SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 10, 2024
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
************** New Permanent Forecast
Office Hours ******************
To best serve the field
staff, the “year-round” ODF forecast office hours are Monday – Friday, 7 a.m. –
5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).
Written forecasts will include burning instructions for the following
day, and Friday’s forecasts will include burning instructions through the next
working day (usually the following Monday). Forecasts are typically issued from
October through June.
After reviewing the
written forecast, please call the ODF forecast line (503-945-7401) with any
burning-related questions. If you have a
need for weekend office staffing, please contact us in advance.
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A
strong upper-level ridge will remain over Oregon on Saturday, weakening by
Sunday as a trough approaches from the west. The ridge will cause sunny and stable
conditions for both Saturday and Sunday, temperatures about 15oF
above seasonal averages. Low early
morning mixing heights will improve nicely with W-NW transport winds on Saturday
afternoon then mainly W on Sunday.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
On
Monday a weak trough will pass mainly to the north of the state. Skies will still be mostly sunny and onshore
flow will lower temperatures slightly.
Burning conditions will generally be excellent with W-NW winds.
The trough will be east of the state by Tuesday with NW flow
aloft. Sunny skies will keep
temperatures still a little above seasonal. After low early morning mixing heights burning
opportunities will still be very good wind NW-N winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Low early morning
mixing height below 1000 ft rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through
the afternoon.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and
evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 9 -
15 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during
the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to
WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable
during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
7 - 11 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height 1000
to 2000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph
during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 16 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind NW to N at 5
- 9 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 11 through 13, 2024.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section
5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly
through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through NNW
in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.
No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section
5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly
through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through N
in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.
No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section
5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly
through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the SW through NNW
in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.
No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles
to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.