SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, February 13, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

************************ Holiday Schedule ***************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed on Monday, February 16th. This forecast includes burning instructions through Tuesday, February 17th.

For questions regarding prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Tuesday, February 17th.

*********************************************************************

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Chances for showers and mountain snow increase through the weekend and next week.  An upper-level ridge will shift away from the region with lessening impacts while a trough sits offshore with SW flow aloft for the region.  A few showers will have amounts under 0.10”, along with mountain snow.  Mixing heights will improve with snow levels at 4-5000 feet.  Winds will be from SE-SSW with seasonable temperatures.

 

Sunday will have a few showers but stay mostly dry.  Freezing levels will stay near 4-5000 feet and mixing heights will be good.  Winds are expected from S-SSW.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Showers and mountain snow increase through the day Monday.  Rainfall amounts could reach up to 0.10”.  Flow aloft will be from S with an upper-level trough offshore.  Winds will come from SSE-SSW.  Snow level decrease to near 4000 feet and mixing heights will be good.

 

Mountain snow and rain are likely on Monday with snow levels dropping under 3000 feet.  Winds will be from S-SW and temperatures sink below average.  Mixing heights will be excellent.  Rounds of rain and snow last through the week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SE to S at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Tuesday, February 14 through 17, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the ESE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Tuesday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.