SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 1, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge that has been bringing dry and relatively
warm weather weakens slightly and shifts eastward, to over Idaho, on Saturday. An upper-level trough approaching the coast will
increase the S-SW flow aloft, bringing a chance of afternoon thundershowers. A surface thermal trough should remain over central
Oregon but may progress slightly eastward.
Temperatures will remain above average with increasing mostly southerly winds. Daytime mixing remains good.
On Sunday, an upper-level low drops southward along the
California Coast, transporting more moisture and instability northward over
Oregon. Expect scattered afternoon
showers and thundershowers. Daytime temperatures will remain about 10°F above
average. SE winds become more variable in
the afternoon with continued good mixing.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough comes ashore over southern California
on Monday with a moist and unstable circulation around bringing scattered showers
and a chance of thundershowers to south-central Oregon. Rainfall totals from late Sunday through
Monday could locally exceed .25” near the southern border. Temperatures remain above average with good
daytime mixing. Winds will be variable
near showers but trend towards northerly.
A building upper-level ridge brings a dry and warmer N-NE
flow aloft on Tuesday. Expect mostly
sunny skies and temperatures 10-15°F above average. Daytime mixing remains good
with mostly NW-N winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind SE
to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SE to SSW at 5 - 9
mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 - 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during
the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind
NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 2 through 4, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through
SSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NE through S
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Verify transport
winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through
NNE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.