SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 15, 2018       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A high-amplitude upper-level ridge will maintain a dry and stable NNE flow aloft over Oregon through Tuesday.  The combination of a surface thermal trough, centered just off the coastline, and a cool dome of high pressure, centered over the Rockies, will produce light offshore transport winds, favoring NE-E.  Strong inversions will provide generally poor mixing, with marginal improvement in the afternoon hours.  Local drainage flows will dominate overnight periods.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Little change is expected through the week, with a strong upper-level ridge maintaining dry and very stable conditions.  Mixing will stay generally poor.  Offshore flow will weaken by Thursday but should strengthen again heading into the weekend. Overnight periods will be dominated by local drainage flows.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft during the morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, October 16, 2018.

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Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.