SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, May 26, 2023 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

************************* Holiday Schedule **************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed over Memorial Weekend (May 27th – 29th). Today’s forecast includes burning instructions for Saturday, May 27th through Tuesday, May 30th (4 days).

A forecaster is available at 503-945-7401 until 5 p.m. today (Friday), to handle questions regarding weekend burning. The office will reopen at 7 a.m. on Tuesday, May 30th.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A weak upper-level low will replace the brief ridging and bring mostly to partly cloudy skies on Saturday. Some storms could develop along and east of the Cascades. Temperatures drop to near average and mixing heights will be fair to good. Winds come from NW-NNW.

The upper-level low drops south into California on Sunday with weak ridging offshore. Skies turn mostly sunny with a very isolated risk of Cascades storms. Surface winds come from NW-N. Transport winds will be NNW-NNE and more variable east of the Cascades. Mixing heights stay fair to good and temperatures reach near or above seasonable.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

On Monday, the upper-level low will be far south and a shortwave of upper-level ridging will promote clear skies. Temperatures rise above average and mixing heights continue fair to good. Surface winds will be NW-N and transport winds will be WNW-N.

Flow aloft comes from W on Tuesday with sunny skies. Winds come from WNW-N with above average temperatures. Mixing heights will be good.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

- Valid for burning done Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, May 27 - 30, 2023.

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For Saturday:

Coast Range

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 5 p.m. in all zones.***

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed. Some burning is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.

Cascades

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

For Sunday:

Coast Range

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 5 p.m. in all zones.***

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed. Some burning is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 623

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

For Monday:

Coast Range

***Avoid ignitions before 12 p.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 5 p.m. in all zones.***

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed. Some burning is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.

Cascades

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

For Tuesday:

Coast Range

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 617, and 623

Zone 610

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/smi.htm

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

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product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

mile from a downwind SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.