SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, December 31, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
******************** New Year’s Day Schedule ************************
The ODF forecast office will be closed on
New Year’s Day and reopen at 7 a.m. on January 2nd. This forecast includes burning instructions
through Friday, January 2nd (2 days).
For questions regarding prescribed
burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at
503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Friday, January 2nd.
Happy New Year!
*********************************************************************
**************** Air
Stagnation Advisory Information ****************
An Air Stagnation Advisory
may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest
information). Please use extra precautions
and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within
nearby SSRAs.
* Current Air Stagnation
Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An
upper-level ridge and its warm air aloft remain the dominant factors in keeping
stagnant conditions over the area for Thursday.
However, an offshore trough will push moisture into the area with light
rain and mountain snow becoming likely, mainly for the south and west
portions. Moisture will be less than
.10” while the snow level rises over 6000 feet.
Light precipitation continues overnight.
Mixing in the afternoon remains poor with SSE-SSW winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
On
Friday the ridge persists even as moisture streams into the area from the SW
and limited improvement will occur for burning potential. Areas of very light rain and mountain snow continue
while temperatures reach 10oF above seasonal levels. Mixing by the afternoon will be poor to fair
with mainly S winds.
An upper trough continues near the coast through
the weekend, causing more SW flow aloft and some showers, mainly in the
mountains. Temperatures of about 10oF
above normal will continue. Mixing conditions
will still be limited on Saturday but improves for Sunday. S
transport winds can be expected on both days.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft by late morning and throughout the afternoon.
Transport wind S
to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 16 - 30 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to SSW to SW at 13 - 25 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 6 - 12 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rising to 1300 - 2300 ft and through the evening.
Transport wind S
to SSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to
SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SE
to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
In the west
mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during
the afternoon. In the east mixing height
1200 to 2200 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 7 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to
3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 19 - 33
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 to 4100 ft by late morning rising to 3700 to
4700 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph. Surface
wind SE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, January 1 and 2, 2026.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance
matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WSW of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the
SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete
ignitions by 2:30 p.m. No additional restrictions
necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance
matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the
SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Complete
ignitions by 2:30 p.m. No additional restrictions
necessary.
For Friday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance
matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WSW of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.