SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
May 13, 2024
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service is changing
borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the previous zone
boundaries for smoke management and not change with the updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at
the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A dry upper-level trough increased the onshore flow today,
which cooled temperatures about 5-10°F from Sunday. However, skies remain generally clear, except
for some clouds along the coast. Good mixing
and NW transport winds allowed for considerable burning of units in central Oregon.
High pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday
with continued NW flow aloft and NW-N winds at the surface. The coast and NW interior will see some brief
morning marine clouds, otherwise expect sunny skies. Temperatures will remain about 5-10°F above average
with good daytime mixing over the coastal range and excellent mixing over the
Cascades and in central Oregon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper-level ridge strengthens on Wednesday, warming
temperatures to 10-15°F above average under sunny skies. Daytime mixing will remain better from the
Cascades to central Oregon than over the coastal range with continued NW-N surface
and transport winds.
The upper-level ridge flattens on Thursday in response to a
trough dropping SE from the northern Gulf of Alaska. NW winds will increase across all zones in the
afternoon with some clouds making it to the extreme NW zones. Temperatures may cool a few degrees in NW Oregon,
while holding fast or warming slightly across the south and east. Mixing will be better over the Cascades and
central Oregon than over the coastal zones.
Friday will bring some clouds to the northern zones, where the
threat of a light shower can’t be ruled out.
Southern zones should remain sunny.
All areas will see several degrees of cooling with brisk NW winds across
the northern zones veering to NW-N across the southern zones. Mixing will be excellent, especially in the north.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611, 639
and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning.
Transport wind NW
to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind N to
NE at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to
4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to
N at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNW at
10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 14 - 28 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind NW to NNW at 10
- 16 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 14,
2024.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro
or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher
tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3
miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.