SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 21, 2026 2:30 PM Pete Parsons
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Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year,
the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
There will be
significant changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts
will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays,
and Fridays unless updates are needed.
Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.
Please continue to
call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special
smoke clearance through October.
Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF
field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough is moving onto the California Coast this
afternoon and will progress inland on Thursday, pushing clouds northward into the
region with showers and possibly thundershowers developing by late in the day,
mainly east. Temperatures will cool to
just slightly above average with only fair daytime mixing. Light, mostly SE, transport winds will become
gusty near showers late. Rainfall may locally exceed .25” Thursday night,
especially east.
A few showers may linger in the east through Friday morning,
with skies clearing, from west to east, Friday afternoon. Cooling aloft will improve daytime mixing with
brisk NW transport winds holding daytime temperatures below average.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
High pressure builds over the area this weekend for a return
to sunny skies, after areas of morning fog.
Frosty starts will give way to sunny afternoons with temperatures recovering
to near average. Daytime mixing will get
suppressed by warming aloft with SE winds on Saturday turning more S-SW on
Sunday.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000
ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 -
10 mph during the afternoon and increases to NW to NNW at 15 - 29 mph during
the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the
evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000
ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and
increases to 10 - 20 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SE to S at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then shifts and increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph
during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNW at
14 - 24 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at
8 - 14 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, October 22 and 23, 2026.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the WNW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
WNW through E in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The
ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire
zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.