SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, November 19, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A weakening upper-level trough will provide rain and mountain snow late tonight through Thursday evening.  Rainfall amounts will only reach near 0.05”.  Freezing levels will be down to 4-5000 feet early before rising as the system departs.  Temperatures will be near seasonable and mixing heights will improve.  Light surface winds will turn to come from WNW-NNW.  Transport winds are expected from NW-NNW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Friday will be dry with a few high clouds as upper-level ridging builds.  Mixing heights will lower as warm air moves in aloft.  Light surface winds will be from S-WSW and variable at times.  Transport winds will come from WSW.  Temperatures will rise above average.

 

Dry weather continues on Saturday with mid to high level clouds.  The upper-level ridge will support temperatures well above average.  Light surface winds from S will be variable at times.  Transport winds will come from SW.  Mixing heights will be fair.

 

Clouds increase gradually on Sunday but the weather stays dry.  Light surface winds will be from S-SSW while transport winds will come from SSW-SW.  Temperatures will climb well above seasonable.  Mixing heights will be suppressed.  Showers return for Monday.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2800 - 3800 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, November 20, 2025.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the W through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.