SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, November 7, 2025       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A strong upper-level ridge will be over the area on both Saturday and Sunday.  Sunny skies will warm the area above seasonal levels on Saturday then even warmer by Sunday, reaching 10-15oF above average.  Even warmer air aloft significantly suppresses mixing into the afternoons.  Transport winds on both days will be ESE-SE and light.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The ridge weakens somewhat by Monday as a trough tries to pass through it, and flow aloft becomes west.  Skies will be partly sunny while remaining unseasonably warm.  Mixing will be poor with very light S-SW winds.

 

The ridge rebounds on Tuesday for sunny and very warm conditions continuing.  But it will maintain poor mixing with very light S-SW wind.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning then becomes ESE to SE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft during the morning rising to 1600 - 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, November 8 through 10, 2025.

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For Saturday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.   Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through S of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the E through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.   No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.   Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through S of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the E through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.   No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.   Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m.   No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.