SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 17, 2016       2:35 PM      Gary Votaw

 

***THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED FORECAST FOR THE FALL BURNING SEASON***

 

***FOR ANY BURNING PLEASE CALL THE FORECAST LINE (503-945-7401). FORECAST INSTRUCTIONS WILL PICK UP NEXT SPRING, OR SOONER IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WINTER TIME BURNING. OFFICE HOURS WILL BE 700 AM TO 500 PM ON MONDAY-FRIDAY***

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

A ridge will hold on to keep the region dry on Sunday and mixing will continue rather poor with transport winds slowly increasing.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

There will be a chance of snow on Monday as the next storm system approaches the Oregon coast. Warmer air arriving aloft along with the persistent snow cover will cause mixing to continue poor with S winds. Snow chances will increase that night and then become rain at lowest elevations on Tuesday. Mixing will improve as SW winds become W. Dry conditions and poor mixing will return on Wednesday before another storm on Thursday provides another chance of rain and snow. A ridge will again dominate by Friday and Saturday with dry conditions.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft during the morning lowering below 1000 ft during the afternoon and evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and increases to S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind increases to SE to S at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft during the morning lowering below 1000 ft during the afternoon and evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to SSE to S at 12 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 1800 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 11 - 21 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 1700 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 18 and 19, 2016.

    ==================================================================

 

For Sunday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. 

 

For Monday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.