SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, December 7, 2023       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed on Red woodstove days in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15. Burning is allowed inside of SPZs on green and yellow woodstove days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An approaching upper ridge will decrease the precipitation on Friday with NW flow aloft, but it will generally push well mixed air across the region.  Areas of light rain and snow showers will continue with snow levels at 2500 3000 feet.  Mixing heights will generally be very good all day but winds become light and variable in the afternoon, then mixing heights fall during the evening and transport winds tend to become E-SE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION     

Another strong upper trough and wet frontal system will arrive on Saturday as rain and mountain snow increase again, becoming heavy at times Saturday night and mainly in the north.  Snow levels will rise to 4-5000 feet during the afternoon.  The warm front will still be offshore as warm air aloft causes poor mixing heights across West Oregon throughout Saturday.  Transport winds will be mainly SE early becoming S in the afternoon. 

The warm front will pass by early on Sunday while a trailing cold front arrives during the day, causing rain and snow above 5-6000 feet to continue.  The front will provide colder air aloft, which improves mixing heights moderately in afternoon.  Transport winds will be SSW early trending SW-W in afternoon.

An upper-level trough passing by will cause light rain and mountain snow showers while NW flow will gradually end those late in the day.  Mixing conditions will be good with light W-NW transport winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 16 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Friday, December 8, 2023.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611 and 616

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.