SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, June 25, 2025       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Stable west flow aloft continues Thursday for a mostly sunny day and seasonal temperatures.  Afternoon mixing remains excellent with SW-W winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Little change will be noted on Friday and Saturday, still mostly sunny and seasonal.  Afternoon mixing will be excellent with very light W-NW winds.

 

An upper ridge building over the area by Sunday will initiate a significant warming trend.  Sunny skies on Sunday and Monday will push temperatures 10-15oF above normal.  Mixing will be excellent during the afternoon with light and variable winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft in the late morning and afternoon.

 

Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4200 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, June 26, 2025.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.