SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 11, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Above seasonable temperatures are expected for Tuesday with S flow aloft and upper-level ridging.  Some showers and thunderstorms could develop along the Cascades late.  Winds will come from S-W.  Mixing heights will be fair to poor on the coast and mostly good inland.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level low offshore will move inland on Wednesday with increasing potential for showers.  Winds will be from SW-W, stronger for transport winds.  Temperatures will drop to near seasonable.  Mixing heights will improve across the region.

 

Thursday will have a few isolated showers and stay dry for most.  Flow aloft will be from W as upper-level troughing weakens and shifts east with broad ridging for the region.  Winds will be from W-N.  Near average temperatures will come with decreased mixing heights on the coast and good mixing inland.

 

Showers increase on Friday with SW flow aloft and broad upper-level troughing just to the north.  Winds will be onshore and temperatures decrease to near or below average.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 300 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 300 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 14 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 619 and 620

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.