SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 2, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:

Written forecasts will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).

With the pace and scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the public.

Please call your local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for use primarily by ODF districts.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough will come onshore Tuesday but mainly in N California. It will cause S flow aloft for the region and mostly cloudy skies but otherwise dry weather with slightly above normal temperatures. Mixing will only be poor to fair and with mostly S winds.

Ridging dominates Wednesday for sunny but otherwise little change in weather. Burning conditions are fair with light and variable winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A weak upper trough passes over Thursday. It provides a slight chance of rain and partly sunny conditions while the snow level rises to 6000 feet. Mixing potential is moderate in the afternoon with very light winds, favoring NW.

Another ridge arrives Friday for partly sunny skies and seasonal conditions. Mixing will generally be poor with light and variable winds.

2. DISPERSION

TUESDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon and evening.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning and afternoon. Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to S at 10 - 22 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to SW to WNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

Surface wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon. Mixing heights fall below 1000 ft during the evening. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height 1300 to 2300 ft during the morning rising to 2700 to 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Tuesday and Wednesday, November 3 and 4, 2026.

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For Tuesday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through WNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Wednesday:

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.