SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, December 2, 2021       2:40 PM      Gary Votaw

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Transport winds will be light early Friday then become SW in the afternoon while mixing heights will again be moderate.  Except for areas of morning fog, conditions will be sunny and continued very warm, 15-20oF above seasonal levels.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough and cold front will quickly brush by the north side of the region on Saturday.  Conditions will still be mostly sunny and warm, with good mixing heights and SW transport winds trending to W in the afteroon.

 

Sunday will be mostly sunny and cooler.  Burning conditions will be limited with fair mixing heights and very light winds, mainly NE to SE.

 

A stronger system is expected on Monday.  Rain and snow are likely, snow level mainly around 4000 feet.  Expected moisture will be around .10 but up to .25 for higher elevations.  Mixing heights will become excellent in the afternoon with SW to W transport winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1900 - 2900 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2900 - 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 22 - 40 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Friday, December 3, 2021.

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Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning  5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.