SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 16, 2017       2:40 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough passes north of Oregon on Tuesday, creating onshore flow as the atmosphere becomes unstable. Cloud cover will increase Tuesday after sunrise, delaying the inversion break needed for good smoke ventilation. The inversion will begin to redevelop by sunset, creating a brief window for prescribed burning.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Wednesday will see the atmosphere continue to become more unstable, as a stronger upper-level trough approaches Oregon and increases the SW onshore flow. A storm system at the surface will bring increasing clouds, but this feature will bring almost no rainfall to southern Oregon. The upper-level disturbance moves into Oregon on Thursday and drives a powerful storm system ahead of it. Warm, moist air ahead of the storm will create rain showers. Thursday night, the upper-level trough will weaken and cross the Klamath Basin, turning flow aloft W-NW. Polar air from Canada will begin to surge down the Columbia River Basin, causing Snow Levels to sink Friday below 4,000 feet above sea level.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft during the morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind W to WNW at 25 - 45 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 17, 2017.

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Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 12 p.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the WSW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.