SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Sunday, May 19, 2019       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough, centered over northern California, will continue to circulate showers over Oregon tonight, as it slowly slides into Nevada.

On Monday, any break in the shower activity will be short-lived, as another weather system comes ashore in the afternoon.  Once again, this system will take aim at California but will circulate plenty of moisture northward into south-central Oregon.  Snow levels will hold at 5-6000 feet with good mixing and SW winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Showers will continue through Tuesday, with a strong upper-level trough parked over California and Nevada.  Mixing will be good with winds veering to the NW and increasing in the afternoon.

Showers will decrease on Wednesday, as the upper-level trough moves slightly eastward, into the southern Rockies.  Cool air aloft will maintain good mixing with brisk winds turning more northerly.

A cool northerly flow aloft will leave the door open for upper-level impulses to drop into the region, from SW Canada, Thursday and Friday.  Expect considerable clouds and a chance of showers, mainly in the afternoons and evenings.  Temperatures will remain below average with good mixing and mostly NW-N transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

 

MONDAY

 

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW and increases to 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then increases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NNE at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming N to NNE at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 - 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NNE at 12 - 24 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 20, 2019.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through WNW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.