SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, March 12, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

*********************************************************************

A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line. Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

*********************************************************************

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong jet stream will stay north of the region on Friday but with a few showers closer to the northern border, heavier in northeastern zones. Winds will be strong from SW-WSW. Seasonable temperatures will come with good mixing heights.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Saturday will be the last day of impacts from the strong jet stream. Showers will move from north to south as the jet dips into Oregon with NW flow aloft. Temperatures will drop below average and snow levels to the north will be under 4000 feet. Winds will turn to come from NW. Mixing heights will be high.

Upper-level ridging builds on Sunday and the week ahead with NW flow aloft. The weather will be mostly dry with seasonable temperatures. Surface winds will be light and variable. Transport winds will come from W in central zones and SW in northeastern zones. Mixing heights will be fair to good with warmer air aloft.

Monday will be mostly dry with NW flow and impacts from ridging. Temperatures will climb well above average. Winds will be onshore with transport winds from W. Mixing heights will be fair. Warm and dry weather lasts into midweek.

2. DISPERSION

FRIDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the evening.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph throughout the day.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning. Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

In the west mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. In the east mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Friday, March 13, 2026.

==================================================================

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through W of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

=========================================================

4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.