SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 9, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Information Regarding
Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast office
will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends
and state holidays).
There will be significant changes this
season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued in
the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions
for multiple days.
The forecast phone recording at
503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to call the ODF
forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance
through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to
your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Cold and
relatively dry air following a cold front which passed by today will dominate
the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will be
mostly cloudy with temperatures 10-15oF below seasonal. As the upper-level trough remains over West
Oregon there is a chance of a very light shower for Sunday and Sunday night. Moisture will be less than .05” and snow
levels possibly down to 4000 feet during early morning and rising over 5000
feet in the afternoon. Mixing on both Saturday
and Sunday will be good with NW-N winds.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Little change
will be noted on Monday as the trough finally arrives overhead. There is another chance of a very light
shower under mostly cloudy skies, with still chilly conditions. Mixing becomes good by afternoon with very
light NW-N winds.
A ridge nudges
over the region by Tuesday for sunny skies and temperatures climbing back to
near normal. Afternoon mixing is again
good with light NW-N winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height 1500
– 2500 ft rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during
the afternoon then lowers to 2300 - 3300 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to NW to NNE at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height 1500
– 2500 ft rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3900 - 4900
ft then lowers to 3100 - 4100 ft during the evening.
Transport wind NW
to N at 10 - 18 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind NW
to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at
12 - 22 mph. Surface wind NW to N at 5 -
9 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning
becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 10 through 12, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
to the WNW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through NE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NNE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.