SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday, January 30, 2015 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins
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**FAVORABLE BURNING OPPORTUNITIES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY**
**This forecast is valid for both Saturday,
January 31st and Sunday, February 1st 2015; please note
that ODF Smoke Management will not be open during the weekend, so please
call the forecaster to coordinate clearance for burns before 5pm Friday
afternoon. The Smoke Management Instruction will be issued Monday through
Friday to support prescribed burning until further notice.**
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The atmosphere is
stable and will remain so Friday overnight into Saturday, as an upper level
ridge comes onshore. This will continue to strengthen a ridge at the surface
east of the Cascades, producing offshore flow for western Oregon and breezy
winds in northern zones near the Columbia Gorge. Mixing heights will begin poor
under an inversion, but improve quickly as clear skies allow maximum daytime
heating. The upper level ridge will push east of the Cascades after sunset,
transitioning winds to weak onshore flow overnight Saturday.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The weather pattern
will transition into a more active period beginning Sunday, as an upper level
trough begins to deepen offshore Oregon. Onshore flow will develop over Oregon,
with mixing conditions starting poor and steadily improving all day as the
atmosphere becomes unstable. A weak surface trough will bring showers to the
Oregon coast Sunday afternoon, with some isolated rainfall reaching the
southern Cascades after sunset. The upper level trough offshore will develop a
surface frontal system that approaches North America early Monday. Moderate
mixing will make the atmosphere more unstable, as a Cold Front approaches
Monday after sunrise and brings widespread showers. Onshore flow will increase
throughout the day. The Cold Front will decay and fall apart quickly as it
enters the Cascades after sunset Monday evening.
A weak upper level
ridge will be quickly approaching Oregon early Tuesday morning. The atmosphere
will stabilize briefly as it passes over western Oregon, with onshore flow
weakening slightly. Mixing conditions will start out marginal, with limited
improvement throughout the day.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind NE
to E at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind NE
to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind NE
to E at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind NE
to E at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind
increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
increases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind NE
to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
increases to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind NE
to E at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind NE
to E at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind
ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind E
to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind E
to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind becomes
light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to
2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early
rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to
2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon. In the Coast Range transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the
afternoon. In the Cascades transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 15 - 25 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8
- 14 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph during
the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, January 31
and February 1, 2015.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
No burning
allowed.
Zone 607, 608,
616, 617, and 623
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15
miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone recording
is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing
height: No burning within 10 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.