SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, April 16, 2014       2:30 PM      Doug Wesley

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Mostly sunny skies continue today and winds have turned to mostly S-SW.  Most areas are seeing good daytime mixing levels.  Some less-exposed regions remain in local, diurnal surface glows this afternoon.

A cold front is expected to move into the region on Thursday afternoon, with showers developing as the afternoon proceeds, more widespread over the north.  Mixing should be moderate to good with mostly W-SW transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A drying trend is expected for Friday as flat upper ridging begins again.  Transport winds are forecast to weaken, mostly from the S, but with healthy daytime mixing depths.

The ridge will likely slide east of the state Saturday with increasing WSW flow aloft and increasing clouds late in the day.  Mixing should be good with increasing SW-W transport winds. 

At this point it appears that the main upper trough will remain well offshore on Sunday with continuing W-SW flow aloft, and good afternoon mixing.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NW and decreases to 10 - 20 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts and decreases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Thursday, April 17, 2014.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSE through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml