SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
March 2, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Tuesday will be mostly
dry with SW flow aloft as upper-level ridging shifts east. Winds will come from S-SW and temperatures
will climb well-above average. Mixing heights
will be good despite some warmer air aloft.
Freezing levels will be over 6000 feet.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper-level
trough will move inland on Wednesday with an increase in rain and mountain
snow. Winds will come from W-WNW. Temperatures will be near seasonable. Snow levels will drop to 4-5000 feet. Mixing heights will rise high.
A few light rain and
snow showers are likely for Thursday.
Flow aloft will turn from NW with upper-level ridging replacing the trough. Winds will come from NW-NNW, brisk at the
surface. Temperatures will be below
average with snow levels staying from 4-5000 feet. Mixing heights will remain good.
Showers are expected
Friday with NNW flow aloft. Snow levels
will rise to near 5000 feet and mixing heights will be fair to good. Winds will be from NNW-N with seasonable
temperatures.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8
mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during
the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 6 -
10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8
mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to
N at 6 - 10 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 - 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, March 3,
2026.
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Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SE through WNW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.