SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Flow aloft will come
from NW on Thursday with an upper-level trough moving east and ridging to the
west. A few showers decrease through the
day with rainfall amounts under 0.05”.
Winds will be brisk from NW with below average temperatures. Mixing heights will be excellent with freezing
levels at 4-5000 feet for the afternoon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Friday will have a few snow showers
as freezing levels rise a little to 5-6000 feet. Flow aloft will come from N. Mixing heights will lower some but stay
good. Lighter surface winds will come from
NW with transport winds also from NW.
Temperatures will be seasonable.
Mostly dry weather
is likely Saturday with N flow aloft and impacts from upper-level ridging. Winds will be light and variable, somewhat from
SW for transport winds. Temperatures will
climb above average and freezing levels will be over 6000 feet. Mixing heights will decrease to fair to good.
Sunday will be dry
with W flow aloft as upper-level ridging moves south. Temperatures will be well above average and
mixing heights will be good. Winds will
come from W. Mostly dry weather lasts into early next week.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 -
22 mph during the afternoon and evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 -
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3300 -
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 -
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Thursday, March 5,
2026.
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Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.