SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, February 19, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Brief upper-level ridging takes hold for Friday with a few showers north but mostly dry weather.  Winds will turn to come from SSE-SW at the surface and mostly light.  Transport winds will be from S-SSW.  Temperatures will be below seasonable.  Freezing levels will increase to 3000 feet and mixing heights will continue good.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Flow aloft will come from SW with an upper-level trough far offshore on Saturday.  A few showers will move inland, mostly north.  Winds will come from SE-S with brisk transport winds.  Freezing levels rise to near 4000 feet.  Mixing heights will lower some but stay mostly good.

 

Rain moves inland on Sunday as the upper-level trough moves closer to shore with strong SW winds aloft.  Temperatures will be seasonable.  Surface winds will come from SE-SSE and brisk transport winds will be from S.  Mixing heights will be fair to good with snow levels near 4000 feet.

 

Monday will have rain and strong SW flow aloft.  Snow levels increase to 5-6000 feet and mixing heights will be fair to good.  Winds will come from S-SW with variable direction for surface winds at times.  Showers lessen into midweek.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE-S and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SE-S and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S-WSW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SE-SSE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SE-SSE and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 13 - 25 mph.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, February 20, 2026.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.