SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, March 17, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A large and strong ridge is over the region causing W flow aloft.  Mostly sunny skies on Wednesday will push temperatures to around 20oF above seasonal levels.  Good mixing is expected by afternoon with SW-W winds. 

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Little change is expected Thursday and Friday.  Partly to mostly sunny skies keep daytime temperatures near 20oF above normal.  Good mixing is expected each afternoon with SW winds on Thursday trending W by Friday.

 

A cold front is expected to pass through on Friday night followed by an upper trough on Saturday.  They will cause little or no precipitation but conditions will be mostly cloudy and much cooler, temperatures near seasonal levels.  Burning conditions will be very good with NW transport winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to W at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon then shifts to E to SE and decreases to 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the west transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  In the east transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, March 18, 2026.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.