SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 25, 2018       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

******************** Important Scheduling Note **********************

The ODF smoke forecast office will be closed Saturday, May 26th and Sunday, May 27th.  The office will reopen on Monday, May 28th.  This forecast includes burning instructions for both Saturday and Sunday.  If you have questions about burning for either of those days, please call the ODF Forecast Desk prior to 5 p.m. today (Friday). 

If you have questions regarding burning plans for Monday, please call the ODF Forecast Desk Monday morning for verbal instructions.  The next written forecast/instructions will be issued Monday afternoon.

ODF Forecast Desk: 503-945-7401

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough over California is circulating very moist and unstable air northward over south-central Oregon.  Expect widespread showers and thundershowers through tonight with local downpours possible. In addition, low-level onshore flow is driving cooler marine air into the region.

As the upper-level trough pushes across Nevada, the air mass will slowly dry and stabilize on Saturday, especially west.  Strong onshore flow will keep temperatures below average with good daytime mixing.

A weak ridge will bring sunshine on Sunday with temperatures warming back to above average. Brisk transport winds will turn mostly northerly with continued good daytime mixing.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

With ample sunshine, temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Monday.  The next weather system will be mostly dry but should increase the onshore flow again Monday night and Tuesday.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 26 and 27, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the NW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the NNW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the NNW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.