SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, December 2, 2021 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

*********************************************************************

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Friday starts with patchy morning fog, turning to partly sunny skies. Flow aloft comes from the W with surface temperatures climbing 5F above average south and just a few degrees above average north. Warming aloft will suppress mixing with snow levels over 6000 feet for all but far northern zones. Light transport winds will be variable in northern zones and from SW in southern zones

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

On Saturday, a short-wave trough moves through Washington and the northern half of Oregon, bringing a chance for showers. Upper-level flow will turn from the WNW after the trough passes. Mixing improves and transport winds come from SSW-WSW. Temperatures will be near average north and unseasonably warm south.

 

Upper-level flow comes from the NW on Sunday with temperatures staying near seasonable north and warmer south. Skies turn from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Transport winds come from NNW-NNE with fair mixing. Rain holds off until overnight.

 

A potent system arrives Monday with a chance for rain and Cascades snow. Upper-level flow turns from W to NW as the system passes through. Excellent mixing will come with increasing SW-W transport winds. Snow levels drop below 4000 feet for the northern Cascades. Surface temperatures climb to just above average.

 

2. DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

In the north mixing height 2600 to 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 1100 to 2100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 23 - 41 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 19 - 33 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

- Valid for burning done Friday, December 3, 2021.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/smi.htm

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

 

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.