SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 14, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Friday will be mostly dry with a few showers far north at most.  Flow aloft will be onshore as upper-level troughing moves across Washington.  Temperatures will be near or below average.  Winds will be onshore from SW-NW and brisk.  Mixing heights will be high.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will have light showers for most and NW flow aloft as the upper-level troughing shifts east.  Freezing levels will be down to 4000 feet in northern zones and 5000 feet in southern zones with some Cascades snow.  Winds will come from W-NW with brisk transport winds.  Temperatures will be below seasonable and mixing heights will be good.

 

Most of the region will be dry on Sunday other than a few showers far north.  Flow aloft will be from NW with upper-level ridging offshore.  Temperatures will be near or below seasonable.  Light winds will mostly come from N with good mixing heights.

 

Monday will be dry with NW flow aloft.  Winds will come from NNW-N with seasonable temperatures.  Mixing heights will be good.  Mostly dry weather lasts into early next week.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601-612 and 639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2900 to 3900 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, May 15, 2026.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.