SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, March 16, 2015       9:15 AM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

************** Important Schedule and Product Updates **************

Due to significant rain over the weekend, this will be the final written daily forecast until drier weather returns and allows for spring burning to begin.  Please call the ODF forecaster at 503-945-7401 for additional consultation or smoke clearance.  The weather office will remain open on weekdays, from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.

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SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A potent atmospheric river event brought soaking rains to western Oregon over the weekend.  Northern zones received 2-5 inches of rain, with 1-3 inches south.  Locally greater totals fell over higher terrain.  In addition, strong southerly winds swept across the northern and central zones, on Sunday, gusting to over 80 mph along sections of the coast and over higher terrain in Cascades.  The Willamette Valley had wind-gusts to near 60 mph.  Winds gusted to near 50 mph across north-central Oregon, where a strong rain-shadow effect made for only light rainfall totals.

Southwesterly flow aloft continues over Oregon today, but the main rain bands have weakened and shifted mostly east of the region.  Some showers are still possible today across the southern zones.  Ample low-level moisture and minor stabilization of the air mass has led to the formation of widespread valley fog and low clouds this morning west of the Cascades.

Expect partial clearing this afternoon, especially across the northern zones.  The air aloft is cool enough to support good afternoon mixing with snow levels near 6000 feet north and 7000 feet south.  Transport winds will have a northerly component across the northern zones but remain mostly southerly across the southern zones.

A weaker but cooler weather system is expected to bring more showers to the northern zones on Tuesday with a chance of showers south.  Snow levels will drop to near 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south.  Mixing will be good with mostly SW transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A transitory ridge of high pressure will clear skies on Wednesday with light transport winds turning mostly northerly.  That may allow for pile-burning in areas just south of SSRAs.  The ridge will flatten on Thursday with transport winds turning back onshore by the afternoon.  Another stretch of wet weather is set to begin on Friday and continue into next week.

2.  DISPERSION

 

MONDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning done on Monday, March 16, 2015.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, and 612

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.