SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, October 23, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper level ridge will build over Oregon Friday, stabilizing the atmosphere and limiting mixing heights. Winds will be light, shifting to offshore flow early as a warm frontal boundary approaches from the south, bringing more rain to western Oregon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern will remain active into the weekend, as the upper level trough moves onshore near southern Washington. The atmosphere will become less stable Saturday as the cold front approaches, shifting winds to onshore flow and increasing mixing throughout the day. Showery weather will intensify as a result, with heavy rainfall possible in northern zones at higher elevations. The jet stream will carry the upper level trough east of the area overnight into Sunday, so the surface cold front will stall out in the Cascades and fall apart.

As a result, the atmosphere will begin to stabilize Sunday as an upper level ridge moves in and begins to build. Onshore flow will weaken as winds become light. Mixing will diminish as well, as a surface ridge begins to form. The stable atmosphere will persist overnight into Monday as well, as warm air aloft moves in ahead of an upper level trough forming offshore in the Pacific. Winds will shift onshore after sunrise, and build throughout the day. Mixing will increase Monday afternoon, as an upper level trough deepens offshore and slowly approaches Oregon. This trough will form a surface frontal system, which will bring rainfall to the northern zones Monday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind E to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind increases to ESE to SE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to SE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind E to ESE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind ENE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SE to S and increases to 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  In the Cascades mixing height 3400 to 4400 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 21 - 37 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 19 - 33 mph during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range surface wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades surface wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 21 - 37 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 21 - 37 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, October 24, 2014.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.