SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, March 17, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Upper-level ridging will continue to bring stable conditions with lower mixing heights and light winds.  Flow aloft will be from SW with the ridge over the Southwest US.  Showers stay to the north on Wednesday with mostly sunny skies.  Winds will come from S-W, lighter for southern zones.  Temperatures will be well above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The weather stays nearly the same on Thursday with showers remaining north of the region.  The ridge will be over the Southwest US with SW flow aloft for Oregon.  Surface winds will be mostly light from S-WSW.  Transport winds are expected from SSW-SW.  Temperatures will be well above average.  Mixing heights will be low.

 

By Friday, the upper-level ridge will start to lessen impacts on the region.  Temperatures will cool some though staying above average.  Winds will come from SSW-NW, mostly light.  Mixing heights will generally stay fair.

 

Saturday could have a few showers north.  Flow aloft will come from W as the upper-level ridge shifts east.  Winds will turn to come from NW-N.  Temperatures will be closer to seasonable.  Mixing heights will improve.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 300 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 300 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SW-W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW-W and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SW-W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1400 to 2400 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, March 18, 2026.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, 615, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 619 and 620

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.