SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, January 30, 2015       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins
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**FAVORABLE BURNING OPPORTUNITIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY**

**This forecast is valid for both Saturday, January 31st and Sunday, February 1st 2015; please note that ODF Smoke Management will not be open during the weekend, so please call the forecaster to coordinate clearance for burns before 5pm Friday afternoon. The Smoke Management Instruction will be issued Monday through Friday to support prescribed burning until further notice.**

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere is stable and will remain so Friday overnight into Saturday, as an upper level ridge comes onshore. This will continue to strengthen a ridge at the surface east of the Cascades, producing offshore flow for western Oregon and breezy winds in northern zones near the Columbia Gorge. Mixing heights will begin poor under an inversion, but improve quickly as clear skies allow maximum daytime heating. The upper level ridge will push east of the Cascades after sunset, transitioning winds to weak onshore flow overnight Saturday.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern will transition into a more active period beginning Sunday, as an upper level trough begins to deepen offshore Oregon. Onshore flow will develop over Oregon, with mixing conditions starting poor and steadily improving all day as the atmosphere becomes unstable. A weak surface trough will bring showers to the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon, with some isolated rainfall reaching the southern Cascades after sunset. The upper level trough offshore will develop a surface frontal system that approaches North America early Monday. Moderate mixing will make the atmosphere more unstable, as a Cold Front approaches Monday after sunrise and brings widespread showers. Onshore flow will increase throughout the day. The Cold Front will decay and fall apart quickly as it enters the Cascades after sunset Monday evening.

A weak upper level ridge will be quickly approaching Oregon early Tuesday morning. The atmosphere will stabilize briefly as it passes over western Oregon, with onshore flow weakening slightly. Mixing conditions will start out marginal, with limited improvement throughout the day.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NE to E at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, January 31 and February 1, 2015.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 607, 608, 616, 617, and 623

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.