SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 26, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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   Information Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:

Like last year, the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).

There will be significant changes this season (details below):

Written forecasts will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays unless updates are needed.  Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.

Please continue to call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance through October.  Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).

Thank you!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level trough will pass over the state on Tuesday bringing some showers, generally less than .10”.  Daytime temperatures remain about 10oF below seasonal while snow levels will be 5000-5500 feet.  Burning conditions will be good in the afternoon with WSW-WNW transport winds.

 

West flow aloft is over the area Wednesday with a few showers, mainly in the higher mountains.  Temperatures remain 10oF below normal.  Mixing again will be very good with SW-W winds.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Another trough approaches the coast on Thursday and turns the upper flow SW.  Partly sunny skies but temperatures remain 10oF below normal.  Mixing will still be good in the afternoon with light SE-SW winds.

 

The trough spreads across Oregon by Friday, still with SW flow aloft.  There is a slight chance of showers, and still cold.  Mixing heights still climb high in the afternoon but with light and variable winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 1000 – 2000 ft early rising 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2200 - 3200 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4100 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1600 - 2600 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 14 - 28 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon then increases to SW to W at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 3400 to 4400 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 20 - 34 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 7 - 13 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27 and 28, 2026.

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For Tuesday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Wednesday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SE through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.