SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, June 17, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

 

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

 

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

 

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

 

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

 

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

 

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

 

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Weak SW aloft brings mostly sunny and very warm conditions Thursday, 10-15oF above average.  Mixing is good in the afternoon with SW winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An offshore upper-level trough approaches from the west on Friday.  It will push enough moisture across the area for some showers and a few thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.  Moisture will be .10” or less except possibly more in a thunderstorm.  Mixing will be good with mainly S winds.

 

The trough moves inland over the weekend, and flow aloft turns lightly NW.  It brings sunny skies yet somewhat cooler conditions.  Mixing will be good with NW winds on Saturday but light and variable by Sunday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2600 - 3600 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NNW to NE and decreases to 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4200 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, June 18, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.