SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 5, 2016       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Upper level pattern resembles what is known as a “high/low” block. An upper level ridge resides to the north and “sits” on top of an upper level low to the south. This pattern will likely bring variable clouds with afternoon showers or thundershowers moving around the low. Showers will move in from the east over the Cascades and the southern part of the state. The northwest corner of the state will remain mainly warm and dry. Expect brief early morning stability, becoming unstable during the day. Low-level wind flow will be mostly northerly.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

High/low block shifts eastward and weakens on Saturday with temperatures warming over the state and showers/thundershowers shifting further east. Air mass will become more stable. Later in the day marine air moves in and cools the air mass for Sunday. Expect marine low clouds Sunday morning with a chance of some sprinkles. Upper level trough moves through on Monday keeping skies mostly cloudy and temperatures cool.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind W to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 6, 2016.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.