SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
March 7, 2014 2:35 PM Doug Wesley
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
Oregon is
experiencing a drying and warming trend nearly statewide today. Winds are now
much weaker and afternoon mixing levels are healthy as we gradually evolve into
the spring season.
For the weekend, expect the next Pacific trough and frontal
system to begin increasing moisture, warmth and S-SW winds during the afternoon
on Saturday and rainy/windy conditions dominating from then through Sunday with
snow confined to the highest elevations. Cold frontal passage is likely early
on Sunday. Afternoon mixing levels will likely be healthy both days for most
areas.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Upper trough passage is expected Monday morning, and current
guidance is depicting a cooler, unsettled pattern with good ventilation most or
all of the day. At this point it appears that drying with weaker winds can be
expected for Tuesday.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface
wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 1500 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
SSW at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.
Zone 605-611 (North
Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
SSW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
SSW at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface
wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
SSW at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface wind
increases to S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors N and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to SSW to WSW and increases to 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind
increases to S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 2500 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
SSW at 22 - 38 mph.
Surface
wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing
height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at
13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the
afternoon. Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising
above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 9 -
15 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to
4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NE to E
at 8 - 12 mph. Surface
wind N to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, March 8
and 9, 2014.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15
miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 620
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Cascades
***Avoid ignitions
before 10 a.m. in Zone 611, 616, 617, 620 and 622.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Day 2 (Sunday
March 9):
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less. North of Tillamook in Zone
601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning in or near corridors.
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618
Units should be
2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 619 and 620
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in Zone 611, 616, 617, 620 and 622.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart. Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.
Zone 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.