SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
June 25, 2026 2:30 PM Pete Parsons
*********************************************************************
We Need Your Feedback!
The Smoke
Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more
effectively meets your needs. To assist
us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!
Below are a few
questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for
you. All ideas are welcome!
Is the “Short-Term
Discussion” useful? What would enhance
it?
Is the “Long-term
Discussion” useful? What would enhance
it?
How could the
“Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?
Is the “Outlook”
useful? What would enhance it?
Are the “Burning
Instructions” clear and concise? How
could they be improved for your use?
How do you access
the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?
We are considering
discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product. Is that something you currently use? Would you use it if you could get your
specific forecast from it faster?
Please Email your
feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov
Thank you!
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A Pacific weather system is spreading clouds, from NW to SE,
across Oregon this afternoon. Areas of mostly
light rain will push inland across all zones overnight, marking a transition
from the recent dry and warm weather to unseasonably cool and damp conditions. Coastal areas could pick up near .25” of rain
overnight with near or below .10” expected east of the coast range.
Friday, a cool upper-level trough follows the initial cold
front onshore and maintains mostly cloudy skies regionwide with occasional showers. Additional rainfall totals will be mostly .10”
or less. Temperatures drop to 5-10°F
below average. Cool air aloft should promote excellent daytime mixing with mostly
SW-W transport winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A reinforcing disturbance maintains an unseasonably cool
upper-level trough and increases shower activity on Saturday. Afternoon thundershowers are possible. Rainfall totals will vary but should mostly range
from .10” to .25”. Daytime temperatures drop
to 10-15°F below average, with excellent mixing and W-NW transport winds.
The upper-level trough weakens and pushes east on Sunday,
but a cool NW flow aloft remains somewhat unstable. The next reinforcing disturbance is expected
to be weaker but strong enough to bring scattered light showers to mainly the northern
zones. Additional rainfall totals will
be generally less than .10”. Temperatures
will warm a few degrees with cold air aloft maintaining excellent daytime
mixing. Winds will be mostly NW.
Monday, the main upper-level trough continues to progress eastward,
to over the Rockies. Another weak disturbance
in a cool NW flow aloft will maintain the threat of light showers across the NW
zones. Rainfall totals will be
minimal. Skies should be partly cloudy
elsewhere with temperatures recovering to within 5-10°F of average. Daytime mixing remains excellent with NW winds.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Zone 615-623
(South Coast Range and Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
3400 to 4400 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
10 - 20 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at
6 - 10 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 10
- 20 mph. Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 -
9 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 10
- 18 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10
mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, June 26,
2026.
=================================================================
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 west of R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 618,
619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA. South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 750
tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.