SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday, May 1, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Friday will be the
warmest day of the week, 10-15oF above average under mostly sunny
skies. The upper ridge moves east as S
flow increases and destabilizes the air.
Expect excellent afternoon mixing with increasing S-SW transport winds. Clouds increase late and there is a chance of
showers or thundershowers by late afternoon and evening, with a cold front arriving in evening.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
After the
cold front passes by on Friday night Saturday will be much colder, temperatures
5-10oF below normal. South
flow aloft stills bring moist and unstable air for widespread showers,
typically .10” to .25” of moisture and snow levels lowering to 6500-7500 feet. Afternoon mixing conditions will be very good
with mostly NNW-NNE winds.
The upper
trough moves eastward by Sunday with drier air arriving. But there is a chance of a few light showers
in the east during morning with the snow level at 5-6000 feet. Skies otherwise will become sunny while
remaining cool. Mixing will be very good
with NNE-NE transport winds.
Monday will be sunny and warm as N flow aloft
will be ahead of the next upper ridge due to arrive Tuesday. Mixing again becomes very good in the
afternoon with N-NE winds, weakening a little through the day.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Low early mixing
height below 1000 ft rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Mixing height lowers to 3700
- 4700 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon
then shifts to SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Surface wind increases to S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and
evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
N to NE at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind NW to
NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1700 - 2700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NNE to NE at
14 - 28 mph. Surface wind NNW to NNE at
10 - 16 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 24
- 42 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 18 -
30 mph during the afternoon. Surface
wind NNE to NE at 10 - 22 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Friday, May 2,
2025.
==================================================================
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for
burning units to the SSE through W of SSRAs.
For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid
burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.