SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 25, 2018       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

******************** Important Scheduling Note **********************

The ODF smoke forecast office will be closed Saturday, May 26th and Sunday, May 27th.  The office will reopen on Monday, May 28th.  This forecast includes burning instructions for both Saturday and Sunday.  If you have questions about burning for either of those days, please call the ODF Forecast Desk prior to 5 p.m. today (Friday). 

If you have questions regarding burning plans for Monday, please call the ODF Forecast Desk Monday morning for verbal instructions.  The next written forecast/instructions will be issued Monday afternoon.

ODF Forecast Desk: 503-945-7401

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough over California is circulating moist and unstable air northward into Oregon.  Daytime heating is enhancing shower and thundershower activity.  Local downpours are possible later today and tonight.  In addition, cooler marine air will push, from west to east, across the region overnight.

As the upper-level trough pushes across Nevada, the air mass will slowly dry and stabilize on Saturday, especially west.  Strong onshore flow will drop temperatures to below average with good daytime mixing.

A weak ridge should push the showers mostly into Idaho on Sunday with clearing skies and near-average temperatures. Brisk transport winds will turn more northerly with continued good daytime mixing.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

More sunshine will warm temperatures a few degrees on Monday, with just a risk of afternoon showers near the Idaho border.  The next weather system will be mostly dry but should bring increasing clouds and onshore flow Monday night and Tuesday.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3200 - 4200 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 16 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Saturday and Sunday, May 26 and 27, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the WNW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the WNW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.