SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
May 12, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough moves
east of Oregon on Tuesday leaving N flow aloft over the region. Light showers are expected, mostly for the
Cascades where about .10” is possible and a snow level at 5-6000 feet. Skies will be partly sunny. Cooler low level air arriving will make
mixing potential moderate at best except remaining good in the South Cascades. Transport winds will range from SW-NW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
NNW flow aloft persists on Wednesday and Thursday and
pushes drier air across West Oregon, but skies remain partly
sunny with a few very light showers possible.
Mixing potential is good as heights rise through both afternoons and
transport winds will be W-NW.
A
cold front will arrive late on Friday while its associated upper trough follows
that night. Afternoon showers are likely
to develop in the NW corner of the state as the snow level rises over 7000
feet. Potential mixing across the region
is very good in the afternoon with very light winds, favoring NW.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind
increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1900 - 2900 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 6 - 12 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1000 - 1900 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2100 - 3100 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind W
to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind W to
NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
2600 - 3600 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4300 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height 1000
to 2000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning then rising to 3900
to 4900 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW
to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5
- 9 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 13,
2025.
=================================================================
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less. North of Tillamook in Zone
601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Limit burning in or near corridors.
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix -
see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.