SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
November 17, 2025
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from
November 15 through February 15.
Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is “Exempt Wood
Burning Device” or “No Burning Period.” Burning
is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and
limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within
nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
A split-flow
jet stream pattern continues through Tuesday, which should bring a break
between storm systems. Expect partly
sunny skies. A shower chance persists
over the eastern mountains. Snow levels
will hold near 5000 feet. Mild surface
temperatures and slight cooling aloft will marginally improve mixing with light
SW-NW winds.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Weak upper-level ridging should provide even more sunshine on
Wednesday, after areas of morning valley fog.
Despite above normal daytime temperatures, mixing will remain marginal
due to warm air aloft. Transport winds
will increase and markedly shift to SE.
Little change is expected on Thursday, as a continued
split-flow jet stream pattern directs the next Pacific storm south of the state. Expect areas of morning fog to give way to
mostly sunny skies and above-normal temperatures. Warm air aloft will continue to promote only
marginal daytime mixing with mostly SE transport winds.
An upper-level ridge strengthens over Oregon on Friday with
morning inversions yielding to fair afternoon mixing under mostly sunny skies. Warm air aloft will continue to suppress mixing,
despite mild afternoon temperatures.
Winds turn light.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 - 2600 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2300 - 3300
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SW
to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon
and evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2100 to
3100 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming E to SE at 6 - 10 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, November
18, 2025.
==================================================================
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through
NNE of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
in all directions of SSRAs. Verify
transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for
shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.