SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 18, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A cold upper-level trough will be over the region on Thursday to maintain light snow showers, mostly cloudy skies and temperatures below average.  Cold air aloft maintains excellent daytime mixing.  SE-S winds will become light and turn mainly NNW-NNE by evening.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A transitory ridge shuts off the snow showers on Friday, becoming partly sunny but still chilly.  Warming aloft begins to suppress daytime mixing a little with light SW-W transport winds.


That ridge becomes parked over Idaho for Saturday and Sunday with a large trough well offshore.  Winds aloft will be SW.  Skies will be partly sunny both days; temperatures rise close to average by Sunday
.  Daytime mixing will generally be good with S transport winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 - 4200 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SE to S at 12 - 24 mph during the morning.  Transport decreases to SE to S at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NNW to NNE and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4300 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 15 - 29 mph.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, February 19, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.