SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 23, 2017       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

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The final Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Spring/Summer 2017 will be issued on Saturday, June 24th 2017. Additional support will be available by telephone from the on-duty meteorologist at (503) 945-7401 Mon-Fri, 7am to 5pm.
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A building upper-level ridge will keep skies clear through Saturday, under a stable NW flow aloft.  Warming aloft will suppress daytime mixing.  Surface temperatures will climb to about 15 degrees above average with light E-NE transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge will move across the region on Sunday.  Warm air aloft will continue to suppress daytime mixing.  Surface temperatures will climb to about 20 degrees above average, with transport winds increasing and veering to the SE-S. Developing SW flow aloft may trigger a late-day thunderstorm. 

The upper-level ridge will progress east of the state by Monday with SW flow aloft increasing the chance of showers and thundershowers.  As the surface thermal trough progresses into Idaho, increasing onshore transport winds will usher cooler marine air across the region.

On Tuesday, a more stable westerly flow aloft should end the shower threat.  Strong onshore transport winds will drop surface temperatures back to near average.  Cooling aloft will improve mixing, but brisk low-level winds may cause smoke to fumigate.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, June 24, 2017.

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Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.