SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 3, 2016       2:40 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

Areas of rain and snow are expected as a weakening cold front passes through the area, with SW transport winds shifting to NW after the front passes. Snow levels will be 5000 to 6000 feet but will fall to surface level everywhere during the evening.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An upper trough moving onshore on Monday will give more chances of light snow to the region on Monday and Tuesday, with winds ranging from SW to NW. The next significant storm with possible wind and snow is expected to arrive on Thursday, continuing on Friday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon and evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WSW at 22 - 40 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to W to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 4 and 5, 2016.

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For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the S through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.