SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, January 28, 2026 2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The southern edge of a warm front will bring cloudy skies
with areas of light rain or snow tonight through Thursday morning. Precipitation totals will be generally less
than .10”. Warming aloft will lift snow
levels to near 5000 feet, keeping daytime mixing suppressed. Light winds turn SE-SW with mild afternoon
temperatures.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A ridge brings dry and stable conditions Friday morning with
a weak weather system increasing clouds in the afternoon. There is a minor threat of precipitation by
evening. Surface temperatures will be
mild, but warm air aloft will keep mixing suppressed, with snow levels above
5000 feet. Expect mostly light SE-S
winds.
The upper-level ridge strengthens on Saturday with areas of
morning fog and frost giving way to afternoon sunshine and mild
temperatures. Expect strong morning
inversions and poor daytime mixing as snow levels climb to above 6000
feet. Light winds will be SE-S.
On Sunday, A little stronger weather system will bring increasing
clouds and some improvement in ventilation.
Transport winds will increase from the S-SW with mild surface
temperatures. Snow levels drop to near
5000 feet late with areas of light rain and snow likely.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1700 - 2700
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind SE
to S at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
1000 to 1800 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SE to S at 6 -
10 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8
mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
8 - 12 mph. Surface wind SE to SSW at 4
- 8 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday, January
29, 2026.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SE through SSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.