SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, December 21, 2017       2:35 PM      Nick Yonker

 

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***The ODF Smoke Management Office will issue the final written forecast and instructions for 2017 on Thursday, December 21st to cover prescribed burning operations planned for Friday, December 22nd. Any controlled burning planned for the upcoming holiday weekend will need to be verbally coordinated no later than 5:00 p.m. on Friday, December 22nd in order to receive clearance for ignitions. The ODF Smoke Management Office will be closed on Monday, December 25th to observe the Christmas Day holiday, and will re-open on Tuesday, December 26th at 7:00 a.m.***
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

Upper level ridge has nosed into the state with the axis positioned off the Pacific coastline. Air mass has stabilized and will remain stable through Friday. A modified arctic front will drop southward tomorrow but will stall as it crosses the Oregon/Washington border. Nevertheless, the northern part of the region will get some instability and some afternoon snow showers. For the most part, stable conditions will limit most burning opportunities.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Ridge will build in stronger on Saturday and dry out the air mass as the arctic front slides to the east. Another front approaches the coast on Sunday but dissipates as it moves inland. Air mass will remain stable Sunday and into Monday. Burn opportunities will remain limited.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NE at 5 - 7 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, December 22, 2017.

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Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.