SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
May 16, 2024
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
**************
New Permanent Forecast Office
Hours ******************
To best serve the field staff,
the “year-round” ODF forecast office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. – 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
Written forecasts will include burning instructions for the following
day, and Friday’s forecasts will include burning instructions through the next
working day (usually the following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from
October through June.
After reviewing the written
forecast, please call the ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) with any
burning-related questions. If you have a
need for weekend office staffing, please contact us in advance.
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge loses its grip
on Friday, sinking south with an upper-level shortwave trough moving down from
north and NW winds aloft. The region
will stay dry with a few high clouds early, followed by clearing. Temperatures will decrease considerably,
dropping to near seasonable. Winds will
come from NW-NNW and mixing heights will rise high.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Saturday will have some mid and high-level
clouds with temperatures above average.
Flow aloft comes from W with another shortwave upper-level trough
arriving late. Mixing heights will be
excellent. Winds will come from W.
Skies will be partly cloudy Sunday and
staying dry. Upper-level troughing will
have NW flow aloft. Temperatures will be
seasonable with winds from NW. Mixing heights
will be good.
Monday will have generally sunny skies
and dry weather. Flow aloft comes from N
with upper-level troughing east and ridging building west. Winds will turn light, coming from N-NNE with
seasonable temperatures. Mixing heights
will rise high.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind NW
to N at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
N to NE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during
the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Friday, May 17,
2024.
==================================================================
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W
through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.