SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 10, 2024
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
**************
New Permanent Forecast Office
Hours ******************
To best serve the field staff, the “year-round” ODF forecast
office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state
holidays). Written forecasts will
include burning instructions for the following day, and Friday’s forecasts will
include burning instructions through the next working day (usually the
following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from October through June.
After reviewing the written forecast, please call the ODF forecast
line (503-945-7401) with any burning-related questions. If you have a need for weekend office
staffing, please contact us in advance.
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******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The
National Weather Service is changing borders and numbering of their fire
zones. ODF will use the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and
not change with the updates.
A
link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the
Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
Heat
lasts into Saturday as an upper-level ridge impacts the region with dry, stable
weather. Temperatures will rise 15° or
more above average but daily record highs are less likely than Friday. Onshore flow will gradually increase with
light winds from W-NW. Mixing heights
start with morning inversions, then rise high for the Cascades and stay fair to
good for the coast.
Onshore
flow for Sunday brings a few clouds to the coast, elsewhere staying dry and
sunny. The flattening upper-level ridge
will shift east and a shortwave upper-level trough will move through late with
SW flow aloft. Winds will come from W-NNW
with temperatures above seasonable but cooling down. After morning inversions, mixing heights will
be lower on the coast and rise high inland.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A few more clouds are expected Monday with NW flow as an
upper-level shortwave trough moves through early, followed by a return to
ridging. The region stays dry and
temperatures drop closer to seasonable.
Winds will come from NW-NNW.
Mixing heights will be good for the Cascades zones and fair for coastal
zones.
Upper-level ridging builds offshore on Tuesday with N flow aloft. Winds will be northerly at the surface and
from N-NNE for transport winds.
Temperatures will be above average.
Mixing heights will be fair to good.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind similar to morning.
Surface wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611, 639
and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.
Transport wind W
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors N and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft
during the afternoon. In the Cascades
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning
rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW
at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late
morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind WNW to
NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 11 through 13, 2024.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. Higher tonnage is possible
south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 619
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T35S. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
All zones except
Zone 610 and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T15S through T20S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612. Call the forecaster. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S in Zone 616.
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. Some burning is possible south
of T17S in Zone 603. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612. Call the forecaster. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S in Zone 616.
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. Higher tonnage is possible
south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T12S through T17S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 610
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.