SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 22, 2017       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge, currently over Oregon, will shift to over Idaho on Tuesday.  Warm air aloft will suppress daytime mixing, even with afternoon temperatures at 15-20 degrees above average.  Light SE-SW morning winds will increase and veer to the SW-W Tuesday afternoon, as a surface thermal trough slides from western Oregon across central and eastern Oregon.  A dry marine push will bring cooling W-NW winds, from west to east, Tuesday night.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A dry and cool upper-level trough will increase clouds on Wednesday.  Brisk NW winds will cool temperatures back to near or slightly-below average.  Cooling aloft will promote good afternoon mixing.

The upper-level trough will strengthen Thursday and Friday for a chance of showers and afternoon thundershowers, mainly over the mountains.  Chilly NW-N winds will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below average with good daytime mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and increases to W to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and increases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, May 23, 2017.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.