SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, January 16, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

************************ Holiday Schedule ***************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed on Monday, January 19th. This forecast includes burning instructions through Tuesday, January 20th.

For questions regarding prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Tuesday, January 20th.

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**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please take extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Upper-level ridging will dominate the weekend and well into next week with stable conditions. Flow aloft will come from NW with clear skies on Saturday. Temperatures will climb well-above average. Lights winds will come from SE-S. Mixing heights will be suppressed and burning near SSRAs will be limited for the forecast period.

Sunday will have sunny, dry, and stagnant weather. Winds will be light and variable, favoring NW-NNE. After strong morning inversions, mixing heights will be poor.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Clear skies are expected for Monday with continued above average temperatures. Flow aloft will come from N under the influence of the upper-level ridge. Winds will be light and variable, somewhat from SE-SSE. Mixing heights will be suppressed.

Dry and stable weather lasts into Tuesday with some increasing high clouds late. Flow aloft will be from NW. Light surface winds will be from S and transport winds will come from SW. Temperatures rise well above average. Mixing heights will be low.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rising to 1000 - 1700 ft then lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Saturday through Tuesday, January 17 through 20, 2026.

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For Saturday:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Sunday:

For Monday:

For Tuesday:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.