SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
April 18, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON
ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A weak front will
move through early on Saturday with morning clouds and then clearing. Flow aloft will come from NW with an
upper-level trough moving through.
Temperatures will continue above average and mixing heights will rise
high. Surface winds will come from
WNW-NW. Transport winds will be from NW.
Sunday will have
mostly cloudy skies and dry weather.
Broad upper-level troughing will have W flow aloft. Temperatures will sink to near seasonable. Mixing
heights will be excellent with cooler air aloft. Winds are expected from WNW-NW.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Monday stays dry
with mostly sunny skies for the region.
Temperatures continue near average and mixing heights will stay good. Winds will come from W-WNW.
Tuesday will have
a few high clouds and dry weather. Flow
aloft will be light from W with weak upper-level ridging. Surface winds will be light and variable,
favoring NW. Light transport winds will
come from WNW-NW. Temperatures will be
above seasonable and mixing heights will be good.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon and evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W
to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6
- 10 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 -
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, April 19 through 21, 2025.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the WNW through NNW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
25 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W
through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.