SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, February 3, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please take extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge strengthens over Oregon on Wednesday with areas of morning fog giving way to sunshine.  After a cool start, daytime temperatures will be quite mild, but unseasonably warm air aloft will keep mixing poor with light offshore winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The ridge axis shifts eastward, to over Idaho, on Thursday with increasing southerly flow aloft over Oregon keeping freezing levels above 7000 feet.  Skies should remain sunny with mild daytime temperatures but poor mixing.  Light offshore winds may turn onshore along the coastal zones in the evening.

The upper-level ridge continues to weaken on Friday, allowing a decaying frontal system to spread some clouds and slightly cooler temperatures across the state.  Areas of light rain are possible across the north-coastal zones.  Slight cooling aloft will begin to improve mixing with winds turning SW across all zones.

SW flow aloft brings the next of what appears will be a series of progressively stronger weather systems ashore later Saturday.  Expect increasing clouds with continued very mild temperatures.  Mixing will be fair with S-SW transport winds.  Rain likely reaches the coast by late in the day and extends inland Saturday night.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NE to SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E to SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E to SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, February 4, 2026.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 616, and 617

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 620, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611 and 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.