SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 20, 2019       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

************************** End of Season ****************************

This is the last written weather forecast and set of prescribed-burning instructions for winter season.  The ODF forecast office will remain open Monday through Friday (except holidays), but beginning Monday, December 23rd, you will need to call the forecast office at 503-945-7401, for smoke clearance or for smoke-related questions.

We plan to resume issuing written forecasts/instructions, when prescribed burning picks up in the spring but may resume them sooner, if there is enough demand.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A very moist frontal zone has stalled across Washington and NW Oregon.  South of the front, skies are cloudy across NE Oregon with brisk SE-S winds and unseasonably-mild temperatures.  Snow levels have risen to above 5000 feet.

A potent but slow-moving cold front will swing onshore Saturday.  Ahead of it, the region will remain in the warm sector of the storm.  Expect mostly cloudy skies, continued brisk SE-S winds, and excellent daytime mixing.  Snow levels should stay above 5000 feet.  Areas of light rain and snow are possible Saturday night.

Skies should be cloudy on Sunday, with areas of light rain and snow, as the weakening cold front moves into the region.  Slackening SE-S winds may turn westerly late in the day across the western zones. Snow levels will drop to 3-4000 feet with good daytime mixing.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

On Monday, a cool upper-level trough may produce a few rain and snow showers.  Snow levels will lower to near 2500 feet.  Cool air aloft will maintain good daytime mixing with light SE-SW.  The trough will weaken on Tuesday with partly sunny skies, light SE-S winds, and good daytime mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 18 - 32 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to S to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SE to S at 15 - 25 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 16 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday and Sunday, December 21 and 22, 2019.

    ==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the SE through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning

    5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of piles in

    a unit will allow a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing

    instruction tonnage for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.