SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, April 29, 2016       2:40 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Upper level trough and disturbance will move to the south of the state this evening with any lingering showers diminishing. On Saturday a ridge builds northward along the coast, clearing the skies and allowing temperatures to warm. Other than brief nighttime stability, air mass will be mostly unstable. Wind flow turns northerly.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level ridge continues to strengthen through Sunday before shifting to the east on Monday and Tuesday. Expect the warmest days to be Sunday and Monday. Upper level trough approaches on Monday and Tuesday bringing the possibility of showers and/or thundershowers on Tuesday. Winds will shift to easterly on Sunday then to southerly on Monday and Tuesday. Air mass will be stable during the morning with afternoon heating providing good mixing during the day.

   

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.

 

Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to N to NE at 18 - 30 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind increases to N to NNE at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming E to ESE at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NE to E at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming E to ESE at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, April 30 and May 1, 2016.

==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the N through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the N through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the ENE through ESE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the ENE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.