SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, September 29, 2016       2:40 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

A strong upper-level trough currently west of Vancouver Island will gradually move southeast, to arrive at the Oregon coast late on Friday. While transport winds will continue south-southwest the surface winds will still be west or northwest at times. Skies will still be generally sunny on Friday with good mixing heights.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The upper trough will continue moving southeast through the weekend. It will be close enough to give a chance of showers beginning Friday night and continue through Sunday. Transport winds will southwest to south but transition to northeast late Sunday and then northwest by late Monday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.

 

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WSW to W at 13 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, September 30, 2016.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through SW of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.