SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, March 1, 2024       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A cold airmass for March will impact the region on Saturday.  Upper-level troughing will have light WSW flow aloft.  Snow showers continue with snow levels under 2000 feet and high mixing heights.  Breezy winds will come from SSW-WSW.  Temperatures will be below seasonable.

 

Snow showers continue on Sunday with upper-level troughing and light WSW winds aloft.  Temperatures will be unseasonably cold and snow levels will be under 2000 feet.  Mixing heights will be excellent.  Surface winds will be from SSW and transport winds will come from SW-WSW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The upper-level trough finally pushes east on Monday with light WNW flow aloft.  A few snow shows will linger with snow levels remaining under 2000 feet and below average temperatures.  Winds will come from WSW.  Mixing heights will be high.

 

On Tuesday, the upper-level trough will be east with ridging west and a shortwave trough impacting the region with a few snow showers.    Winds will be light and variable with somewhat NW transport winds.  Snow levels will be near 3000 feet and mixing heights will be fair to good.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, March 2 through 4, 2024.

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For Saturday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the WSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.