SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 16, 2024       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

************** New Permanent Forecast Office Hours ******************

To best serve the field staff, the “year-round” ODF forecast office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).  Written forecasts will include burning instructions for the following day, and Friday’s forecasts will include burning instructions through the next working day (usually the following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from October through June.

After reviewing the written forecast, please call the ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) with any burning-related questions.  If you have a need for weekend office staffing, please contact us in advance.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

The upper-level ridge loses its grip on Friday, sinking south with an upper-level shortwave trough moving down from north and NW winds aloft.  The region will stay dry with a few high clouds early, followed by clearing.  Temperatures will decrease considerably, dropping to near seasonable.  Winds will come from NW-NNW and mixing heights will rise high.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will have some mid and high-level clouds with temperatures above average.  Flow aloft comes from W with another shortwave upper-level trough arriving late.  Mixing heights will be excellent.  Winds will come from W.

 

Skies will be partly cloudy Sunday and staying dry.  Upper-level troughing will have NW flow aloft.  Temperatures will be seasonable with winds from NW.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

Monday will have generally sunny skies and dry weather.  Flow aloft comes from N with upper-level troughing east and ridging building west.  Winds will turn light, coming from N-NNE with seasonable temperatures.  Mixing heights will rise high.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height below 300 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Friday, May 17, 2024.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.