SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, June 10, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

 

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

 

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

 

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

 

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

 

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

 

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

 

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

NW flow aloft weakens on Thursday as a ridge begins to build offshore.  Sunny and warm temperatures are expected, about 5oF above seasonal.  Afternoon mixing will be good with light and variable winds but favoring NW-N by afternoon and evening.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The offshore ridge is fully in control by Friday.  Sunny and warm conditions continue.  Burning conditions will be good in the afternoon with very light NW-N winds.

 

Little change is expected for the weekend.  The ridge building nears its peak by Sunday while flow aloft on Saturday and Sunday turn N.  Sunny and temperatures 5-10oF above normal continue.  Mixing heights on both Saturday and Sunday will be high with very light winds, mainly favoring NE.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2900 - 3900 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, June 11, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through ENE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the WNW through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.