SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
December 2, 2021
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information
****************
An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect
for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use
extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen
air quality within nearby SSRAs.
* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
Friday starts with patchy morning fog, turning to partly
sunny skies. Flow aloft comes from the W
with surface temperatures climbing 5°F above average south and just a few
degrees above average north. Warming
aloft will suppress mixing with snow levels over 6000 feet for all but far
northern zones. Light transport winds
will be variable in northern zones and from SW in southern zones
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
On
Saturday, a short-wave trough moves through Washington and the northern half of
Oregon, bringing a chance for showers.
Upper-level flow will turn from the WNW after the trough passes. Mixing improves and transport winds come from
SSW-WSW. Temperatures will be near
average north and unseasonably warm south.
Upper-level
flow comes from the NW on Sunday with temperatures staying near seasonable north
and warmer south. Skies turn from partly
cloudy to mostly cloudy. Transport winds
come from NNW-NNE with fair mixing. Rain
holds off until overnight.
A
potent system arrives Monday with a chance for rain and Cascades snow. Upper-level flow turns from W to NW as the
system passes through. Excellent mixing
will come with increasing SW-W transport winds.
Snow levels drop below 4000 feet for the northern Cascades. Surface temperatures climb to
just above average.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NNE
to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1700 - 2700 ft.
Transport wind NE
to E at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NE
to E at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height 1000
- 2000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and
through the afternoon. In the south
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning
rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SW
to W at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.
SUNDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and
through the afternoon. In the south
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and
through the afternoon. Transport wind
NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable.
MONDAY
In the north
mixing height 2600 to 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during
the afternoon. In the south mixing
height 1100 to 2100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at
23 - 41 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 19 - 33 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 10 -
18 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, December
3, 2021.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Complete
ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
***Complete
ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and he will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.