SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 13, 2026 2:30 PM Pete Parsons

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A potent upper-level trough advances east of the state overnight with showers ending and brisk west winds relaxing. On Thursday, areas of valley fog should give way to mostly sunny skies, as a weak upper-level ridge traverses the region. The air aloft stays cool enough to provide excellent daytime mixing with near-average temperatures and moderate westerly transport winds. A weak upper-level trough brings some clouds Thursday night with the risk of mountain showers north.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A dry and stable westerly flow aloft should provide sunny skies with excellent daytime mixing on Friday. Temperatures will remain near average with W-NW transport winds.

A stronger upper-level trough pushes the jet stream southward, over Oregon, on Saturday. Clouds and NW winds increase along with the chance of showers, especially over the northern mountains. Temperatures will drop to below average with excellent mixing.

A strong and cool NW jet stream stays over Oregon on Sunday. Expect partly cloudy skies with a minimal threat of showers. Temperatures remain below average with excellent mixing and NW winds.

2. DISPERSION

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 14 - 24 mph during the afternoon and evening.

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning. Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph. Surface wind WSW to NW at 7 - 11 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Thursday, May 14, 2026.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.