SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, November 14, 2025       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is “Exempt Wood Burning Device” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A split-flow jet stream pattern will direct one branch of storm activity at Washington and the other at California through this weekend.  That will keep some clouds over Oregon but limit shower activity to mainly across the NW zones.  Freezing levels will be unseasonably high with warm air aloft suppressing mixing, despite above-average surface temperatures. Light winds on Saturday will turn southerly on Sunday, as the next weather system increases rain chances in the afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

On Monday, a weak weather system splits apart as it comes onshore, with the bulk of its moisture getting directed into California.  Expect cloudy skies with areas of very light rain.  Rainfall should be mostly less than .10”.  Snow levels will only drop to 5-6000 feet, with continued marginal daytime mixing and light SE-W winds.

The split-flow jet stream pattern continues through Tuesday, which should bring a break between storm systems.  Expect partly sunny skies, but the threat of light showers can’t be ruled out.  Snow levels will hold near 5000 feet.  Mild surface temperatures and slight cooling aloft will improve mixing with light NW-NE winds.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, November 15 through 17, 2025.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 616, 617, and 623

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639 and 610

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.***

 

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.