SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, April 24, 2015       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere remains unstable overnight, as an upper-level trough crosses the area before sunrise. Widespread showers will form Saturday morning with building onshore flow and optimal mixing conditions. The very cold air aloft moving into western Oregon Saturday afternoon will keep the atmosphere unstable, producing isolated thunderstorms across northern zones. The atmosphere will begin to stabilize after sunset Saturday, as an upper-level ridge begins to build offshore Oregon. Mixing conditions will deteriorate quickly overnight as a result.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern transitions to a period of stable weather, as the upper-level ridge builds over the Oregon coast Sunday morning. Onshore flow will weaken, and mixing conditions will improve quickly after sunrise. Spotty showers will impact northwestern Oregon, as a weak surface frontal boundary sweeps northeast into Washington. A surface ridge forming Sunday evening will create an inversion overnight, with morning fog restricting heating Monday morning. Mixing will improve late morning, but is restricted as the air aloft continues to warm. Light winds limit horizontal dispersion as well. The stable weather continues overnight Monday, leading to another inversion Tuesday morning. Light winds with poor mixing will shift to weak onshore flow Tuesday afternoon, as a weak surface frontal boundary approaches Oregon. The upper-level trough supporting this system will track northeast into the Canadian coast. The surface fronts will wash out and dissipate after sunset as a result, keeping the atmosphere stable.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 4200 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N and increases to 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, April 25, 2015.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.