SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, October 14, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
*********************************************************************
Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year, the forecast
office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on
weekends and state holidays).
There will be significant
changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts will be
issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and
Fridays unless updates are needed.
Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.
Please continue to call the
ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke
clearance through October. Beginning in
November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on
that to follow).
Thank you!
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Upper-level ridging will move over the
region with light winds aloft Thursday.
Skies will be clear and temperatures will climb above seasonable. Winds will turn to come from SE-SSE. Mixing heights will be good.
High clouds increase on Friday with
well above average temperatures. The
upper ridge will shift south with increasing SW flow aloft in Oregon. Winds will be from SE-S. Mixing heights will be good despite warm air aloft.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough will move north of
the region on Saturday. Showers will remain
mostly west with high clouds. Winds will turn to come onshore. Mixing heights will improve.
Mostly sunny skies on Sunday come with
an upper trough offshore and SW flow aloft.
Surface winds will be light and variable while transport winds will come
from SSW. Temperatures will be near or
above average. Mixing heights will be high.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SE to SSE at 10 - 22 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 12 - 22
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph. Surface
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, October 15 and 16, 2026.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through S
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the
ESE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through S of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the E
through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through
SSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.