SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
*********************************************************************
A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Flow aloft will come from NW on
Thursday with an upper-level trough moving east and ridging to the west. A few showers and some mountain snow linger
with rainfall amounts under 0.20”. Winds
will be brisk from NW with below average temperatures. Mixing heights will be excellent with freezing
levels at 4-5000 feet for the afternoon.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Friday will have a few snow showers as
freezing levels rise a little to near 5000 feet. Flow aloft will come from N. Mixing heights will lower some but stay
good. Lighter surface winds will come from
NW with transport winds also from NW.
Temperatures will be seasonable.
Mostly dry weather is likely Saturday
with N flow aloft and impacts from upper-level ridging. Winds will be light and variable, somewhat from
SW for transport winds. Temperatures will
climb above average and freezing levels will be over 6000 feet. Mixing heights will decrease to fair to good.
Sunday will be dry with W flow aloft
as upper-level ridging moves south. Temperatures
will be well above average and mixing heights will be good. Winds will come from WSW-W. Mostly dry weather lasts into
early next week.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.
Surface wind W to
NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to W to NW at 4 - 8
mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 10
- 18 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday, March 5,
2026.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.