SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, February 20, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Active weather returns on Saturday, as a potent Pacific storm spreads clouds across all zones with mostly light rain and snow advancing eastward. Precipitation totals may reach .25” along the coast and taper off to the east.  Increasing SW flow aloft lifts snow levels to near 4000 feet.  Mixing should be good with brisk SE winds.  Easterly winds will become strong near the western Columbia Gorge.  Temperatures should remain slightly below average.

Sunday, the Pacific frontal system advances onshore with more significant rainfall and brisk SE-SW winds.  Easterly winds will relax at the western end of the Columbia Gorge.  Rainfall totals may exceed an inch along the coast and coastal range.  Western valleys and the Cascades may see over .50” of precipitation.  Snow levels rise to 4-5000 feet.  Mixing should be excellent.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A strong SW flow aloft will continue to feed a weak “Atmospheric River” over Oregon on Monday with periods of rain and SE-SW winds. Local rainfall totals could exceed an inch, especially in the coast range.  Other areas may get less than .25”, especially east of the Cascades.  Snow levels rise to 6-7000 feet with near-average temperatures.  Mixing stays good.

SW flow aloft continues Tuesday, as the main moisture plume drops southward across southern Oregon and northern California.  Expect areas of rain and snow, mainly south, with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south.  Precipitation totals may exceed .25”, especially south. Mixing remains good with winds turning NW across the northern zones and SW across the southern zones.  Temperatures hold near average.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind E to ESE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SE at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to SSE at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind E to ESE at 10 - 16 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 16 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSE at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to SSE at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 18 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 4100 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to S at 22 - 38 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 18 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 14 - 28 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, February 21 through 23, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611 and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 611, and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611 and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.