SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
November 2, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process
Update:
Written forecasts
will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with
updates as needed. Forecasts will
include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).
With the pace and
scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to
maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to
the public.
Please call your
local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific
burns. If you are not sure who to
contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for
use primarily by ODF districts.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Upper-level ridging
that had impacted the region with poor ventilation will shift east, followed by
an upper trough that moves inland on Tuesday.
The weather will stay dry with mid to high level clouds and near average
temperatures. Mixing heights will be
poor north and fair south. Light surface
winds will be somewhat onshore. Transport
winds will be variable as the trough moves through.
Wednesday will start
with brief upper ridging, followed by a late cold front and associated
trough. Clouds will increase throughout the
day. Showers hold off until late and
mostly for northern zones. Temperatures
will be near to above seasonable with fair mixing heights. Light surface winds will be onshore. Transport winds will come from SW-W.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Some showers linger
early on Thursday, followed by dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Seasonable temperatures will come with fair to
good mixing heights. Surface winds will
be light and variable. Transport winds will
be variable on the coast and from W for the Cascades.
Upper-level ridging
builds off California with some systems moving over the ridge. Some showers are possible for northern zones
on Friday while southern zones likely stay dry. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are
expected. Light surface winds will be
variable. Transport winds will be mostly
from S-W. Mixing heights will be fair to
poor.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601-612 and
639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late
morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light
and variable.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 2900 to
3900 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 5 -
9 mph. Surface wind light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday and
Wednesday, November 3 and 4, 2026.
=================================================================
For Tuesday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639 and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 610 and 611
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 617, 620,
and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Wednesday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Zone 618, 619,
and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T35S in Zone 620
units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from
downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.