SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, February 6, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge that has been providing dry and stagnant weather is finally weakening.  Increasing SW flow aloft will push a weather system onshore Saturday.  Clouds increase with rain moving onto the north coast in the morning then south and east across all zones during the afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will remain mild, as mixing improves with increasing S-SW winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Rain continues across all on Sunday with snow levels dropping to 4500 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Temperatures cool close to seasonal normals.  Rain totals could exceed an inch west of the Cascades, especially north, but will taper off less than .25” in in north-central Oregon.  Mixing becomes good with brisk S-SW winds ahead of the front veering to NW in its wake.

A weak upper-level trough maintains mostly cloudy skies on Monday with a few residual showers, mainly north.  Snow levels drop to about 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south with cooler air aloft providing excelling daytime mixing.  Transport winds weaken and turn SW-W across the northern zones and NW-NE across the southern zones.

A split-flow jet stream pattern develops by Tuesday, with Oregon sandwiched between one branch of the jet over SW Canada and the other over California.  That will maintain some clouds but generally dry conditions.  The air aloft will stay cool but some reduction in mixing is likely with transport winds turning offshore.  Temperatures remain near average with little change in snow levels.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to E at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, February 7 through 9, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611 and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.