SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday, October 24, 2016 2:35 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
An offshore upper-level tough is generating a strong SW flow aloft over Oregon. One frontal system is bringing cloudy skies and brisk SE-S winds to the region today. Scattered showers should develop this evening and continue through Tuesday morning. Showers should taper off Tuesday afternoon with lighter SE-S winds and good mixing.
A warm front will bring areas of light rain Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with mostly SE winds. Rainfall totals will be mostly near .10”. Warming aloft will suppress mixing. The warm front is expected to push north of the region Wednesday afternoon with mild temperatures, SE-S transport winds, and improving mixing heights.
A cold front will bring rain Wednesday night and Thursday. Rainfall totals should be near .25”. Transport winds will veer to S-SW with good daytime mixing. A warm front may bring another .10” to .25” of rain on Friday. Warming aloft will suppress daytime mixing with winds backing to the E-SE.
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 13 - 23 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 7 - 11 mph.
Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the west transport wind SSE to SSW at 15 - 29 mph. In the east transport wind SSE to S at 10 - 22 mph. Surface wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.
Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph. Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to
the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These
Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, October 25, 2016.
Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 4 p.m.
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before
8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.
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Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:
5. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.