SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
December 20, 2019 2:40 PM Pete Parsons
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End of Season ****************************
This is the last written weather forecast and
set of prescribed-burning instructions for winter season. The ODF forecast office will remain open
Monday through Friday (except holidays), but beginning Monday, December 23rd, you
will need to call the forecast office at 503-945-7401, for smoke clearance or for
smoke-related questions.
We plan to resume issuing written forecasts/instructions,
when prescribed burning picks up in the spring but may resume them sooner, if
there is enough demand.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A very moist frontal zone has stalled across Washington and
NW Oregon. South of the front, skies are
cloudy, with brisk southerly winds pushing snow levels to near 7000 feet.
A potent and slow-moving cold front will swing onshore
Saturday. South-central Oregon will
remain in the warm sector of the storm, with increasing clouds, brisk S-SW
winds, and excellent daytime mixing.
Snow levels will generally stay above 5000 feet.
The cold front will bring areas of light rain and snow
Saturday night and Sunday, as
the cold front finally moves across the region and drops snow levels back to near
the basin floor. South winds will turn
westerly Sunday afternoon with fair-to-good daytime mixing.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A cool upper-level
trough may produce a few showers on Monday, before weakening on Tuesday. Cool air aloft will provide good daytime
mixing with light winds on Monday. Skies
should turn partly sunny on Tuesday with light SE-SW winds and fair-to-good
daytime mixing.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day. Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind S
to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 23 -
41 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 15 - 29 mph during
the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to S to SW at 9 - 15
mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSE
to S at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S
at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 -
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday and Sunday, December 21 and 22,
2019.
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For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through SW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the
SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through W
of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport
winds. No additional restrictions
necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is
available
to discuss specific
burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503)
945-7401. Please call this number and
not individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. Please
avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile
if burning
5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of piles in
a unit will allow
a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing
instruction
tonnage for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.