SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 15, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
************************* Scheduling
Note ***************************
Daily written
forecasts/instructions have resumed! The ODF forecast office will be
staffed Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. Forecasts will be
issued on those afternoons and will include instructions for the following day. The
office will be closed on weekends and on
holidays. Friday’s forecasts will include instructions for Saturday
through Monday (through Tuesday, if Monday is a holiday).
As always, please call the
forecast office at 503-945-7401, if you need additional help or have
questions about smoke clearance.
*********************************************************************
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather
Service recently changed borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF
will use the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with
these updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke
forecast zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes
section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
North flow aloft
continues Thursday while an upper-level ridge arrives in the afternoon. The ridge will bring weakening winds while
persistent warm air aloft keeps mixing heights limited. Expect increasing clouds for NW Oregon in
afternoon but the rest of West Oregon will be generally sunny with near
seasonal temperatures. Mixing potential
is only fair across the area with light winds ranging mainly W-N.
A broad
ridge on Saturday with NW flow becomes W in the afternoon ahead of a strong
upper trough approaching from the west.
Clouds increase late for the north while remaining sunny south, and
there is a chance of showers late at the NW corner of the state. Mixing will generally be fair with variable
winds trending very lightly SW.
Rain will spread inland on Saturday night along with a cold
front. Rain will continue throughout the
area Sunday while the snow level drops to 5-6000 feet late in the day. Potential moisture is more than 1.00” for
northern mountains and north coast and .25” to .50” across the south. Mixing will be excellent all day in the north
while becoming excellent south with SW-W winds
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2100 - 3100 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2500
- 3500 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
increases to NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2900 - 3900 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind increases
to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to
4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to
3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
In the north
mixing height above 5000 ft all day. In
the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late
morning and through the afternoon.
Transport wind SW to W at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming SW to W
at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Thursday, October
16, 2025.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601
Units should be 1000
tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603 - call the forecaster.
Zone 612
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
- call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, 618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River - call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 616
units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 600
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be 300
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.