SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
November 21, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST
AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
Upper-level ridging will dominate the
weather pattern on Saturday with dry weather and above average
temperatures. Mixing heights will be
suppressed with warm air aloft. Light surface
winds will come from SSE-S. Transport
winds are expected from S-SSW.
Sunday stays dry until showers arrive
in the evening with totals under 0.05”.
Flow aloft will increase from SW as an upper-level trough moves
inland. Surface winds will come from SW
in central zones and light from S in northeastern zones. Strong transport winds will be from
SSW-SW. Temperatures continue above
seasonable. Mixing heights improve some
but continue suppressed.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Lingering mountain snow lasts into Monday. The
upper-level trough will move inland with NW flow aloft. Freezing levels will drop under 4000
feet. Surface winds will be from
W-WNW. Transport winds will be strong
from WNW-NW. Mixing heights will be good
with surface temperatures near or below average.
A dry day on Tuesday comes with below
seasonable temperatures. Flow aloft will
be from NW with broad upper-level ridging.
Light surface winds will be from SSE and transport winds will come from
S-SSW. Temperatures will be below
seasonable. Mixing heights will be
mostly good.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1900 - 2900
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
Zone 637, 643, 645,
646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 300 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 5 -
9 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 9 - 15
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 12 - 24
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, November 22 through 24, 2025.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SE through SW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SE through SSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the S through W of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles to the S through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.