SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, January 8, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

After a few lingering snow showers, Friday will start a pattern with upper-level ridging and more stable, dry conditions.  Flow aloft will be light from NW.  Winds will become light and turn to come from S-SSW.  Freezing levels will increase to near 4000 feet with surface temperatures near or above average.  Mixing heights will be fair at best.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will be dry with mid-level clouds under upper-level ridging.  Light surface winds will be from SSE while transport winds are expected from S.  Temperatures will rise above average.  Mixing heights will be fair to poor.

 

A few high clouds and dry weather are likely for Sunday.  Temperatures will be above seasonable.  Light surface winds will come from SSE-S.  Transport winds will be from S-SSW.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.

 

Monday will have a few mid to high level clouds as the upper-level ridge continues to impact the region.  Light surface winds will be from S-SSW.  Transport winds will come from SW.  Mixing heights will be poor after strong morning inversions.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1300 - 2300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1300 - 2300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1100 to 2100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Friday, January 9, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.