SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
May 14, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A weak upper-level trough may bring some clouds tonight,
mainly north, with NW winds slowly relaxing.
In its wake, a dry and stable westerly flow aloft provides mostly sunny
skies on Friday with excellent daytime mixing, near-average temperatures, and NW
transport winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A stronger upper-level trough pushes the jet stream
southward, over Oregon, on Saturday. Clouds and NW winds increase, with a risk
of light showers north. Temperatures cool
to about 10°F below average with excellent daytime mixing.
Sunday, the upper-level trough slides eastward, to over
Idaho, with a cool NW flow aloft over Oregon.
Expect mostly sunny skies but slightly below average temperatures. Daytime mixing should be excellent with
continued NW winds.
A NW jet stream stays over the region Monday, as an
upper-level ridge slowly builds. Expect
dry weather, but a weak warm front should maintain some clouds. Daytime mixing remains good. Temperatures will recover to near average
with continued NW winds.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the
afternoon and increases to NW to NNW at 18 - 32 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Surface wind increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon
and evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at
12 - 24 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at
8 - 12 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 - 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at
9 - 15 mph. Surface wind NNW to NNE at 6
- 10 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNE at 6
- 10 mph. Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 -
8 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Friday, May 15,
2026.
==================================================================
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions
necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.