SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 19, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins
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ODF Weather has transitioned back to operating Monday through Friday, and will not be open this weekend. The final Smoke Management Instruction for the fall prescribed burning season will be issued on Monday afternoon, and will be valid for Tuesday the 23rd and Wednesday the 24th.

For smoke management guidance and burning clearance, call the forecaster Mondays through Fridays 7:30am-5:00pm. The smoke management instruction will resume when burning operations increase in Spring 2015 or sooner as required.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will remain unstable as an upper level trough slowly passes over northern Oregon Friday night and early Saturday morning. A surface frontal boundary will have stalled out early Saturday morning over the region, and will be re-energized as a mid-level trough follows it. This will mark the beginning of pronounced rainfall associated with an atmospheric river from the Pacific Ocean. Onshore flow will be enhanced over southern zones ahead of this feature, while offshore flow develops across northern zones near the Columbia River. Mixing conditions will be fairly good in the vicinity of the stationary boundary and its associated rainfall.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The atmospheric river will remain active with an unstable atmosphere over northern zones. An upper level ridge will begin to build offshore Sunday, shifting the boundary north and bringing onshore flow to all of western Oregon. Rainfall will taper off slowly from the south to the north, but higher elevations in northern zones can expect heavier precipitation as the remaining moisture moves northward. Mixing conditions will remain fair near the boundary, but southern zones will see mixing heights begin to fall Sunday evening. The upper level ridge will strengthen and move onshore overnight, forming a surface ridge over southern Oregon. Winds will be light & variable Monday morning, influenced primarily by terrain. Mixing will start out poor, with only limited improvement by Monday afternoon. The atmosphere will continue to stabilize as the upper ridge becomes nearly stationary over the Cascades. Mixing conditions will deteriorate rapidly Monday evening as offshore flow develops. The atmosphere will remain stable as the surface ridge strengthens and offshore flow increases along the Oregon coast Tuesday morning. In eastern zones, winds will remain light & variable. Mixing conditions will start out poor and remain marginal throughout Tuesday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 35 - 55 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 35 - 55 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 15 - 25 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW at 30 - 50 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 35 - 55 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to W at 15 - 25 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 35 - 55 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 13 - 25 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 30 - 50 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind WSW to W at 23 - 41 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 19 - 33 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1200 to 2200 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 23 - 41 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 20 and 21, 2014.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

For Day 2 instruction:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.