SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, February 27, 2015       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

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The current stretch of dry and mild weather has prompted an increase in wintertime burning requests, so we have decided to resume issuing daily written forecasts/instructions until wet weather returns.

The forecast office is open from 7:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. Monday – Friday. Please call the ODF forecaster, at 503-945-7401, if you need additional information or further smoke clearance.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will begin to stabilize overnight, as an upper-level trough slides south into California and an upper-level ridge builds in quickly behind it Saturday morning. A weak surface ridge will form over western Washington, shifting winds to a weak offshore flow with cold air aloft providing good mixing under partly cloudy skies. Southern zones will see stronger offshore flow and better mixing as a thermal trough extends north from California. The atmosphere will remain stable Saturday evening as the upper-level ridge moves into western Oregon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge will provide clear skies and stable conditions early Sunday morning. Remnant moisture from Friday’s storm will help form valley fog in northern zones, with light and variable winds. Mixing conditions will start out fair, but improve slowly after sunrise as the fog burns off. Conditions will differ in southern zones, as a thermal trough creeps northwest out of California, increasing offshore winds and mixing conditions faster. The atmosphere will become unstable after sunset as a weak upper-level trough approaches from offshore Washington. This feature will support a surface trough that will move south along the Oregon coast before sunrise Monday, enhancing onshore flow and maintaining good mixing conditions throughout Monday. As this feature will move quickly through our region, it is not expected to gather much moisture; isolated rainshowers will fall mainly in the Coast Range in higher elevations.  An upper-level ridge will begin to build back in from offshore North America Monday evening after sunset, stabilizing the atmosphere. A surface ridge will form over the northern Oregon coast, weakening onshore flow and forming inversions overnight. Mixing conditions will start out poor, with only limited improvement as the surface ridge is strengthened and pushes into Willamette Valley Tuesday morning. Southern zones will see the most favorable conditions for prescribed burning, as the thermal trough continues to enhance offshore flow and mixing conditions on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday evening will see the atmosphere destabilize slowly as a weak mid-level trough passes beneath the dominant upper-level ridge, bringing cloudy skies to Oregon overnight.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 10 - 20 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NE to ENE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind NE at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 20 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind NE at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind NNE to NE at 10 - 20 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind increases to NNE to NE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind NE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind E to SE at  6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind NE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind E to SE at  6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind NE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind E to SE at  6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, February 28 and March 1, 2015.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639 and 610

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 616, 617, 620, and 623

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 623

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.