SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, March 18, 2024       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Skies should remain mostly clear through the night with light winds.  A strong upper-level ridge shifts over eastern Oregon Tuesday, bringing an apex to this early-season warm spell.  Mostly sunny skies will help morning inversions yield to few hours of good afternoon mixing, as temperatures climb to near 70°F.  Light S-SW winds in the morning will increase and turn SW-W in the afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Conditions revert to more seasonal during the extended period.  Strengthening SW flow aloft forces the surface thermal trough in Idaho on Wednesday.  Gusty SW winds will drop temperatures to within 10 degrees of average with increasing clouds.  Isolated light showers can’t be ruled out.  Cooling aloft will improve daytime mixing.

A weak and transitory ridge will briefly suspend the cooling trend on Thursday with high temperatures staying about 5-10°F above average under partly cloudy skies.  The air aloft will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing with weaker SW winds.

The next in a series of weather systems will increase clouds and S-SW winds on Friday, as temperatures cool to near average.  Daytime mixing should remain good.  Expect showery and cooler weather from Friday night through the weekend with snow levels dropping to 4-5000 feet.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, March 19, 2024.

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Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 5 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.