SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
November 6, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process
Update:
Written forecasts
will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with
updates as needed. Forecasts will
include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).
With the pace and
scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to
maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to
the public.
Please call your
local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific
burns. If you are not sure who to
contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for
use primarily by ODF districts.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
The weather will stay dry until late
on Saturday. Strong SW flow aloft will
move in showers overnight. Temperatures
will rise well above seasonable and mixing heights will be fair at best. Surface winds will be light from S. Transport winds will come from S-SSW.
Showers linger into Sunday, ending
from south to north in the afternoon. Total
rainfall could reach 0.25”. Flow aloft
will come from SW. Temperatures will
drop to near average and winds will be mostly
onshore. Mixing heights will be high.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Monday will be dry
with SW flow aloft and a weak trough moving through. Warming air aloft will drop mixing heights to
fair to good. Winds will come from S-SW,
light at the surface. Temperatures will be
near or above seasonable.
A few showers are likely
north on Tuesday with broad upper-level ridging. Surface winds will be light and
variable. Transport winds will come from
SE-SW. Temperatures will climb above average
and mixing heights will be fair to good.
Rain returns toward the end of next week.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
SSW at 19 - 33 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611, 639
and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind
increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to
3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind
light and variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 8
- 12 mph. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, November 7 through 9, 2026.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606. Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.***
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616,
618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 620
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616 west
of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/
909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.