SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, November 16, 2018       2:40 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Upper level ridge will rebound following the minor disturbance that is moving through the NE part of the state today. Expect continued poor mixing and light transport winds, leading to poor air quality conditions for burning.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level ridge builds over the region through Sunday and Monday then shifts eastward on Tuesday. Expect continued poor mixing with light winds. Wind flow starts increasing from the south on Tuesday. Burn opportunities will remain fairly limited.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1700 - 2700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain through the day.  Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, November 17 and 18, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NE through ESE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the NE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.