SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, June 2, 2015       2:40 PM      Nick Yonker

 

***Due to impending fire season and the lack of prescribed burning in the region, this will be the last forecast and instruction for the spring burn season. If you plan to burn while we’re not issuing written forecasts, please call us at 503-945-7401 to coordinate.***

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Upper level trough will weaken but remain over the state through Wednesday. Afternoon heating will likely produce cloud buildups again and continue the chance of a few showers or thundershowers. Expect the air mass to remain unstable for another day. Onshore wind flow will lighten and gradually turn northerly during the afternoon and evening.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper low will drift to the south Thursday and remain over California through the weekend while an upper level ridge noses in to the north. This combination of the ridge to the north and trough to the south will form a blocking pattern for several days. Expect warming temperatures from the ridge into the weekend with daytime temperatures reaching the 80s. With the low to the south, thunderstorms are likely to creep northward and move into the region during the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend. Low level air mass will be stable during the morning hours but destabilize quickly during the late morning to afternoon. Wind flow will be mainly northerly.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 4300 - 5000 ft by late morning, and then rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning, and then rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early, rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning, and then rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, June 3, 2015.

==================================================================

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml