SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
March 10, 2014 2:35 PM Pete Parsons
************** Important
Schedule and Product Updates **************
Due to an
increase in burning requests, mainly in central Oregon, we are temporarily
issuing daily forecasts. These
“off-season” forecasts will be discontinued, when the number of planned burns
drops off.
********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
After a very wet
Monday, the air mass will dry out and stabilize tonight and Tuesday, as an
upper-level trough slowly shifts east of the state. Rain and snow showers will taper off, from
west to east, overnight with slowly decreasing NW winds.
A dry, cool, and
stable northerly flow aloft will take over on Tuesday. Drainage winds will prevail around daybreak,
especially across the western zones. A
building surface thermal trough, along the southern coast, will slowly turn
transport winds to the NE in the afternoon.
After a cool morning, mostly sunny skies will warm temperatures to near
average with fair to good mixing. The
freezing level will rise to about 7000 feet west and 5500 feet east.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A broad upper-level
ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies on Wednesday. After another chilly morning, daytime
temperatures should moderate to a few degrees above average. A weak cold front may spread some high clouds
across the northern zones late in the day, as the surface thermal trough gets
forced into central Oregon and transport winds veer to the SE-S.
A flat and broad
upper-level ridge will maintain a stable NW flow aloft Thursday and Friday,
with light morning drainage winds yielding to weak west to NW winds in the
afternoons. A weak weather system may
bring some clouds, mainly to the northern zones, but only a threat of light
precipitation near the northern border.
Daytime mixing should be fair to good.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 630 and 632:
Mixing
height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to
above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the
evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to NE to E at 6 - 10
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Zone 633 - 638:
Mixing
height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to
above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the
evening.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
Surface
wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.
Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain
during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to
3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to S
at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to
3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface
wind light and variable.
FRIDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to
3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface
wind light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 630-638
The following considerations should be
adhered to in addition to
the requirements
of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These
Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, March 11, 2014.
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Zone 630 and 632:
Avoid ignitions
within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.
For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid
burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will
smolder significantly overnight. Complete
ignitions by 4 p.m.
Zone 633 - 638:
Avoid ignitions
within 15 miles to the NNW through ENE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly
through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of
SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from
SSRAs if burning in any other direction.
Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly
overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss
daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling before
8 a.m. and between 2 to 3
p.m.
This forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml