SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, October 21, 2014       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Strong westerly flow aloft was still producing a few showers this afternoon, mainly across the northern zones.  A very weak transitory ridge will continue a general drying trend into this evening, with locally brisk south to SW transport winds.

The most potent storm so far this autumn will bring increasing rain and strong south winds to the coastal zones tonight.  Heavy rain will slowly advance across all zones by Wednesday night, with locally strong winds along the coast and over higher terrain.  Rain totals of 1-2 inches will be common in the western valleys, with 2-4 inches, or greater, over higher terrain.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The cold front is forecast to push east of the region by Thursday, but strong SW flow aloft will maintain ample showers.  Snow levels should remain generally above 6000 feet north and 8000 feet south.

Another weather system is forecast to intensify just offshore on Friday, likely spreading more rain and possibly strong winds across the region.  Showery and blustery conditions will continue through the weekend, with snow levels finally dropping to 5-6000 feet.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 4000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to WNW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSE at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 22 - 40 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

Instructions are valid for burning done on Wednesday, October 22, 2014.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.