SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 9, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
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Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year,
the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
There will be
significant changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts
will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays,
and Fridays unless updates are needed.
Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.
The forecast phone
recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to
call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special
smoke clearance through October.
Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF
field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge that brought unseasonably sunny and
warm weather this week gave way to weak cold front dropping SE from the Gulf of
Alaska today. A narrow band of clouds
and light showers is moving across NW Oregon this afternoon and will slowly
advance south and east across the state this evening. In its wake, a cool upper-level trough will
drop southward over Oregon on Saturday, bringing partly cloudy and cooler
weather with a few scattered showers, mainly north and over higher
terrain. Daytime mixing will be
excellent with mostly NW transport winds.
Temperatures will drop to below average.
The upper-level trough will weaken as it slowly advances south
and east on Sunday, with a dry but continued cool northerly flow aloft clearing
skies. After a chilly morning, afternoon
temperatures will recover close to average with good daytime mixing and brisk
NE winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
High pressure builds back over the region Monday and
Tuesday. Expect mostly clear skies with
cool mornings and near-average afternoon temperatures. Expect morning inversions with good afternoon
mixing and progressively weaker NW-NE transport winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind
shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-623
(South Coast Range and Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NNE to ENE at
10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NNE to NE at
15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
NE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the morning
becoming N to NE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising to 4400 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 6 - 10
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 10 through 12, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
620, and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
616, and 617
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 623
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
For Monday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
and 616
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRA if
burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606 - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, 611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617 units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.