SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 26, 2023
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
************************* Holiday Schedule **************************
The ODF forecast office will be closed
over Memorial Weekend (May 27th – 29th).
Today’s forecast includes burning instructions for Saturday, May 27th
through Tuesday, May 30th (4 days).
A forecaster is available at
503-945-7401 until 5 p.m. today (Friday), to handle questions regarding weekend
burning. The office will reopen at 7 a.m.
on Tuesday, May 30th.
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A weakening trough will be over Oregon
on Saturday but with enough instability for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Conditions will otherwise be
partly sunny with seasonal temperatures.
Mixing will be very good by late morning through afternoon with light W-NW
transport winds shifting to NNW-NNE in evening and increasing. Winds may be stronger and variable near
storms.
The trough on Sunday will weaken further
over Oregon with the stronger part moving to northern California, and to remain
there on Monday. There is a persistent chance
of a shower or thunderstorm both Sunday and Monday under otherwise partly to mostly
sunny skies. Monday will be the warmest
day of the weekend, 5-10oF above average. Mixing heights will be good late in the mornings
through the afternoons. Transport winds
will be light, mostly NE-E on Sunday then become W-NW by Monday afternoon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The area will be under very weak flow aloft on Tuesday, in between the
still weakening trough in California and a stronger one in the Gulf of
Alaska. Conditions will change little,
mostly sunny and warm with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the area. Mixing heights will be slower to rise but
will be good by the afternoon with light and variable transport winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind W
to NW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to
NNW to NNE and increases to 10 - 18 mph during the evening.
Surface wind W to
NW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to
NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind NNE to E at
6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday, Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday, May 27 - 30, 2023.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Verify transport
winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNE through
ESE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles
to the N through ESE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W
through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Tuesday:
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.