SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 9, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:

Written forecasts will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).

With the pace and scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the public.

Please call your local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for use primarily by ODF districts.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Broad upper-level ridging will build and replace the front that moves through on Monday. Rain will end early Tuesday with a few hundredths of an inch totals. Winds will be from S-SSW. Mixing heights will be fair to poor as the air warms aloft. Temperatures will climb well above seasonable.

Wednesday stays dry with SW flow aloft as ridging shifts inland. Surface winds will come from SSE while transport winds will be from S-SSW. Temperatures will be well above average and mixing heights will be fair.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Dry weather continues Thursday with the upper ridge over the Rockies and troughing offshore. Flow aloft will come from S with above average surface temperatures. Winds will be from SE-S. Mixing heights will be good.

Rain holds off until late on Friday as a new upper low approaches. Winds will be from SSE-S and stronger in central zones. Mixing heights will improve with above average temperatures. Showers are likely for the weekend.

2. DISPERSION

TUESDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 15 - 25 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Tuesday through Thursday, November 10 through 12, 2026.

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For Tuesday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the E through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Wednesday:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Thursday:

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/

909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.