SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 20, 2014       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A slow-moving cold front brought brisk south winds this morning and eventually some light rain to the region this afternoon.  The front will creep eastward this evening with rain tuning to showers.  An evening thundershower is also possible.  An upper-level trough will maintain scattered shower activity through Tuesday morning, with a transitory ridge bringing drying and clearing Tuesday afternoon.  The air aloft will stay cool enough for good mixing with mostly SW transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A potent cold front is forecast to bring increasing clouds and south winds again on Wednesday.  Rain will likely spread back across the region by Wednesday night.  Strong WSW flow aloft will maintain showers through Thursday, with transport winds turning southwesterly.  Another weather system may bring more rain and wind to the region by Friday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 18 - 32 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 4500 - 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 20 - 34 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning done on Tuesday, October 21, 2014.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 12 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml