SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
December 7, 2023
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ)
provisions apply from November 15 through February 15. Prescribed burning is not allowed on Red woodstove days in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15. Burning is allowed inside of SPZs on green and yellow woodstove
days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units
that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An approaching upper ridge will decrease the precipitation
on Friday with NW flow aloft, but it will generally push well mixed air across
the region. Areas of light rain and snow
showers will continue with snow levels at 2500 – 3000 feet. Mixing heights will generally be very good all
day but winds become light and variable in the afternoon, then mixing heights fall during the evening and transport winds tend to
become E-SE.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Another strong upper trough and
wet frontal system will arrive on Saturday as rain and mountain snow increase
again, becoming heavy at times Saturday night and mainly in the north. Snow levels will rise to 4-5000 feet during
the afternoon. The warm front will still
be offshore as warm air aloft causes poor mixing heights across West Oregon
throughout Saturday. Transport winds
will be mainly SE early becoming S in the afternoon.
The warm front will pass by
early on Sunday while a trailing cold front arrives during the day, causing
rain and snow above 5-6000 feet to continue.
The front will provide colder air aloft, which improves mixing heights moderately
in afternoon. Transport winds will be SSW
early trending SW-W in afternoon.
An upper-level
trough passing by will cause light rain and mountain snow showers while NW flow
will gradually end those late in the day.
Mixing conditions will be good with light W-NW transport winds.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind
increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8
mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind ESE to SSE at
8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4
- 8 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12
- 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 28 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind S to SSW at 8 -
16 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height 2000
- 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at
6 - 12 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N
at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, December
8, 2023.
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Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 611 and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.