SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, November 13, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A few showers remain to the north on Friday, but the bulk of the precipitation will have ended as an upper-level trough moves inland.  Winds will come from SW, light at the surface.  Temperatures will be above average and mixing heights will be good.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will have partly cloudy skies and dry weather.  Broad upper-level ridging builds in behind the departing trough with light flow aloft.  Winds will be light from SSE-SW.  Mixing heights will be suppressed with warmer air aloft.  Temperatures continue above seasonable.

 

A system will move southwest of the region on Sunday with some showers to the east late.  Another upper-level trough will be offshore with light SW flow aloft.  Surface winds will be light and variable.  Transport winds will come from S.  Temperatures stay above average and mixing heights will be fair to good.

 

Showers arrive with the next upper-level trough moving inland for Monday.  Freezing levels will drop to 5-6000 feet.  Temperatures will be near seasonable.  Surface winds are expected from S while transport winds will come from SSW.  Mixing heights will rise high.  Rain and mountain snow continue into Tuesday.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 3300 - 4300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1900 to 2900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Friday, November 14, 2025.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the S through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.