SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, September 21, 2018       2:40 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere begins unstable, as an upper-level disturbance passes near northern Oregon. Onshore flow will peak early, before lightening up later Saturday afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will rapidly stabilize, as an upper-level ridge returns to the Oregon coast Sunday and shifts into the Klamath Basin Monday, where it will become trapped. A surface ridge will begin to restrict mixing, in spite of clear skies and light winds allowing the atmosphere to heat rapidly. Temperatures will climb well above seasonal averages early next week. Offshore flow begins to develop by Tuesday, and will cause air quality to degrade as pollution is trapped east of the Cascades.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to W at 20 - 34 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, September 22 and 23, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the NNW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the NNW through E in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.