SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
December 5, 2024
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
**************** Air Stagnation
Advisory Information ****************
An Air Stagnation Advisory may
be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information).
Please use extra precautions and limit forestland
burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.
* Current Air Stagnation
Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *
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* Special Protection Zone
(SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15. Prescribed burning is not allowed on Red woodstove days in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15. Burning is allowed inside of SPZs on green and yellow woodstove
days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units
that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A very weak weather
system fell apart as it moved through a strong upper-level ridge over the region
today. It produced little-to-no precipitation
and didn’t improve ventilation. Stagnant
conditions will continue through Friday with widespread valley fog/frost giving
way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon.
Mixing will remain poor with light, mostly SE-S, winds. Air stagnation advisories are in effect for
most valley locations through 4 a.m. PST Saturday.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
On Saturday, the next
weather system will be stronger than its predecessor. Clouds will keep early-morning temperatures
warmer than they have been the past few mornings. Some light rain is likely in the afternoon
with inversions breaking and temperatures jumping to above average. Rainfall
totals may hit .50” north and .25” south.
Light S-SW winds should increase and turn SW-W in the afternoon.
A cool upper-level
trough will maintain a few showers and provide good mixing on Sunday with snow
levels dropping to 3000 feet north and 4000 feet south. SW winds in the morning will turn W-NW in the
afternoon with surface temperatures dropping back to near average.
High pressure
building offshore will stabilize the air mass, bringing a dry and cool
northerly flow aloft on Monday. Skies should
turn sunny, but temperatures will struggle to reach average. Cool surface temperatures
will keep mixing suppressed with N-NE transport winds.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors E to SE and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors SE to S and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
near 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors SE to S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to
3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during
the afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming N to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, December
6, 2024.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616 - call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
and 616
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of
T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible - call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
639, 610, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611 and 617
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.