SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
November 12, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process
Update:
Written forecasts
will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with
updates as needed. Forecasts will
include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).
With the pace and
scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to
maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to
the public.
Please call your
local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific
burns. If you are not sure who to
contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for
use primarily by ODF districts.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Dry and stable conditions
will turn wet as rain moves from west to east through the day Friday. Rainfall amounts could reach 0.25” and locally
higher. An upper-level trough will move
inland. Winds will be from S and strong
for transport winds. Temperatures will be
near average while freezing levels drop to near 5000 feet. Mixing heights will be good.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Saturday will have
brief upper-level ridging and a few showers but drier conditions. Below seasonable temperatures will come with
excellent mixing heights. Winds will be
from SSW with strong transport winds.
More showers are
likely Sunday as a new upper trough arrives offshore with SW flow aloft. Winds will be from S with brisk transport
winds. Temperatures will be below seasonable
and mixing heights will remain good.
Showers will end
from west to east on Monday as the upper trough moves inland. Winds will turn, coming from W for transport
winds and variable for surface winds.
Snow levels will drop to near 4000 feet.
Mixing heights will be good.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3900 - 4900
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 30 - 50 mph during the morning.
Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 25 - 45 mph during the
afternoon and decreases to S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning.
Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon
and decreases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at
10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8
mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 19 - 33 mph. Surface wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Friday, November
13, 2026.
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Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/
909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb558
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.