SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 3, 2016       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge has shifted east of the state and is centered over the Rockies.  The surface thermal trough has advanced into central Oregon with continued SE transport winds across the region.  Southerly flow aloft is spreading moist and unstable air over the state, so expect increasing clouds tonight.

On Wednesday, the surface thermal trough is expected to continue to slowly slide eastward. Watch for a shift to onshore transport winds, from west to east, in the afternoon and evening.  The chance for showers or thundershowers will also increase in the afternoon and evening, especially for the western zones.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough is predicted to detach from the main jet stream and stall over California Thursday through Saturday.  The circulation around this system will keep some clouds and instability across the region, but the threat of showers should decrease, especially for the northern and western zones. Onshore flow will cool temperatures to near average on Thursday.  Transport winds will veer to more northerly Friday and Saturday with slowly warming temperatures.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW and increases to 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the ESE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.