SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
March 9, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Tuesday will have a few snow showers
possible north with strong, W flow aloft and upper-level ridging far to the
south. Temperatures will be below
seasonable with snow levels under 4000 feet.
Mixing heights will rise high with winds will come from WNW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Flow aloft will be from WNW with the jet
stream further north in Washington and a few showers possible in northeastern zones. Winds will shift to come from S-SW, stronger
in central zones. Temperatures will climb
to near seasonable and freezing levels will rise to near 5000 feet. Mixing heights will be good but lower with warmer
air aloft.
The weather pattern continues
on Thursday with the jet to the north and a few showers possible. Winds will come from SW-WSW. Temperatures will be seasonable and mixing heights will be good.
Friday will have dry weather and W flow aloft. Temperatures
will rise above average. Mixing heights
will decrease some to fair to good with warmer air aloft. Winds are expected from SW. The track of the jet will determine rain
chances for the weekend.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport
wind W to NW at 10 - 18
mph throughout the morning and afternoon.
Transport wind shifts to SW to W and decreases to 7 - 11 mph during the
evening.
Surface wind W to
NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. In the west
transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW
at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon. In
the east transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW
to SW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 24 mph. Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to
3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 15 -
25 mph during the afternoon. Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, March 10,
2026.
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Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the S
through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.