SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 6, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

The weather is mostly static into Thursday.  Flow aloft will be from NW with an upper-level ridge moving inland.  Winds will come from W-NW.  Temperatures will rise well above average and mixing heights will be excellent.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A weak upper-level trough moves through on Friday but with continued dry conditions.  Winds will come from W-WNW with brisk transport winds.  Temperatures will be warmer than seasonable and mixing heights will be high.

 

Upper-level ridging returns Saturday with light W flow aloft.  Warmer air aloft will move in aloft but mixing heights will stay good.  Lights winds will be variable at the surface and from SSE-SSW for transport winds.

 

Sunday will have SW flow aloft as upper-level ridging moves east.  Mixing heights will be high with temperatures on the rise.  Winds will be from S-SSW.  Dry weather lasts into early next week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, May 7, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.