SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, November 26, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins


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ODF Weather will be closed on Thursday, November 27th to observe Thanksgiving. We will re-open on Friday, November 28th to provide smoke management prescriptions for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will become unstable overnight, as an upper level trough deepens offshore from Washington. A surface frontal system will swing its cold front onshore Thursday morning, increasing mixing as winds build up. Precipitation will be widespread across all zones, with higher elevations seeing heavy showers at times. The frontal boundary will weaken as it enters the Cascades after sunset, and stall out overnight.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An active weather pattern develops for the holiday weekend. A secondary upper level trough will dive south from the Canadian coast, re-energizing the stalled out cold frontal boundary Friday morning. This will keep the atmosphere unstable, with great mixing conditions and onshore flow. Rainfall will be widespread and persistent, as the trough deepens and the cold frontal boundary at the surface slowly pushes south overnight into Saturday. Mixing will remain favorable due to instability near the boundary. The upper level trough will finally pass early Sunday, allowing the atmosphere to become more stable in northern zones. Offshore flow will begin to develop in northern Oregon, as a weak surface ridge forms east of the Cascades. Mixing will be fair, with breezy winds near the Columbia Gorge.

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors W and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind SSE at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SE to S at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  In the Cascades mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 28 - 48 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 16 - 26 mph during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.  In the Cascades surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4200 to 5000 ft by late morning lowering to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming ESE to SE at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 14 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday and Friday, November 27 and 28, 2014.

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For Thursday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. 

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. 

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 12 p.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in Zone 616, 617, 620 and 622.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Day 2 instruction:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.