SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
December 18, 2020 2:35
PM Gary
Votaw
*********************************************************************************
* COVID-19
Fall/Winter Updated Prescribed Burning Restrictions
*
*
*
*A new plan has
been put in place by the Governor. It is based on risk level: *
*Extreme, High,
Moderate, and Lower Risk.
*
*
*
*A map of the
risk levels is located at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/ *
*Oregon.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/Risk
*
*
*
*Since most of
the state is in High or Extreme Risk, the instruction is now
*
*defaulted to
legacy rules (prior to March 1, 2019). Exceptions to the rule
*
*can be made if
burning in Moderate or Lower risk counties. Call the
forecaster.*
*********************************************************************************
************************** End
of Season ****************************
This
is the last written weather forecast and set of prescribed-burning instructions
for winter season. We plan to resume issuing written forecasts/instructions,
when prescribed burning picks up in the spring but may resume them sooner, if
there is enough demand.
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES
637-646
There will be a
chance of rain or snow on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies. Snow levels will be around 5000 ft west and 3500 ft east. Low mixing heights in the morning will
rise to 5000 ft in the west with S to SW transport
winds. But mixing in the east will
remain 2000 ft or lower, especially for valleys east
of the Blue Mountains, where transport winds will be very light and
variable.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Rain and mountain snow will
become widespread on Saturday night and Sunday as a Pacific storm passes
through, with 0.25” to 0.50” of rain being common in valleys and 1.00” possible
in mountains. The snow level will
rise over 7000 ft throughout the area by late Sunday.
Mixing levels on Sunday will rise above 5000 ft
with S to SW winds for good burning opportunities but mixing in valleys east of
the Blue Mountains will still struggle to reach 2000 ft with light and variable winds. A ridge will temporarily dry the area on
Monday and burning potential
becomes better throughout the region with mixing climbing above 5000 ft and SW to W winds.
Tuesday will see showers ending as the upper trough moves into the
Rockies. Mixing will still be very
good with mainly NW winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
1700 - 2700 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 -
5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at
13 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during
the evening.
Surface wind S to
SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Surface wind increases to S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon
then decreases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the
evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft during the morning and afternoon. Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon, except S at 5 – 10
zones 645 and 646. Transport wind
decreases to SSE to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the evening. Mixing height in zones 645 and 646
remain below 1000 ft all day.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 6 - 10 mph except S at 4 – 8 mph zones 645 and
646.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1200 to
2200 ft during the afternoon, except below 1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10
mph. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon. Transport and surface
winds east of the Blue Mountains will be light from the S.
MONDAY
Mixing height
2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon, except below 1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains. Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph
during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 22 - 40 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph
during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon. Transport and surface winds east of the
Blue Mountains will be light from the S.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
4500 to 5000 ft throughout the day, except still under
1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains. Transport wind NW to NNW at 18 - 30 mph
during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 22 mph
during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Transport winds east of the Blue
Mountains will be SE at 7 – 12 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES
637-646
The following considerations
should be adhered to in addition to
the
requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These
Instructions are valid for
burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 19 and 20,
2020.
==================================================================
For
Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Avoid ignitions
within 15 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S
through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that
will smolder significantly overnight.
Complete ignitions by 230 p.m.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Avoid ignitions
within 15 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the
SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that
will smolder significantly overnight.
Complete ignitions by 230 p.m.
For
Sunday:
Unfavorable
burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the
SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
35 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that
will smolder significantly overnight.
Complete ignitions by 230 p.m.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management
forecaster is available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this
number and not individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns
(over
2000 tons) or burns
extending over a considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling
before
8 a.m. and between 2 to 3
p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or
unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the
link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units
have been planned and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or
accomplished burns is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be
monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of
all
burns is highly recommended for both smoke management
purposes and wildfire potential.