SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, December 24, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
********************** Christmas Schedule ***************************
The ODF forecast office will be closed on Christmas Day and reopen at 7
a.m. on December 26th. This forecast includes burning instructions
through Friday, December 26th (2 days).
For questions regarding prescribed burning planned for this period,
please call the forecast office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after
7 a.m. on Friday, December 26th.
Have a Merry Christmas!
*********************************************************************1.
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough is
offshore and causing warm and moist SW flow, windy at the surface. On Thursday light showers provide .10” or
less of moisture, except possibly .25” in the Wallowas. Snow levels will be
5500-6000 feet. Look for very good
mixing and strong S-SSW transport winds for the western zones. The east will see mixing not as good with
SE-S winds.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
On Friday
the trough is expected to weaken and finally move into Oregon, bringing colder
air. Light showers persist, .10” or less. Surface temperatures fall close to average
while snow levels fall to 3000-3500 feet.
Afternoon mixing looks good throughout the region with SSE-SSW winds.
The trough moves east of Oregon Saturday with NNW flow pushing
well mixed air across the region. Skies
turn partly sunny and temperatures fall below seasonal levels. Mixing conditions
are good with W-NW winds.
An upper ridge arrives Saturday night and will cause partly sunny
skies with poor mixing potential and Sunday and early next week. Mixing will be fair for a
few hours in the afternoon with light and variable winds.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 3700 - 4700 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during
the afternoon then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to S at 25 - 45 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to S to SSW at 34 - 54 mph during the afternoon
then decreases to S to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SE
to S at 10 - 16 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 -
14 mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500
ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SE to S at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon
and evening.
Surface wind ESE
to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.
Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon
and evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind S to SSW at 16
- 30 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 -
14 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
3400 to 4400 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at
12 - 24 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at
8 - 14 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1800 to 2800 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light
and variable during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, December 25 and 26, 2025.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see
section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see
section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through SSW of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through
WSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 8 miles
to the SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.