SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, November 26, 2025 2:30
PM Gary Votaw
****************** Thanksgiving
Weekend Schedule ********************
The ODF forecast office
will be closed from Thursday, November 27th through Sunday, November
30th. This forecast includes burning instructions through Sunday (4
days). Burning instructions for Monday, December 1st, will be issued
Sunday afternoon.
For questions regarding
prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at
503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. on Wednesday, November 26th or after 7 a.m. on
Monday, December 1st.
Happy Thanksgiving!
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level ridge will still dominate Thursday while a trough
approaches from the west. The trough
will be too late to improve burning conditions though winds turn SW and
increase. There may be some very light
rain in the north portion and snow above 6-7000 feet, and temperatures reach
5-10oF above average. Look for
poor to fair mixing in afternoon with increasing SW transport winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The upper trough arrives Thursday night then moves east late Friday,
causing much improved mixing conditions.
Rain potentially provides .10” to .25” of moisture before tapering
off during the day while snow levels will
be near 5000 feet. Very good mixing is expected
by afternoon with NW-NNW winds.
Flow aloft will be NW on Saturday, to cause partly sunny skies and
near seasonal temperatures. Mixing will
generally be good by the afternoon with SW transport winds.
An upper trough is expected to develop in the NW
flow for a chance of very light rain or snow, mainly Saturday night. The trough moves SE early Sunday, leaving
behind reinforced NW-N flow aloft and clearing skies. Mixing will be poor with light and variable
winds.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rising to 2200 - 3200 ft then lowering to 1000
to 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to SW to W at 13 - 25 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SW at 6 - 12
mph during the afternoon then shifts to SSW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the
evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rising to 1300 - 2300 ft then lowering to 1000
to 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind E
to ESE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.
Transport wind shifts to SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon
then increases to SSW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height 3000
to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 16 - 30 mph
during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during
the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to
S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday through
Sunday, November 27 through 30, 2025.
==================================================================
For Thursday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SSE through W of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
15 miles to the SSE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the E through WSW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
15 miles in all directions of SSRAs.
Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions
necessary.
For Friday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through N
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Saturday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SE through NW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
10 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Watch
for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in
all directions of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles in all directions of SSRAs. No
additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.