SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 15, 2025 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
************************* Scheduling
Note ***************************
Daily written
forecasts/instructions have resumed! The ODF forecast office will be
staffed Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. Forecasts will be issued on those afternoons
and will include instructions for the following day. The office will
be closed on weekends and on holidays. Friday’s forecasts will include instructions
for Saturday through Monday (through Tuesday, if Monday is a holiday).
As always, please call the
forecast office at 503-945-7401, if you need additional help or have
questions about smoke clearance.
*********************************************************************
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service
recently changed borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use
the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with these
updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast
zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Skies will be clear
much of the day Thursday with some high clouds late as a weak
front moves through. Flow aloft
will come from N with upper-level ridging aligned near the coast. Light surface winds will come from W-NW and transport
winds will be from NW. Temperatures will
be near average and mixing heights will be fair to good.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Friday will have mostly sunny skies
and seasonable temperatures. The broad
upper-level ridge will have NW flow aloft.
Surface winds will come from W.
Transport winds are expected from W-WNW.
Mixing heights will be mostly good with near average temperatures.
Saturday will see a transition in the
weather as the upper-level ridge flattens with W flow aloft. Winds will turn to come
from SW for transport winds and light from S at the surface. Temperatures will rise above average and mixing
heights will be slow to climb.
Rain arrives through the day on
Sunday. Flow aloft will turn to come
from SW before an upper-level trough moves through late. Surface winds will be from SW and strong transport
winds will come from WSW. Freezing level
will decrease through the day down to near 5000 feet. Mixing heights will be good.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8
mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to
4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph
during the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday, October
16, 2025.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the WNW through NNW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW
through N of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the WSW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.