SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 26, 2023       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

************************* Holiday Schedule **************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed over Memorial Weekend (May 27th – 29th).  Today’s forecast includes burning instructions for Saturday, May 27th through Tuesday, May 30th (4 days).

A forecaster is available at 503-945-7401 until 5 p.m. today (Friday), to handle questions regarding weekend burning.  The office will reopen at 7 a.m. on Tuesday, May 30th.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION 

 

A weakening trough will be over Oregon on Saturday but with enough instability for showers and thunderstorms to develop.  Conditions will otherwise be partly sunny with seasonal temperatures.  Mixing will be very good by late morning through afternoon with light W-NW transport winds shifting to NNW-NNE in evening and increasing.  Winds may be stronger and variable near storms.

 

The trough on Sunday will weaken further over Oregon with the stronger part moving to northern California, and to remain there on Monday.  There is a persistent chance of a shower or thunderstorm both Sunday and Monday under otherwise partly to mostly sunny skies.  Monday will be the warmest day of the weekend, 5-10oF above average.  Mixing heights will be good late in the mornings through the afternoons.  Transport winds will be light, mostly NE-E on Sunday then become W-NW by Monday afternoon.

                                      

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The area will be under very weak flow aloft on Tuesday, in between the still weakening trough in California and a stronger one in the Gulf of Alaska.  Conditions will change little, mostly sunny and warm with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area.  Mixing heights will be slower to rise but will be good by the afternoon with light and variable transport winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.

 

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE and increases to 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, May 27 - 30, 2023.

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For Saturday:

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNE through ESE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the N through ESE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  No additional restrictions necessary.

 

For Monday:

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Tuesday:   

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.