SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 17, 2019       2:35 PM      Nick Yonker

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

Weak upper level ridging, which has built over the state today, will shift eastward tonight as an incoming trough will bring another cold front to the region on Saturday. Moisture will move in during the mid to later afternoon. Air mass will remain generally unstable.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

      Upper level trough will move into the state on Sunday and remain over the state through Tuesday with another disturbance moving through the flow late Monday. Air mass will remain mostly unstable.

   

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

 

Transport wind SSE to S at 12 - 24 mph.

 

Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 20 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the west mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  In the east mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 3800 to 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 18 and 19, 2019.

    ==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the ENE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WNW through NNE of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.