SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, October 5, 2026 2:30 PM Pete Parsons

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Information Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:

Like last year, the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).

There will be significant changes this season (details below):

Written forecasts will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.

The forecast phone recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.

Please continue to call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).

Thank you!

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A flat upper-level ridge, centered over the Four Corners region of the U.S., is bringing unseasonably sunny and warm weather to Oregon. The exception is along the immediate coastal strip, which has remained seasonably cool under a blanket of low clouds and fog today. Warm air aloft is suppressing mixing with mostly NW-NE transport winds.

Little change in the weather pattern is expected through Wednesday, as the flat upper-level ridge strengthens slightly over the state. Expect mostly sunny and very warm conditions, except for considerable fog and low clouds along the coast and locally inland during the early morning hours. Warm air aloft will keep mixing suppressed with NW-NE transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge builds to a peak on Thursday, which may also clear skies along the coastal strip. Temperatures will approach record-warm levels. Unseasonably warm air aloft will keep mixing suppressed with mostly N-NE winds.

On Friday, a mostly dry weather system cools the air aloft and brings strong NW flow near the surface. Expect some increase in clouds, mainly north, but the threat of showers appears to be limited to near the Washington border. Temperatures will cool to near average along the coast and to about 5-10°F above average inland. Mixing and general air quality should improve in the afternoon.

The latest forecast model guidance has an impressive upper-level trough bringing showers and much cooler temperatures this weekend.

2. DISPERSION

TUESDAY

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon. In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

- Valid for burning done Tuesday and Wednesday, October 6 and 7, 2026.

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For Tuesday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606 - call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 639, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.

Zone 616

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

For Wednesday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 602, 603, and 616 east of R9W

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 610, and 616

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606 - call the forecaster. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart.

Zone 607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

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4. SPECIAL NOTES:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/smi.htm

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

mile from a downwind SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.