SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
June 27, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
******************* Final Forecast
of the Season ********************
Written prescribed-burning
forecasts will resume in October. You
may always call the ODF forecast office for verbal burning clearance or
consultation at 503-945-7401. Normal days/hours
are Monday – Friday, from 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on state holidays).
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
The weekend warms
up with building influence from upper-level ridging. Saturday will have onshore flow aloft with
temperatures near or above seasonable.
Mixing heights will be mostly good but with warmer air aloft. Surface winds will come from NW-N and
transport winds will be from NNW-NNE.
Sunday will be
dry and warm, with a very isolated potential for thunderstorms far south
late. Flow aloft will be light from W
then S as upper-level ridging builds. A
thermal trough will develop along the coast.
Surface winds will be from NNW-NNE, lighter inland. Transport winds will come from NNE on the
coast and more variable inland, offshore at times. Temperatures will rise 5-10° above average
and mixing heights will be suppressed for coastal zones.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Warm temperatures
continue Monday with highs 10-15° above seasonable north and 5-10° above
south. Some afternoon thunderstorms are
possibly south as well as along and east of the Cascades. Flow aloft will come from SW with broad
upper-level ridging. Mixing heights will
be suppressed along the coast and mostly good inland. Winds will come from NNW-NNE, more variable
inland as the thermal trough shifts east.
Some isolated
thunderstorms could develop along and east of the Cascades for Tuesday with
light SW flow aloft as the impact of upper-level ridging weakens. Winds will be from NW-NNE and more breezy on the coast while variable,
but turning more onshore for the Cascades. Temperatures cool some to near or above
average. Mixing heights will be mostly
good.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NNW-N and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NW-NNW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NW-NNW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late
morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind NNE
to ENE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft
during the afternoon. In the Cascades
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning
rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5
- 9 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late
morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, June 28 through 30, 2025.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T12S through T17S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3
miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 616 and 617
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620, 622,
and 623
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher
tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602, 603,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit tonnage north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro
or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher
tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North
Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 616 and 617
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 623
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.