SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 16, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast
office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on
weekends and state holidays).
There will be significant
changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts will be issued
in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays
unless updates are needed. Forecasts
will include burning instructions for multiple days.
Please continue to call the
ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke
clearance through October. Beginning in
November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on
that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
An upper-level trough will move north
of the region on Saturday and help limit the impacts of ridging. Showers will stay west with high clouds. Winds will turn onshore with SW-W transport
winds. Temperatures will still be above
average though cooler. Mixing heights
will be good.
Sunday will be mostly sunny with
seasonable temperatures. Another upper
trough will be far offshore with SW flow aloft.
Surface winds will be light and variable. Transport winds will come from S-SSW. Mixing heights will be fair.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Partly cloudy skies are expected Monday as the upper trough moves closer to the
region. Winds will be from S-SSW. Temperatures will drop to
near or below seasonable. Mixing heights
will be high.
The upper trough moves inland on Tuesday and early clouds will decrease through the day. Surface winds will be light and variable. Transport winds will come from S-SSW. Temperatures will be below average. Mixing heights will rise high.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1900 - 2900 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000
ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SW
to W at 8 - 12 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to NW to N and
decreases to 6 - 10 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300
ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind S
to SW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10
mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to
3200 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 22 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 17 through 19, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.