SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, October 17, 2019 2:40 PM Pete Parsons

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong westerly jet stream, aimed directly at Oregon, will drive a series of weather systems across the state through Saturday. Rainfall should be greatest on Saturday, but showers are possible at any time. Precipitation totals over the next two days may exceed .25”. Snow levels are near 6000 feet and will slowly drop to about 5000 feet by Saturday night. Mixing will be excellent with strong onshore flow.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The jet stream will begin to migrate north of the state on Sunday, as a surface warm front brings a chance of light rain and snow, along with rising snow levels. Precipitation should be less than .10”. Warming aloft will suppress mixing with mostly SW-W winds.

On Monday, a weak cold front will push into NW Oregon with some clouds making it to southern Oregon. Rainfall is unlikely, but warmer surface temperatures should improve mixing in the afternoon. Transport winds should be mostly light W-NW.

2. DISPERSION

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning. Mixing height lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.

Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

are valid for burning done on Friday, October 18, 2019.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units within 5 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available

to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone

number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning

5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of piles in

a unit will allow a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing

instruction tonnage for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.