SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:

Written forecasts will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).

With the pace and scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the public.

Please call your local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for use primarily by ODF districts.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A weakening upper-level trough passes by early Thursday morning. Areas of showers will provide less than .05” of moisture during morning then skies gradually become sunny. Temperatures will be seasonal. Mixing potential is moderate in the afternoon with very light winds, favoring W-N. Mixing becomes poor towards late afternoon and evening.

A ridge builds over East Oregon Friday as partly sunny skies begin a warming trend. Burning potential is fair in the afternoon as S winds turn WSW-NW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The ridge peaks in strength on Saturday. Mostly sunny skies push temperatures 10-15^oF above normal. Mixing will become fair again in the afternoon, but wind will stay SE-S.

The ridge weakens Sunday and moves east while a trough passes north of the area. Mostly cloudy skies will not prevent continuing warm temperatures. Mixing improves in the afternoon with mostly W winds.

2. DISPERSION

THURSDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft rising to 1400 - 2400 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2900 - 3900 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising 1000 to 1900 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SW at 5 - 7 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to S at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Thursday and Friday, November 5 and 6, 2026.

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For Thursday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

For Friday:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/

909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.