SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 11, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level ridge will be centered just east of Oregon Tuesday with SW flow over the state.  Sunny skies push temperatures 15-20oF above seasonal but very dry.  Mixing conditions in the afternoon will be excellent with S-SSW winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A cold front arrives Wednesday morning followed by a strong upper trough.  There is a chance of showers during the day under partly cloudy skies but potential rainfall is less than .10”.  Burning opportunities look excellent with SW winds becoming W-WNW in afternoon.   

 

Thursday will be cooler though slightly warmer than seasonal under sunny skies.  Mixing conditions improve through the day with a very light NW transport wind.

 

Sunny skies continue Friday under W flow aloft.  Mixing again looks excellent with W-WNW winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SSW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 21 - 37 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4100 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 - 3100 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 12, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the S through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.