SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 2, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Resumption of
Written Prescribed-Burning Forecasts/Instructions
The ODF Smoke Management Forecast
Office has resumed prescribed-burning forecasts/instructions for the 2026-27
season!
There will be significant changes this
season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued in
the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions
for multiple days.
Please continue to call the ODF
forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance
through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to
your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A building ridge
causes sunny and very warm conditions through this weekend. Temperatures reach 15-20oF above
seasonal levels by Sunday as the ridge peaks.
Mixing heights will be slow to rise early but reaching good levels in
the afternoons with SE-SW transport winds on Saturday and Sunday.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
A very weak trough
passes over the area on Monday, but little change will be noted except to cause
a little cooling. Temperatures for
Monday and Tuesday still reach 15oF above normal. Mixing heights will again be slow to rise but
become good in the afternoons. Look for
very light winds favoring SW-W on both afternoons.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to SSW at 6 - 12 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to SW to WNW at 6 - 10
mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during
the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind ESE
to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light
and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable. Surface wind light
and variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 3 through 5, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through WNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.