SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
February 27, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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A substantial degrade in the forecast
products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer
wait-times to return calls to the forecast line. Forecasts and
instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Clouds increase tonight
in response to an upper-level trough approaching the SW corner of Oregon, and
temperatures will be near seasonal levels.
Showers increase with up to .10” of moisture during the day and a snow
level rising over 8000 feet. Burning potential
becomes generally good in the afternoon with light and variable winds.
Showers continue
Saturday night and Sunday, and possibly even a thunderstorm. Potential moisture is .10” to .25”. Mixing becomes good again in the afternoon
with light winds, favoring S.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
The
trough continues east on Monday, and a ridge dominates again through Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny on both Monday and Tuesday
with temperatures slightly warmer than seasonal levels. Mixing conditions will be moderate during the
afternoons. NW-NNE transport winds on Monday
will turn S-SW by Tuesday afternoon.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000
ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.
Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local
terrain during the afternoon and evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1100 - 2100 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
1100 - 2100 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNE at 5
- 9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 12 - 22
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during
the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, February 28 through March 2, 2026.
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For Saturday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE
through WSW of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles to the ESE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete
ignitions by 4 p.m. No additional restrictions
necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE
through WNW of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles in all directions of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. No additional restrictions
necessary.
For Monday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW
through NNE of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles in all directions of SSRAs. Verify
transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. No additional restrictions
necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.