SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 30, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
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Information Regarding Smoke Management
Forecasts/Instructions:
Like last year,
the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m.
(closed on weekends and state holidays).
There will be
significant changes this season (details below):
Written forecasts
will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays,
and Fridays unless updates are needed.
Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.
The forecast phone
recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.
Please continue to
call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special
smoke clearance through October.
Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF
field office (details on that to follow).
Thank you!
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough centered just off the Oregon Coast will
maintain a cool, moist, and somewhat unstable SW flow aloft through Saturday,
resulting in mostly cloudy skies and a few showers. Daytime mixing will be excellent with SE-S
transport winds and near-average temperatures. Precipitation totals should mostly be under
.25” with snow levels at 5-6000 feet.
The upper-level trough moves onshore and across the state on
Sunday, maintaining scattered showers and relatively cool conditions. Precipitation totals will be mostly less than
.25” with showers tapering off late in the day.
Daytime mixing will be excellent with snow levels near 5000 feet. Transport winds switch to northwesterly.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A transitory upper-level ridge brings dry and much more
stable conditions on Monday. After a
frosty start, with areas of valley fog, expect mostly sunny skies and season
temperatures in the afternoon. Morning
inversions will give way to fair afternoon mixing with transport winds reverting
to SE-S.
Computer models show the development of a split-flow SW jet
stream pattern over Oregon on Tuesday, as a weak upper-level trough moves into
northern California. This pattern is indicative
of the strong El Niño that has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Areas
of morning fog/frost should give way to partly cloudy skies with seasonal
afternoon temperatures. Daytime mixing
will be fair with continued SE-S transport winds.
Dry weather persists until late Thursday, when a stronger
weather system comes ashore and traverses the state on Friday.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4500 - 5000
ft then lowers to 1200 - 2200 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to S at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. In the west transport wind W
to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during
the afternoon. In the east
transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW
at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to
4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 31 through November 2, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the SW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the ESE through SSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the E through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No
additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The
smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.