SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 15, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A cold upper-level trough passes by on Saturday to cause a chilly day and perhaps a light shower in the north portion.  Skies will be partly to mostly sunny but temperatures around 10°F below average.  Burning opportunities are excellent with mainly NW winds.

 

The trough slides eastward on Sunday for NW flow aloft over Oregon and mostly sunny skies.  Temperatures remain about 10°F below average.  Mixing conditions are still excellent with N-NNE transport winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

NW flow continues Monday and Tuesday, but a building offshore ridge will inject warmer air into the flow.  Sunny skies allow a warming trend and temperatures much closer to seasonal levels.  Mixing heights rise nicely through each day with light NE winds on Monday then NW-N for Tuesday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Mixing height lowers to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NNE at 12 - 24 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, May 16 through 18, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the WNW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the N through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the N through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.