SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, December 5, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Moist air continues to flow into the area from NW through the weekend. Rain and snow are likely at times. Moisture amounts will generally be less than .10” for both Saturday and Sunday, possibly more in the higher mountains. Snow levels on Saturday will be around 4500 feet then it climbs to 5500-6500 feet Sunday. Mixing potential is good on both afternoons. Transport winds are expected to be WSW-W on Saturday then S-SW and lighter by Sunday.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The moist NW flow aloft continues Monday. Little change is expected with mostly cloudy skies and periods of rain, snow above 6500-7500 feet. Temperatures climb to around 10^oF above seasonal levels. Mixing will be good in the afternoon with SW winds.

Rain and high mountain snow continues Tuesday while temperatures remain about 10^oF above average. Burning conditions remain good in the afternoon with SW-W winds.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph during the morning. Transport wind decreases to WSW to W at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon and evening.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4100 - 5000 ft and rises to 4200 - 5000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WSW to W at 15 - 29 mph during the evening.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 7 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 20 - 36 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, December 6 through 8, 2025.

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For Saturday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through W of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through W of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Sunday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Monday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through W of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.