SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, December 30, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Upper-level ridging will have suppressed mixing heights on Wednesday that will limit burning near SSRAs.  Dry weather will come with early morning fog or frost as well as strong inversions.  Light winds will be from SE-S.  Temperatures will be above average except in valley areas with extensive fog.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Showers build on Thursday from south to north.  Flow aloft will come from SW as upper-level ridging shifts east.  Mixing heights will gradually improve on the coast and stay fair to poor inland.  Light winds will come from E-SE at the surface and SE-S for transport winds.

 

On and off showers are expected on Friday with heavier totals in southern zones.  Flow aloft will increase from S with an upper-level trough offshore.  Surface winds will come from E-SE.  Strong transport winds will be from SSE.  Temperatures will climb above average and mixing heights will be mostly good.

 

Saturday will have on and off rain with an upper-level trough on the coast.  Strong winds will be from SSE at the surface and SSE-SSW for transport winds.  Snow levels will decrease to 4-5000 feet.  Temperatures will be seasonable and mixing heights will rise high.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

All Zones:

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E-SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, December 31, 2025.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 612

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, and 616

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611 and 617

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.***

 

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTES:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and they will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half

    mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if

    burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.