SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 22, 2017       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge, currently over Oregon, will shift to over Idaho on Tuesday.  Warm air aloft will suppress daytime mixing, even with afternoon temperatures at 15-20 degrees above average.  Light SE-SW morning winds will increase and veer to the west Tuesday afternoon, as a surface thermal trough slides from western Oregon into central Oregon.  A dry marine push will bring cooling NW winds Tuesday night.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A dry and cool upper-level trough will bring a few clouds on Wednesday.  Brisk NW winds will inhibit vertical mixing and cool daytime temperatures back to near average.

The upper-level trough will strengthen Thursday and Friday but not quite enough to bring showers to the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy with chilly NW-N winds holding temperatures near average.  Cool air aloft will promote good daytime mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then increases to W to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and increases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, May 23, 2017.

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Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.