SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, March 17, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

*********************************************************************

A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

*********************************************************************

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A large and strong ridge is over the region causing W flow aloft.  Sunny skies on Wednesday will push temperatures 20-25oF above seasonal levels.  Afternoon mixing will become good mixing with light S-SW winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Little change is expected Thursday and Friday.  The ridge and generally sunny skies remain causing daytime temperatures at 20-25oF above seasonal levels.  Good mixing conditions are expected each afternoon with SW-W winds.

 

A cold front is expected to pass through on Friday night followed by an upper trough by Saturday.  Conditions will still be dry but skies partly cloudy, cooler though temperatures still above normal.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3800 - 4800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft by late morning rising to 4300 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4300 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, March 18, 2026.

==================================================================

 

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.