SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 20, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

******************** Instruction Zones Update ***********************

The National Weather Service recently changed borders and numbering of their fire zones.  ODF will use the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with these updates.

A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Saturday’s showers could reach up to 0.25” totals but will likely to remain lower.  An upper-level low will be overhead and moving east of the region.  Freezing levels will decrease to near 5000 feet.  Winds will be more breezy from W-NW.  Temperatures will drop as much as 20° below seasonable.  Mixing heights will be excellent.

 

Showers last into early Sunday, followed by drier conditions.  Flow aloft will be light from N.  Temperatures will be warmer though still below average.  Light winds will come from NNW-NNE.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Monday starts a trend of dry weather and warming temperatures.  Flow aloft will be light with broad upper-level troughing south and weak ridging building across the region.  Near seasonable temperatures come with good mixing heights.  Surface winds will be light and variable.  Transport winds will be light from SSE-S and variable at times.

 

Dry weather continues Tuesday with temperatures rising above average.  Upper-level winds will be light from W.  Mixing heights will be good.  Light winds will be variable.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the west mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, June 21 through 23, 2025.

    ==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.