SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
March 18, 2024
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
Skies should remain mostly clear through the night with
light winds. A strong upper-level ridge shifts
over eastern Oregon Tuesday, bringing an apex to this early-season warm
spell. Mostly sunny skies will help morning
inversions yield to few hours of good afternoon mixing, as temperatures climb to
near 70°F. Light S-SW winds in the
morning will increase and turn SW-W in the afternoon and evening.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Conditions revert to more seasonal during the extended
period. Strengthening SW flow aloft
forces the surface thermal trough in Idaho on Wednesday. Gusty SW winds will drop temperatures to within
10 degrees of average with increasing clouds.
Isolated light showers can’t be ruled out. Cooling aloft will improve daytime mixing.
A weak and transitory ridge will briefly suspend the cooling
trend on Thursday with high temperatures staying about 5-10°F above average
under partly cloudy skies. The air aloft
will remain cool enough for good daytime mixing with weaker SW winds.
The next in a series of weather systems will increase clouds
and S-SW winds on Friday, as temperatures cool to near average. Daytime mixing should remain good. Expect showery and cooler weather from Friday
night through the weekend with snow levels dropping to 4-5000 feet.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during
the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
S to SW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
S to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, March 19,
2024.
==================================================================
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SSE through WNW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SSE through WNW in or near drainages
leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds
away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 5
p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.