SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
May 13, 2024
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
Following an early shortwave upper-level
trough passage on Monday, Tuesday will have NNW flow aloft as upper-level
ridging builds offshore. A few high
clouds are likely during the day with dry weather and well-above average temperatures. Mixing heights will be good. Light winds will come from NNW-N.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Wednesday will be dry with a few
high clouds under the influence of the offshore upper-level ridge. Light flow aloft will come from NNW. Temperatures will rise well-above average
again and mixing heights will be good after morning inversions. Winds will come from NNW-N, light at the
surface.
Dry weather continues on Thursday
with clear skies and stable conditions.
Flow aloft comes from NW with the upper-level ridge beginning to
flatten. Winds will come from WSW-W. Unseasonably warm temperatures will have excellent
mixing heights.
Friday will have clear and dry
weather. A shortwave upper-level trough
moves down from north as the flattening upper-level ridge moves south. Stronger winds will be from WNW-NW. Temperatures stay well-above average. Mixing heights will be good.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to
NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
N to NE at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SW to W at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind
W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 14,
2024.
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Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the NW through NNE of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
25 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.