SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, October 23, 2026 3:15 PM Pete Parsons

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Information Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:

Like last year, the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).

There will be significant changes this season (details below):

Written forecasts will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.

Please continue to call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).

Thank you!

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Showers have ended and skies will clear from west to east across the region this evening. High pressure builds over the area this weekend for a return to sunny skies. Frosty starts, with areas of fog, will give way to sunny afternoons with maximum temperatures recovering to near average. After morning inversions, expect fair-to-good daytime mixing with SE winds on Saturday turning more S-SW on Sunday.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough is predicted to come ashore on Monday, with the main impact over southern Oregon and northern California. After a chilly morning, look for increasing clouds with a chance of showers by afternoon, mainly south. High temperatures will be near average with cooling aloft promoting good daytime mixing. Transport winds increase from the SE-SW.

A broad upper-level trough sets up camp over Oregon on Tuesday, bringing lots of clouds and possibly a few showers. Daytime temperatures will be below average with snow levels near 5000 feet. Expect good daytime mixing with brisk W-NW transport winds.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1700 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph. Surface wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, October 24 through 26, 2026.

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For Saturday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Sunday:

For Monday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.