SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 16, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Information
Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the
forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
There will be significant
changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts will be
issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and
Fridays unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning
instructions for multiple days.
The forecast phone
recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to call
the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke
clearance through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be
made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough sweeps
across the area early Saturday along with a cold front. It will dramatically cool the region while
providing a few light showers in the north, less than .05” of rainfall. Look for partly to mostly sunny skies with
temperatures still a little above seasonal levels. Mixing conditions will generally be good the afternoon as winds turn mostly NW.
A stronger trough approaches
from the west on Sunday while winds aloft turning SW. Skies will be mostly sunny but mixing heights
only fair or moderate. Light N-NE winds
in the morning turn NW-N during the afternoon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The upper trough slows its
approach on Monday, still sitting slightly offshore. Partly sunny skies provide a chance of very
light showers and temperatures remain near normal. Mixing will be moderate to good with light
and mostly W winds.
The stronger
part of the trough moves into California on Tuesday with a remnant passing over
West Oregon. But skies will be mostly
sunny and mixing becomes good in afternoon with very light NW-NNE breezes.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
3200 - 4200 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
4200 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to N to NE and increases to 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind
increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
1600 - 2600 ft.
Transport wind SW
to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4100 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1700 - 2700 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to N to NE and increases to 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
increases to N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3900 - 4900 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NNE to NE and increases to 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3200 - 4200 ft.
Transport wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to
3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming
NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable.
MONDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning
rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft
by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to
4600 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 17 through 19, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612 - call the forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603 - call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 620
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River - call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 610, 611,
616, 617, 620, 622, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Avoid ignitions north of T24S
in Zone 616.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed
if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.