SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
April 19, 2024
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
************** New
Permanent Forecast Office Hours ******************
To
best serve the field staff, the “year-round” ODF forecast office hours are Monday
– Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays). Written forecasts will include burning
instructions for the following day, and Friday’s forecasts will include burning
instructions through the next working day (usually the following Monday). Forecasts
are typically issued from October through June.
After
reviewing the written forecast, please call the ODF forecast line (503-945-7401)
with any burning-related questions. If
you have a need for weekend office staffing, please contact us in advance.
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******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service is changing
borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the previous zone
boundaries for smoke management and not change with the updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at
the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
An
upper-level ridge shifts east of the state on Saturday with increasing WSW flow
aloft pushing a weak frontal system onshore.
Light rain will spread eastward across
the northern zones in the afternoon with a few showers continuing through the
night. Rainfall totals will range from
near .25” on the north coast and coastal range to less than .10” across the
northern interior. SW interior zones may
stay dry. A switch to strong onshore
flow will cool temperatures to near average and somewhat inhibit mixing in the
coast range. Daytime mixing should be
excellent over the Cascades.
Sunday
looks partly cloudy with a few residual showers possible in the north, as a WNW
flow aloft dries the air mass. The air aloft
will stay cool enough for excellent daytime mixing, with near-average afternoon
temperatures. Transport winds will turn
NW across the northern zones and NW-N across the southern zones.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
On Monday, high pressure builds over the state with sunshine
warming temperatures to 5-10°F above average.
Warming aloft may slightly suppress mixing as transport winds turn
mostly N-NE.
The ridge shifts east of the state on Tuesday with increasing
SW flow aloft. Temperatures will get
capped at 5-10°F above average by increasing clouds and onshore flow in the
afternoon. A late-day shower is possible
south. Mixing should be excellent over
the Cascades but somewhat suppressed over the coast range. Progressively cooler and wetter weather is
likely late next week.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to SW to WSW and increases to 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 8 - 12 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 - 3100 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 6 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 8 - 14 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 5 - 9 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 6 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the north
mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during
the afternoon. In the south mixing
height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at
6 - 10 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4
- 8 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 12 mph. Surface
wind N to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to
4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, April 20 through 22, 2024.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, and 620
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616. Call the forecaster. Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in
Zone 620. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m.***
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 750
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 616
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.