SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Tuesday,
May 17, 2022
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
*********************** Scheduling Note ****************************
The ODF forecast
office has resumed daily Northeast Oregon forecasts and will add Sunday service
as necessary. Operations (7 a.m. until 5
p.m.) will continue for the duration of the spring burning season (office is
closed on Saturdays). Written forecasts
will be issued each afternoon with burning instructions for the following
day. Friday’s forecasts will have
burning instructions for the weekends.
If
you have any questions, please call us at 503-945-7401.
********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An
upper-level trough will arrive from the west on Wednesday and will cause mostly
cloudy skies and a few snow showers on the highest peaks, snow level 8-9000
ft. Mixing heights will be high with W
transport winds becoming stronger west of Prairie City in the afternoon.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
The
cold upper trough will remain over the area Thursday to keep skies mostly
cloudy and with areas of showers, snow level only 3500 - 4500 ft but with less
than .10” of moisture. Mixing heights
will again be high with WNW to NW transport winds.
Cold
NW flow aloft will be over the area for Friday and Saturday. Partly sunny and cool conditions will persist,
temperatures 5-10oF below normals, and there will be a chance of
showers each day. Mixing heights will
rise nicely through both days, and while winds in the morning will be very
light transport winds will be N to NW in the afternoons.
2. DISPERSION
WEDNESDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft during the morning.
Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to
3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SW
to W at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 22 - 40 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to W to WNW at 14 - 28 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.
Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon
then decreases to W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
4300 - 5000 ft during the morning.
Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to
3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SW
to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.
Transport wind shifts to W to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon
then increases to W to WNW at 16 - 30 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 -
16 mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY
Mixing height
3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NW at
12 - 22 mph. Surface wind W to NW at 10
- 20 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 16 - 30 mph during the
afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the
afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind N to NE at 4
- 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Wednesday, May 18,
2022.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the SW
through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW
of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units
as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.