SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
June 16, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Flow
aloft is WSW on Tuesday well ahead of a large upper trough centered in the Gulf
of Alaska. Conditions will generally be
sunny across West Oregon with seasonal temperatures. Good mixing opportunities are expected with
mainly SW-W winds.
A weak trough within
the SW flow reaches the coast on Tuesday night and early Wednesday for a chance
of light showers on the North Coast Range, less than .10” of moisture. Wednesday will otherwise be partly to mostly
sunny, still seasonal temperatures. Good
mixing is again expected with very light W transport winds.
The
upper low begins to move closer to the region on Thursday but the region will
be dry under partly to mostly sunny skies. Mixed conditions in the afternoon will be
very good with NW winds.
The upper low finally reaches the area on Friday to bring
much cooler conditions, 10-15oF below normal. Showers will potentially provide .10” to .25”
except the far south, where .10” or less will occur. Snow levels will range from 5000 ft in the far
north to 6500 ft far south. Mixing will
be very good with mainly W winds.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1900 - 2900 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
4100 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2600 - 3600 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 2900 - 3900 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4300 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3200 - 4200 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NW to NNW and increases to 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3400 to 4400 ft by late morning
rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft
by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning
rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft
by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph
during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4
- 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8
mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, June 17,
2025.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less. North of Tillamook in Zone
601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Limit burning in or near corridors.
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.