SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 25, 2016       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Current weather is rather non-descript with the region between weather systems. For tonight and Thursday a minor upper level trough will drop southward from SE Alaska toward the state. Onshore northwesterly flow will remain over the region keeping skies mostly cloudy with a chance of some sprinkles. Air mass will be mostly unstable.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level trough will stagnate over the region on Friday and remain overhead through the weekend, slowly weakening. Expect continued cool and cloudy conditions with some occasional drizzle or sprinkles. No appreciable rainfall is expected. Air mass will remain mostly unstable.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height 4000 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 26, 2016.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.