SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 25, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

An upper-level ridge is stationed offshore and causing WNW flow across Oregon with relatively dry conditions.  Skies will be mostly sunny on Thursday and temperatures seasonal.  Mixing heights will be a little lower as transport winds are lightly SW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Little change occurs on Friday.  Continuing sunny conditions will boost temperatures to a few degrees above average.  Mixing potential is moderate with light W afternoon transport winds.

An upper trough will approach the SW corner of Oregon on Saturday.  Skies look to be mostly cloudy and there is a chance of rain and mountain snow but mostly across the south edge of the forecast area.  Mixing conditions will become good by the afternoon with very light SW-W winds.

The trough slips by the south side of Oregon on Sunday.  There is still a slight chance of a shower but skies partly sunny.  Burning potential is still good while winds are light and variable.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2800 - 3800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, February 26, 2026.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.