SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, November 6, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Showers will decrease through the day on Friday with amounts under 0.10”.  Flow aloft will be from WNW as upper-level ridging builds offshore.  Surface winds will be light from S-W in northern zones and variable in southern zones.  Transport winds will be onshore.  Seasonable temperatures come with good mixing heights. 

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will be dry with high clouds and well above average temperatures.  Upper-level ridging will build warm air aloft and suppress mixing heights.  Surface winds will be light and offshore while transport winds will come from E-SE.

 

Dry weather and high clouds continue on Sunday.  Flow aloft will be from SW with the upper-level ridge moving east.  Surface winds will be light and variable while offshore.  Transport winds will come from SE-S.  Temperatures will climb well above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.

 

Monday will have partly sunny skies and dry weather except for a few showers in far northern zones.  Light surface winds will turn onshore.  Transport winds will come from SW-W.  Temperatures continue well above average.  Mixing heights will be fair to good.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

All Zones:

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SSW-WSW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, November 7, 2025.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.