SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 23, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Information
Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the
forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
There will be significant
changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts will be
issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and
Fridays unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning
instructions for multiple days.
The forecast phone
recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to call
the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke
clearance through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be
made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
The trough continues moving south, offshore from Oregon
on Sunday to bring SW flow aloft. Rain
is likely for much of the area, delayed until that night in the South
Cascades. Moisture on Sunday and Sunday night
will be .25” to .50” and the snow level 6-7000 feet. Mixing will improve somewhat in the afternoon
as winds become SSW-SW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The trough moves inland on Monday near the SW corner of
Oregon. Clouds and showers continue
through the day with up to another .25” of rainfall, mainly in mountains. The snow level remains around 6000 feet,
temperatures slipping a little below seasonal.
Burning conditions greatly improve by the
afternoon with light NW winds.
The trough remains over
the area on Tuesday in a much-weakened state.
The chance of showers continues under mostly cloudy skies and continuing cool. Mixing again
will be very good in the afternoon with mostly W winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
1000 - 1600 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1200 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1100 - 2100 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind E
to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
1000 - 1600 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2600 - 3600 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to
3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning
becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
MONDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning
rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft
by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the north transport wind light and variable
during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon. In the south
transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning
becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
TUESDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late
morning and through the afternoon. In
the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by
late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 24 through 26, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610 and 611
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 612, 615,
and 616 west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T29S in Zone 616 - call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Zone 618, 619,
and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T35S in Zone 620
units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from
downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
Zone 601
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 and 617
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.