SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 5, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Dry conditions continue Wednesday.  Flow aloft will come from N then NW as upper-level ridging moves inland.  Surface winds will be from WNW.  Stronger transport winds will come from WNW as well.  Temperatures will climb well above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be excellent.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The weather doesn’t change much going into Thursday.  Flow aloft will be from NW with broad upper-level ridging.  Temperatures will be well above average and mixing heights will be high.  Winds will be from W-WNW.

 

A weak upper-level trough will move through on Friday but most of the region will still have dry weather.  Winds will be strong from W-NW.  Warm temperatures for the season will come with high mixing heights.

 

Saturday will have light NW flow aloft will more upper-level ridging.  Winds will be light and variable.  Mixing heights will be good.  Dry weather lasts through the weekend.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, May 6, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.