SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, June 8, 2015       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

************** Important Schedule and Product Update ***************

Spring prescribed burning appears to be mostly completed, so this will be the final issuance of the smoke management forecast until burning picks up again in the fall.

Please call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401, Monday - Friday from 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., if you have smoke-related questions or need smoke clearance.

********************************************************************

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure is directly over Oregon this afternoon.  A surface thermal trough extends from north-central to SW Oregon with light winds across NE Oregon.  Temperatures are running 5-10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago under sunny skies.  Some record highs are likely today.  Even with record-warm temperatures, warm air aloft is suppressing mixing.

The upper-level ridge is expected to shift over the Rockies on Tuesday with increasing SW flow aloft over Oregon.  That will force the surface thermal trough to near the Idaho border by Tuesday afternoon.  Light winds may turn onshore across the western zones.  Near-record heat should continue with just a few degrees of cooling, mainly west.  Enough mid-level moisture and instability may slide northward to trigger afternoon and evening thundershowers, mainly across the southern and eastern zones.  Winds may become erratic near thundershowers.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A weak and dry upper-level trough will slide across southern British Columbia on Wednesday with the flow aloft turning more westerly over Oregon.  That should initiate some onshore flow and cooling. Drier air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will decrease the afternoon thundershower threat.  Cooling aloft will improve daytime mixing with increasing NW transport winds.

A flat upper-level ridge will rebuild offshore on Thursday with a dry NW flow aloft producing sunny skies.  Temperatures should stay 10-15 degrees above average with NW transport winds and good mixing.

A stronger but dry upper-level trough is predicted to sweep across southern British Columbia on Friday, which will turn the flow aloft westerly and initiate a significant “marine push” in the afternoon.  A dry WSW flow aloft should provide more seasonal temperatures over the weekend with decreasing onshore flow.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW at 12 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, June 9, 2015.

    ==================================================================

 

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml