SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
June 23, 2017 2:35 PM Pete Parsons
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The final Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Spring/Summer 2017
will be issued on Saturday, June 24th 2017. Additional support will
be available by telephone from the on-duty meteorologist at (503) 945-7401
Mon-Fri, 7am to 5pm.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A building
upper-level ridge will keep skies clear through Saturday. Warming aloft will suppress daytime mixing
with light N-NE winds. Surface
temperatures will climb to about 10 degrees above average.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A strong upper-level
ridge will move directly over eastern Oregon on Sunday. Continued warming aloft will further suppress
daytime mixing. Surface temperatures
will climb to about 15 degrees above average, with light transport winds
veering to SE.
The upper-level
ridge will progress east of the state by Monday with increasing SW flow aloft
introducing enough moisture and instability for possible thundershower
development. Increasing onshore
transport winds will usher cooler marine air, from west to east, across the
region in the afternoon.
On Tuesday, a more
stable westerly flow aloft should end the shower threat. Strong onshore transport winds will drop
surface temperatures back to near average.
Cooling aloft will improve mixing, but brisk low-level winds may cause
smoke to fumigate.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft
then lowers to 1000 - 1700 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 5 - 9 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind N
to NE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain
during the afternoon then increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind light and variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to
NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to
NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW
to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to
NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
The following considerations should be
adhered to in addition to
the requirements
of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These
Instructions are valid for burning conducted
on Saturday, June 24, 2017.
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Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Unfavorable
burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NW
through ENE of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35
miles in all directions of SSRAs. Verify
transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Recommend against burning units that will
smolder significantly overnight.
Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Unfavorable
burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion. Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NW
through NE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles
to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction.
Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly
overnight. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss
daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling before
8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.