SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 27, 2016       2:35 PM      Nick Yonker

 

****In observance of the Memorial Day holiday, the Smoke Management office will be closed Monday, May 30th. A forecaster will be in the office on Sunday, May 29th and will issue forecasts for Monday and Tuesday. Please call either on Friday or Sunday for any burning you wish to conduct over the weekend or early next week.****

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

Upper level trough, which is currently over the state, will weaken tomorrow, providing more sunshine and warmer temperatures. Air mass will stabilize more overnight but will quickly destabilize tomorrow with late morning to afternoon heating. Wind flow will be fairly light and variable, favoring W to NW flow during the day then shifting to northerly during the evening.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Weakened trough remains over the state Sunday with a minor disturbance moving through the flow. At this time, it doesn’t appear the disturbance will have too much effect other than increase the wind speed some during the day. Upper level ridge builds into the state Monday and Tuesday, bringing considerable warming and clear skies. Air mass will stabilize during the evening through morning hours but afternoon heating will bring good mixing. Wind flow will go from onshore on Sunday to northerly on Monday to variable but favoring offshore flow on Tuesday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.

 

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 4000 - 5000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 7 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 28 and 29, 2016.

    ==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.