SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 2, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
The week ends
with cooler and showery weather on Saturday.
Rainfall amounts will be light and under 0.10” at the coast and up to
0.25” for the Cascades. An upper-level
trough will be just offshore with S-SSW flow aloft. Winds will come from NW-N. Mixing heights will improve.
Sunday will start
a stretch of dry and more stable weather.
Flow aloft will increase from N as the upper-level trough moves
inland. Mixing heights will be good at
the coast and better for the Cascades.
Temperatures will be near or below seasonable. Winds will come from NNW-NNE.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Monday will be
dry with light N flow aloft from upper-level
ridging. Surface winds will come from
NNW-NNE and transport winds will be from N-NE.
Mixing heights will be good on the coast and high for the Cascades. Temperatures will climb above average.
Upper-level
ridging will be over the region for Tuesday with dry and stable
conditions. Temperatures will rise to
well-above seasonable. Light surface
winds will be from NNW-NNE. Transport
winds will be light from N-NE. Mixing
heights will be good after a chilly morning start.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
All Zones:
MORNING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind NW
to N at 8 - 12 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late
morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. In the Coast Range transport
wind NNW to NNE at 8 – 16 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 20
mph during the afternoon. In the
Cascades transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 – 12 mph the morning becoming N to NE
at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
MONDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late
morning and through the afternoon. In
the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3800 to 4800 ft by
late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNE to NE at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 3 through 5, 2025.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T12S through T17S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6
miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster. South of
T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
620, and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.