SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
November 3, 2025
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service recently
changed borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the
previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with these
updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast
zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A very moist and mild SW flow aloft will dominate the
weather this week. A low-pressure system
sweeping northward along a coastal frontal system will move onto the central Oregon
Coast tonight, enhancing rainfall across western zones and bringing brisk south
winds to the southern coastal zones.
After a brief respite Tuesday morning, a warm front will
keep mixing suppressed, as it spreads rain and increasing SE winds across the
region in the afternoon. A trailing cold
front will bring strong south winds to the coastal zones and breezy conditions
inland Tuesday night, along with locally heavy rainfall. Some coastal flooding is likely.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
In the wake of a strong cold front, rain turns to showers on
Wednesday with snow levels lowering to 5500 feet north and 6500 feet south. Cooling aloft should provide excellent mixing
with brisk SW winds, especially along the coast and over higher terrain.
Another mild Pacific storm will bring increasing rain and
brisk south wind Thursday afternoon and night with excellent mixing. In its wake, expect showers to slowly taper
off on Friday, as snow levels drop to about 5000 feet north and 7000 feet
south. Mixing should be excellent with winds
backing off and turning more westerly.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind E
to SE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to SE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to ESE to SE at 15 - 29 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 10 - 16 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ESE to SE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind SE
to S at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind SE
to S at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind E to
ESE at 10 - 16 mph.
Zone 615-623
(South Coast Range and Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface wind
increases to ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind S to SSW at 25 - 43 mph.
Surface wind SSE to S at 12 - 24 mph.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 12
- 24 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 -
12 mph.
FRIDAY
In the north
mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.
In the south mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising
above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, November
4, 2025.
=================================================================
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
620, 622, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible -
call the forecaster.
Zone 617
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.