SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 2, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Resumption of
Written Prescribed-Burning Forecasts/Instructions
The ODF Smoke Management Forecast
Office has resumed prescribed-burning forecasts/instructions for the 2026-27
season!
There will be significant changes this
season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued in
the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions
for multiple days.
Please continue to call the ODF
forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance
through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to
your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A building ridge
causes sunny and very warm conditions through this weekend. Temperatures reach 20-25oF above
seasonal levels by Sunday as the ridge peaks.
Mixing heights will be slow to rise early but reaching good levels in
the afternoons with SE-SSW winds on Saturday and Sunday.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
A very weak
trough passes over the area on Monday, but little change will be noted except
to cause a little cooling. Temperatures
for Monday and Tuesday still reach 15-20oF above normal. Mixing heights will again be slow to rise but
become good in the afternoons. Look for very
light winds favoring mainly NW on both afternoons.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the
afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to SSW at 9 - 15 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to NE to E and
decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the
afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to SE to SSW at 6 -
12 mph during the afternoon and evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 3 through 5, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through
SSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles
to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.