SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
May 14, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A weak upper-level trough brings some clouds tonight, mainly
north, with a risk of a shower over the mountains. NW winds will slowly relax. In its wake, a dry and stable westerly flow
aloft should bring clearing with excellent daytime mixing on Friday. Temperatures will be slightly below average with
W-NW winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A stronger upper-level trough pushes the jet stream
southward, over Oregon, on Saturday. NW winds and showers increase, especially
over higher terrain. Rainfall totals may
locally exceed .10”. Temperatures should
cool to 10-15°F below average with excellent daytime mixing.
Sunday, the upper-level trough slides eastward, to over
Idaho, with a cool NW flow aloft over Oregon.
Expect partly cloudy skies with a minimal threat of morning showers. Temperatures remain about 10-15°F below average
with excellent mixing and brisk NW winds.
A NW jet stream stays over the region Monday, as an
upper-level ridge slowly builds. A weak
warm front should maintain some clouds, but the threat of rainfall will be
minimal and mainly over the NE mountains.
Daytime mixing remains good.
Temperatures will recover to within 5°F of average with continued NW
winds.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.
Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 10 -
20 mph during the morning. Transport
wind increases to WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon and increases
to WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.
Surface wind shifts to S to SW and increases to 9 - 15 mph during the
afternoon then shifts to WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
and remains above 5000 ft through the evening.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph during the
afternoon and increases to WNW to NW at 16 - 30 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
3800 to 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
18 - 32 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 22 - 38 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10
- 18 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 10
- 16 mph. Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 -
12 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 -
10 mph. Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8
mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Friday, May 15,
2026.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NW
of SSRAs. No additional restrictions
necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions
necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.