SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, May 23, 2013 2:40 PM Pete Parsons

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

An unseasonably cold upper-level trough will remain centered over Washington and northern Oregon tonight and slowly lift to the NE on Friday. Considerable moisture will continue to wrap around this system and swing over Oregon, but the bulk of the shower activity will stay north and west of the region. Temperatures will moderate very little; remaining 10-15 degrees below average. The snow level will drop to around 5000 feet tonight; recovering only to near 7000 feet Friday afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The main upper-level trough will weaken and move into SE British Columbia on Saturday. However, another spoke of upper-level energy is forecast to wrap around it; maintaining the cool and moist onshore flow across Oregon. Skies should be partly cloudy early, with increasing clouds and possible showers and/or thundershowers developing Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate but remain 5-10 degrees below average.

A weak upper-level disturbance, in the moist westerly flow aloft, will bring continued onshore flow, mostly cloudy skies, and a few showers on Sunday, with little change in temperatures. After a brief break Monday morning, another weather system is forecast to bring some showers, and possibly thunderstorms, Monday afternoon and night. Temperatures will remain well below normal.

2. DISPERSION

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning. Mixing height lowers to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 24, 2013.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through WNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

945-7401. The smoke management forecaster is available

to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone

number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

This forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml