SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 17, 2016       2:40 PM      Gary Votaw

 

***THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED FORECAST FOR THE FALL BURNING SEASON***

 

***FOR ANY BURNING PLEASE CALL THE FORECAST LINE (503-945-7401). FORECAST INSTRUCTIONS WILL PICK UP NEXT SPRING, OR SOONER IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WINTER TIME BURNING. OFFICE HOURS WILL BE 700 AM TO 500 PM ON MONDAY-FRIDAY***

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

A ridge will hold on to keep the region dry on both Sunday and Monday while mixing will continue rather poor. Transport winds will continue light but begin to increase on Monday.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The next storm system will be approaching the Oregon coast on Monday. Mixing will remain poor on Monday as warmer air arrives aloft, and S winds become SW in the afternoon. Clouds will increase Monday night then there is a chance of rain or snow for Tuesday. Mixing will improve somewhat as the storm passes by. SW winds on Tuesday will become W by afternoon. Dry conditions will return on Wednesday before another storm on Thursday provides another chance of rain and snow. A ridge will again dominate by Friday and Saturday with dry conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1000 - 1800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain through the day.  Surface wind increases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 18 and 19, 2016.

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For Sunday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the ENE through S of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the ENE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. 

 

For Monday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the S through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the S through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.