SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 21, 2013       2:35 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638

 

Upper level low continues to move into the state today bringing very chilly temperatures for this time of year.  The upper low will then park itself over the state tomorrow.  Expect scattered showers through this evening and then more on Wednesday, especially during the afternoon.  Snow level will range from 2500 to 4500 ft.  Air mass will be very unstable with the potential of thundershowers and small hail in some places.  Smoke dispersion will be excellent.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper low will remain over the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.  It will slowly weaken however.  Expect gradual warming through the period but continued showers, mostly during the afternoon hours.  Showers taper off toward the weekend.  Air mass will remain unstable except for some minor stability during the morning. Smoke dispersion will remain excellent.  Wind flow will weaken through the period and become somewhat variable. 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.

 

Transport wind SSW to SW at 20 - 35 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 15 - 30 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NW and decreases to 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.

 

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon and shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, May 22, 2013.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml