SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 15, 2017       2:40 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Weak cold front will move through the region this afternoon followed by a cool trough tonight. Air mass will destabilize somewhat overnight through Saturday afternoon. Then the upper level ridge reestablishes itself and quickly stabilizes the air mass Saturday night. Tomorrow will present a brief period for some additional burning, provided there’s not too much smoldering.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level ridge builds in further on Sunday and Monday bringing back stable conditions. The ridge shifts to the east Tuesday afternoon as the next cold front approaches. Air mass will remain stable however. Burn opportunities will be limited to more remote locations.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 12 - 24 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Surface wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 16 and 17, 2017.

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For Saturday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.