SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
October 12, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast
office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on
weekends and state holidays).
There will be significant
changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts will be
issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and
Fridays unless updates are needed.
Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.
Please continue to call the
ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke
clearance through October. Beginning in
November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on
that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Upper-level ridging will replace the
weekend’s trough with dry weather and mostly clear skies. Winds will be light from WNW at the surface
and from NW for transport winds. Temperatures will rise some to near
seasonable. Mixing heights will lower
but stay good with warmer air aloft.
A few high clouds are likely on Wednesday
with upper-level ridging and NW flow aloft.
Temperatures will climb above average and mixing heights will be high. Winds are expected from NW-NNW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Thursday will have influence from
upper-level ridging with clear skies and well above seasonable
temperatures. Winds will
turn to come from SE with light flow aloft. Mixing heights will be high.
Clouds gradually increase Friday with
increasing SW flow aloft ahead of broad upper-level troughing. Winds will be from S. Temperatures will continue well above average. Mixing heights will decrease some.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000
ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain
during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers below 1000
ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon
then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the
evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to
4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 10 - 22
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
9 - 15 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 -
8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday and
Wednesday, October 13 and 14, 2026.
==================================================================
For Tuesday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W
through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Wednesday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.