SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 17, 2022       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Breezy west winds will dominate Wednesday under partly sunny skies as a trough moves into Washington.  Mixing heights will rise through the day, with W transport winds in the morning becoming stronger by afternoon.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The trough will pass into Idaho on Thursday and leave the area cooler but dry under NW flow aloft.  Daytime temperatures will be around 10oF below seasonal.  Daytime mixing heights will be good with W to NW transport winds.

 

Cold NW flow aloft will be over the area for Friday and Saturday.  High pressure at the surface will ensure mostly sunny and near seasonal temperatures.  Mixing heights will rise through the day but winds will generally be very light, NE to E transport winds on Friday turning NW to N by Saturday afternoon.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 3300 - 4300 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to W at 18 - 30 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to WNW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to E at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, May 18, 2022.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.