SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 4, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please take extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Thursday will have continued stable conditions with dry weather and a few high-level clouds.  Flow aloft will be from S as upper-level ridging slides east with a trough far offshore.  Winds will come from SSE-SE.  Temperatures climb well-above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be fair to poor.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Onshore flow returns on Friday with an upper-level trough moving into California.  The weather will stay dry with high-level clouds.  Light surface winds will be from SSE-SW.  Transport winds are expected from SW-WSW.  Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights low.

 

Saturday will have increasing clouds late with a brief round of upper-level ridging.  Mixing heights will be fair to poor.  Winds will come from SSW-SW.

 

A changing weather pattern starts Sunday with SW flow aloft.  Showers will increase late and overnight.  Winds will be from S-SW with increasing transport winds.  Mixing heights will improve.  More showers and mountain snow are expected early in the week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 300 ft during the morning rising to 1300 - 2300 ft during the afternoon lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 300 ft during the morning rising to 1300 - 2300 ft during the afternoon lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, February 5, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through S of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the E through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through S of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.