SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 12, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

 

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

 

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

 

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

 

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

 

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

 

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

 

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

 

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level ridge builds just offshore through the weekend to cause sunny skies and a warming trend, temperatures 5-10oF above average.  Mixing conditions improve through the afternoon on both days with N-NE transport winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The ridge remains and peaks on Monday for little change in conditions except even warmer.  Mostly sunny skies push temperatures 10-15oF above seasonal.  Mixing conditions will be very good with NW-N winds.

 

The ridge weakens by Tuesday and flow aloft will be WNW, but skies remain mostly sunny while there is little change in temperatures.  Good mixing conditions remain with W-NW winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to above 5000 ft by late morning and afternoon.

 

Transport wind NNE to NE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to NNE to ENE at 13 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind increases to NNE to NE at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to above 5000 ft by late morning and afternoon.  Mixing height lowers to 3300 - 4300 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind N to NE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to N to NE at 12 - 24 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4300 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, June 13 through 15, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the N through ENE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the N through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the NNW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through ENE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WNW through ENE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.