SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, November 10, 2025       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

************************* Holiday Schedule *************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed on Tuesday, November 11th.

This forecast includes burning instructions for Tuesday, November 11th through Wednesday, November 12th.  Please consult with the ODF forecaster this afternoon with questions on holiday prescribed-burning.

ODF forecast line:  503-945-7401.  Thank you to our Veterans!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level ridge rebuilds on Tuesday while flow aloft becomes SW in the afternoon.  Conditions will be partly sunny and warmer than seasonal levels.  The ridge causes poor to fair mixing in the afternoon with light S-SW winds, except variable in the North Coast Range.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A strong trough will slowly approach the coast on Wednesday.  Rain spreads through the Coast Range, likely reaching the Cascades late in the afternoon or evening.  Snow levels late in the day will be 6500-7500 feet.  Potential moisture on Wednesday and Wednesday night for most of the Coast Range is around .50” with less farther inland.  Mixing significantly improves except to remain poor in the North Coast Range.  Afternoon winds will be SSE-SSW.   

 

The trough is still approaching the coast on Thursday for continuing rain, snow level dropping to 5000 feet late.  Another .50” or more of moisture is likely for the mountains.  Mixing potential is very good with S-SW winds.

 

The upper trough finally moves onshore by Friday while showers only gradually taper off.  But the trough leaves behind continuing S-SW lower levels winds and generally very good mixing.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind shifts to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft during the late morning and afternoon.  In the south mixing height above 5000 ft all day.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 13 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

FRIDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft by late morning through the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning then above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 27 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday and Wednesday, November 11 and 12, 2025.

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For Tuesday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Wednesday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, and 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.