SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Information Regarding
Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast office
will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends
and state holidays).
There will be significant changes this
season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued in
the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions
for multiple days.
The forecast phone recording at
503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to call the ODF
forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance
through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to
your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level
ridge on Thursday will give the region one more sunny and very warm day, about 20oF
above seasonal. Mixing heights again
will be slow to rise but become good in the afternoon with very light SW-W
winds shifting NW in evening.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
An upper trough
reaches the coast on Friday while a cold front passes across the area, causing
cooler conditions under still mostly sunny skies. The front brings well mixed air for the
afternoon and SW-W winds.
The weekend turns
much cooler with mostly sunny skies. The
upper trough is still on the coast Saturday then it weakens and moves inland by
Sunday. Look for daytime temperatures to
be 10-15oF below normal. Mixing
will be good for both afternoons with NW-N winds on Saturday then NE for Sunday.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the
afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 32 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
1900 - 2900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 5 -
9 mph. Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8
mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
2400 - 3400 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NNE to ENE at
9 - 15 mph. Surface wind NNE to ENE at 8
- 12 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, October 8 and 9, 2026.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
SW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.