SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, March 4, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Flow aloft will come from NW on Thursday with an upper-level trough moving east and ridging to the west.  A few showers decrease through the day with rainfall amounts under 0.05”.  Winds will be brisk from NW with below average temperatures.  Mixing heights will be excellent with freezing levels at 4-5000 feet for the afternoon.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Friday will have a few snow showers as freezing levels rise a little to 5-6000 feet.  Flow aloft will come from N.  Mixing heights will lower some but stay good.  Lighter surface winds will come from NW with transport winds also from NW.  Temperatures will be seasonable.

 

Mostly dry weather is likely Saturday with N flow aloft and impacts from upper-level ridging.  Winds will be light and variable, somewhat from SW for transport winds.  Temperatures will climb above average and freezing levels will be over 6000 feet.  Mixing heights will decrease to fair to good.

 

Sunday will be dry with W flow aloft as upper-level ridging moves south.  Temperatures will be well above average and mixing heights will be good.  Winds will come from W.  Mostly dry weather lasts into early next week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3300 - 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 - 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, March 5, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.