SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, June 24, 2017 2:40 PM Pete Parsons

 

********************** Important Scheduling Note ********************

This will be the final written forecast for the spring 2017 season.

The ODF smoke forecast office will resume Monday Friday operations, beginning 6-25-17. For additional smoke guidance or clearance, call us at 503-945-7401, between the hours of 7 a.m. and 5 p.m.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge is producing stable, sunny, and warm weather today. Warm aloft is suppressing daytime mixing. A building coastal surface thermal trough is resulting in a general NE low-level wind pattern. Inversions are likely to form quickly this evening, allowing local drainage winds to dominate overnight.

The upper-level ridge axis will move across the region on Sunday. Very warm air aloft will continue to suppress daytime mixing. Surface temperatures will climb to about 20 degrees above average with light transport winds veering to the SE-S. Developing SW flow aloft will introduce a chance of thunderstorms Sunday night with transport winds turning onshore.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge will progress east of the state Monday. Cooling aloft will improve daytime mixing. Increasing SW flow aloft will maintain a chance of thundershowers, as strengthening onshore flow pushes cooler air across the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday, a more stable WNW flow aloft should end the shower threat. Strong onshore transport winds will drop surface temperatures back to near average. Cool aloft will make for good daytime mixing, but brisk NW winds may cause smoke to fumigate.

2. DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Surface wind shifts to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and shifts to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, June 25 and 26, 2017.

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For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the ESE through WNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.

 

For Monday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available

to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone

number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.