SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, October 17, 2019 2:35 PM Pete Parsons

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong westerly jet stream, aimed directly at Oregon, will drive a series of weather systems across the state through Saturday. Rainfall should be greatest Friday morning and Saturday morning, but showers are possible at any time. Precipitation totals over the next two days will likely exceed .50”, especially over higher terrain. Snow levels are currently near 6000 feet and will slowly drop to about 4000 feet by Saturday night. Mixing will be excellent with brisk SW-W winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The jet stream will begin to migrate north of the state on Sunday with rain and snow showers tapering off. Snow levels will rise to above 5000 feet late. Additional rainfall should be less than .10” with good daytime mixing and mostly SW transport winds.

A warm front will maintain cloudy skies, along with a chance of rain, on Monday. Rainfall totals may locally exceed .10”. Snow levels will rise to above 8000 feet with warm air aloft suppressing daytime mixing. Transport winds should be mostly SW.

2. DISPERSION

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning. Mixing height lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the west transport wind WSW to W at 14 - 28 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. In the east transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 20 - 36 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

are valid for burning done on Friday, October 18, 2019.

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Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units within 5 miles to the SSW through W of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning

5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of piles in

a unit will allow a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing

instruction tonnage for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.