SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, March 19, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A strong upper-level ridge still dominates the region through Friday, causing partly sunny, very warm and dry weather, about 20oF above normal.  A cold front will arrive Friday evening.  Good mixing conditions prevail with mainly SW winds trending NW after the front passes. 

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An upper trough follows the front for Saturday.  A few very light showers will dot the landscape but otherwise the area will be mostly cloudy, dry and much cooler.  Temperatures will be near seasonal levels.  Look for good burning conditions with NW transport winds.

 

Westerly flow aloft will provide a mostly sunny Sunday and again Monday with temperatures returning a little above seasonal.  Burning conditions will generally be good with light and variable winds Sunday becoming lightly NW on Monday afternoon.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1000 - 1600 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to NNW and decreases to 10 - 20 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to NNW and decreases to 8 - 14 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Friday, March 20, 2026.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.