SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, December 5, 2022       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed on Red woodstove days in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15. Burning is allowed inside of SPZs on green and yellow woodstove days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION­­

An upper-level trough currently centered over SW Oregon pushes south and east of the region on Tuesday with a weak and transitory ridge bringing a drier NW-NE flow aloft.  Areas of morning drizzle are possible, mainly north and along the coast, otherwise expect at least partial clearing.  Transport winds will turn weakly onshore which should slightly improve mixing and return temperatures to near average.  Snow levels will hold near 3000 feet.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The transitory ridge progresses east on Wednesday with increasing westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching weather system from the eastern Gulf of Alaska.  Look for increasing clouds with a chance of rain on the coast by evening.  Mixing should continue to improve with S-SW transport winds maintaining near-average temperatures.

On Thursday, a strong cold front will bring rain and brisk S-SW winds in the morning, followed by showers in the afternoon.  Mixing should be good with cooling aloft dropping snow levels to 2-3000 feet.  Temperatures will remain near average.

On Friday, another strong weather system will bring increasing rain, mountain snow, and E-SE winds.  Snow levels will hold at 2-3000 feet.  Mixing should be good despite below-average surface temperatures.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601-612 and 639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, December 6, 2022.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612 and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.