SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, March 4, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Flow aloft will come from NW on Thursday with an upper-level trough moving east and ridging to the west.  A few showers and some mountain snow linger with rainfall amounts under 0.20”.  Winds will be brisk from NW with below average temperatures.  Mixing heights will be excellent with freezing levels at 4-5000 feet for the afternoon.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Friday will have a few snow showers as freezing levels rise a little to near 5000 feet.  Flow aloft will come from N.  Mixing heights will lower some but stay good.  Lighter surface winds will come from NW with transport winds also from NW.  Temperatures will be seasonable.

 

Mostly dry weather is likely Saturday with N flow aloft and impacts from upper-level ridging.  Winds will be light and variable, somewhat from SW for transport winds.  Temperatures will climb above average and freezing levels will be over 6000 feet.  Mixing heights will decrease to fair to good.

 

Sunday will be dry with W flow aloft as upper-level ridging moves south.  Temperatures will be well above average and mixing heights will be good.  Winds will come from WSW-W.  Mostly dry weather lasts into early next week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, March 5, 2026.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.