SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, November 24, 2014       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

As an upper-level ridge builds over Oregon, a surface warm front will keep skies cloudy overnight with a chance of light rain or snow.  Transport winds should be SE-SW with warming aloft lifting snow levels to above 6000 feet by Tuesday morning.

An upper-level ridge will build over Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday.  Areas of light rain, on Tuesday, should push give way to partial clearing and mild temperatures on Wednesday.  Snow levels will rise to above 8000 feet with warming aloft suppressing mixing heights.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The ridge is forecast to flatten and slide east of the region by Thanksgiving Day.  Increasing WSW flow aloft will direct a cold front onshore, with light rain spreading from west to east in the afternoon. Expect increasing SE-SW transport winds and improved daytime mixing.  Snow levels should remain above 7000 feet.

Strong SW flow aloft will direct another cold front across the region on Friday, with significantly improved mixing and increasing SE-SW winds.  Expect areas of rain with snow levels above 6000 feet.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers to 1800 - 2800 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 1000 to 1700 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions valid for burning done on Tuesday, November 25, 2014.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml