SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 22, 2015       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

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Please note that ODF Smoke Management will be closed on Monday to observe the Memorial Day holiday. Smoke Management Forecasts and Instructions will be issued on Sunday afternoon to cover both Monday and Tuesday.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough will move south by southeast across western Oregon overnight and throughout Saturday, making the atmosphere unstable. Onshore flow will increase, and mixing conditions will only see limited improvement as cloudy skies limit daytime heating across western zones. Prescribed burning conditions will be somewhat better in eastern zones, as better mixing conditions develop Saturday afternoon. These gains will be tempered by pop-up showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades. The atmosphere will remain unstable Saturday evening after sunset. 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The Oregon coast will begin to stabilize Sunday morning, as the upper-level trough is stretched along the Cascades. Steady onshore flow will continue to bring in cool, moist air from the ocean, which will restrict mixing conditions Sunday afternoon in western zones again. Onshore flow will continue overnight into Monday, as another upper-level trough approaches from the Washington coast. The atmosphere will become unstable across western Oregon, helping improve mixing conditions significantly after sunrise. Showers will be widespread, with heavier rainfall and isolated thunderstorms over higher elevations Monday afternoon. Tuesday, an upper-level ridge begins to build offshore Oregon, signaling a transition to more stable weather. Onshore flow will weaken, allowing mixing conditions to improve quickly after sunrise. A surface ridge will form over the coastal waters, bringing an afternoon sea breeze with isolated showers. The atmosphere will dry out and stabilize after sunset, forming an inversion Tuesday evening.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft by sunset.

Transport wind NNE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 23, 2015.

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Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.