

The trough is overhead on Saturday for a very cool and showery day.  Temperatures will range from 10-20oF below seasonal and the snow level drops to 6000-6500 feet.  Another .75” of moisture is likely for much of the Cascades but .25” or less elsewhere.  Expected mixing is excellent with W-NW winds.

 

On Sunday the region will be under cool N flow aloft as the trough moves east.  Showers taper off early and skies become partly to mostly sunny but remaining very cool.  Mixing continues excellent with NW winds.  

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SSW to SW and increases to 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind increases to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3600 - 4600 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

In the north mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, June 25, 2026.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.