SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 21, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Sunny and warm weather will result on Friday under weak NW flow aloft, temperatures 10oF above seasonal averages.  Mixing conditions will be excellent with very light winds, favoring SW-W.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Flow aloft turns W on Saturday and Sunday.  Sunny skies continue the warming trend with temperatures 10-15oF above normal on both days.  Burning potential is still excellent in the afternoons with SW transport winds.

 

An upper trough is expected to arrive at the coast on Monday providing a slight chance of showers late but more likely overnight.  Conditions otherwise will be mostly sunny, cooler, winds becoming quite brisk from SW-W.   

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and throughout the afternoon.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 24 - 42 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Friday, May 22, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.