SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, June 17, 2024       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Weak NW flow aloft will be over the region Tuesday while a trough exits to the east.  Skies otherwise will be mostly sunny with cool temperatures persisting, 5-10oF below seasonal averages.  The trough will help mixing heights to be excellent as transport winds will be very light, favoring S-SW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A very weak trough will be over the region for Wednesday and Thursday.  It will help keep mixing heights excellent, but skies will remain mostly sunny.  The sun will encourage a warming trend and temperatures above seasonal by Thursday.  Mixing heights will be low in the early mornings but rising well through the later mornings and the afternoons.  Transport winds will be mainly SE-S but turning lightly W by Thursday afternoon.

 

Weak W flow aloft is expected for Friday causing sunny and warm conditions, temperatures possibly 10oF above seasonal.  Low early morning mixing heights will improve through the day with transport winds turning WSW-NW in the afternoon.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Low early mixing heights below 1000 ft rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, June 18, 2024.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.