SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Tuesday,
January 6, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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* Special Protection Zone
(SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February
15. Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1
through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either
“Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.” Burning
is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and
limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within
nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Two cold fronts are expected for West Oregon. One arrives tonight then another late on Wednesday
along with an upper trough to make conditions colder. Temperatures will fall
5-10oF below seasonal values.
Precipitation increases late today and continues through Wednesday, moisture
totaling 1.00” to 2.00” in the north while much lighter in the south. Snow levels fall late Wednesday as the second
front arrives, 2500 feet north and 4500 feet south. Colder air aloft and the trough will team up
to cause excellent mixing conditions through the day with winds becoming W-NW in
afternoon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Rain and
snow gradually decrease on Thursday under NW flow aloft and as an upper ridge
builds into the coast. Another .10” to 25”
will be typical in the North Coast Range, .25” to .50” for the Cascades and
less elsewhere. Snow levels will be
mainly 2000-3000 feet. Mixing improves
through the day with SW-W winds.
The ridge
continues to build on Friday causing mixing heights to not rise during the day
while wind is directed offshore. No
precipitation is expected but skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Poor burning conditions are expected with light
SE transport winds.
The ridge remains dominant through the weekend though
a trough brushes across the north side by Sunday. There is a chance of light rain on the north
coast for both Saturday and Sunday, but skies otherwise remain partly to mostly
cloudy throughout the area. Mixing conditions
remain poor on Saturday with mostly SE winds, and little to no improvement is
expected Sunday.
2. DISPERSION
WEDNESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to SW at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to W to NW at 15 - 29 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW at 20 - 36 mph.
Surface wind W to
WNW at 10 - 22 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 10 - 18 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 10 - 16 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW at 20 - 36 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
4200 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to SW at 10 - 16 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W
to WNW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W
to WNW at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 10 - 16 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind SW
to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and
through the afternoon. In the south
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning
rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind ESE to SSE at
6 - 12 mph. Surface wind light and
variable.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1700 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind ESE to SSE at
6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Wednesday, January
7, 2026.
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Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
All zones except
Zone 610 and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T15S through T20S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.