SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, January 7, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A few snow showers last into Thursday.  Flow aloft will be strong from NW with an upper-level trough moving east and ridging will build offshore.  Freezing levels will stay under 3000 feet and mixing heights will be high.  Winds will be from W-NW with strong transport winds.  Temperatures will be below seasonable.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Friday will be mostly dry after a few snow showers early.  Light flow aloft will be from NW with upper-level ridging.  Temperatures will rise to near or above average.  Freezing levels will climb to near 4000 feet.  Light winds will turn to come from S-SW.  Mixing heights will start to lower with warmer air aloft.

 

Saturday continues a dry pattern that will last well into next week under the influence of upper-level ridging.  Surface winds will be light from SSE and transport winds will come from S.  Temperatures will be above average.  Freezing levels will further rise to near 5-6000 feet.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.

 

The dry weather and stable conditions continue on Sunday under upper-level ridging.  Mixing heights will be fair to poor with strong morning inversions.  Light surface winds will be from SSE-S.  Transport winds will come from S.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and decreases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 1300 to 2300 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 7 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, January 8, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.