SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, October 30, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will become less stable as an upper level trough slowly progresses across western Oregon overnight. Rainfall will cover the region by sunrise ahead of a surface cold front. Mixing conditions will show progressive improvement as onshore flow increases. The upper level trough will pass east of the Cascades Friday evening, causing the surface cold front to weaken as it crosses the mountains.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Colder air aloft will pour into Oregon on Saturday morning, dropping the freezing level to around 4,500ft. Some showers will persist over the Cascades, but taper off after sunrise. Saturday afternoon, an upper level ridge will begin to build in from the west, stabilizing the atmosphere and beginning a brief period of drying out. Saturday evening, a surface ridge will begin to develop. This will help form nighttime inversions, bringing light winds and poor mixing for Sunday morning. Winds will shift to light offshore flow, with suppressed mixing Sunday afternoon. The stable atmosphere will persist into Sunday evening, when the upper level ridge over Oregon begins shift east of the Cascades.

An upper level trough will approach northern zones after sunrise on Monday. This will weaken the surface ridge and shift winds back to onshore flow. Mixing heights will see slight improvement in the afternoon hours as the atmosphere becomes less stable. Rainfall will occur in northern zones as the trough passes by.

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors S to SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors W to NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors N and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors W to NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft through the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 31, 2014.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.