SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 27, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

******************* Final Forecast of the Season ********************

Written prescribed-burning forecasts will resume in October.  You may always call the ODF forecast office for verbal burning clearance or consultation at 503-945-7401.  Normal days/hours are Monday – Friday, from 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on state holidays).

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

The weekend warms up with building influence from upper-level ridging.  Saturday will have onshore flow aloft with temperatures near or above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be mostly good but with warmer air aloft.  Surface winds will come from NW-N and transport winds will be from NNW-NNE.

 

Sunday will be dry and warm, with a very isolated potential for thunderstorms far south late.  Flow aloft will be light from W then S as upper-level ridging builds.  A thermal trough will develop along the coast.  Surface winds will be from NNW-NNE, lighter inland.  Transport winds will come from NNE on the coast and more variable inland, offshore at times.  Temperatures will rise 5-10° above average and mixing heights will be suppressed for coastal zones.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Warm temperatures continue Monday with highs 10-15° above seasonable north and 5-10° above south.  Some afternoon thunderstorms are possibly south as well as along and east of the Cascades.  Flow aloft will come from SW with broad upper-level ridging.  Mixing heights will be suppressed along the coast and mostly good inland.  Winds will come from NNW-NNE, more variable inland as the thermal trough shifts east.

 

Some isolated thunderstorms could develop along and east of the Cascades for Tuesday with light SW flow aloft as the impact of upper-level ridging weakens.  Winds will be from NW-NNE and more breezy on the coast while variable, but turning more onshore for the Cascades.  Temperatures cool some to near or above average.  Mixing heights will be mostly good.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NNW-N and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW-NNW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW-NNW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, June 28 through 30, 2025.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606 - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620, 622, and 623

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 623

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.