SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, November 22, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will begin to stabilize overnight, as an upper level ridge builds offshore Oregon. Onshore flow will be enhanced Sunday morning, as a weak mid-level trough skims across northern zones. Mixing conditions will start out fair, and improve early with rain showers. The trough will exit the region by sunset, with mixing conditions deteriorating rapidly after dark.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Stable weather will develop into early next week, with progressively worse mixing each day. The upper level ridge will continue to build towards the Oregon coast on Monday, weakening onshore flow as a surface ridge forms near the Coast Range. Fog beneath an inversion is likely in river valleys. Winds will be light and influenced by local terrain. Mixing heights will be suppressed as well. Stable conditions will persist into Tuesday, as the upper level ridge moves onshore, then weakens over western Oregon Wednesday. The surface ridge will progress slowly east as well, keeping winds light. Mixing conditions will deteriorate steadily under stable conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft by sunset.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 2000 ft by sunset.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 22 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 23, 2014.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.