SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, November 25, 2014       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge is slowly building over Oregon; forcing an active warm front into southern Washington.  Partial clearing and mild S-W winds are resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures.  Snow levels are above 10,000 feet.

The upper-level ridge will hold through Wednesday, bringing more sunshine and very mild temperatures.  Very warm air aloft will tend to suppress daytime mixing, but southerly winds will aid ventilation.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The ridge is forecast to flatten and slide east of the region by Thanksgiving Day.  Increasing westerly flow aloft will direct a cold front onshore, with increasing clouds and a chance of light rain returning. Increasing SE-SW transport winds and cooling aloft will improve mixing.  Snow levels should remain above 8000 feet.

Strong westerly flow aloft will continue to feed considerable moisture across the region Friday and Saturday for continued cloudy skies and light rain at times.  In addition, Arctic air may push southward across Washington on Friday and into northern Oregon on Saturday.  By late Saturday, Arctic air may push as far south as south-central Oregon, dropping snow levels to near the basin floor.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

Instruction is valid for burning done on Wednesday, November 26, 2014.

==================================================================

 

Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml