SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
March 13, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Saturday will have showers early then
dry weather. The jet stream will dip
south into the region with strong NW flow aloft. Mixing heights will be good as freezing
levels drop under 4000 feet. Strong
winds will come from NW. Temperatures
will sink below average.
After a couple of showers, Sunday will
be mostly dry. Flow aloft will come from
NW as upper-level ridging builds.
Surface winds will become light and variable. Transport winds will be from W in central zones
and S-SW in northeastern zones. Temperatures
will be below or near seasonable. Mixing
heights will stay mostly good with warming air aloft.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Monday will have a few showers in
northeastern zones and stay dry elsewhere.
Flow aloft will come from NW with upper-level ridging. Winds will come from WSW-W in central zones
and light from SSW-SW in northeastern zones.
Temperatures will climb well above average. Mixing heights will lower some.
Dry weather continues
on Tuesday. The upper-level ridge
will shift inland and flow aloft will come from
W. Mixing heights will be fair with
well-above average surface temperatures.
Winds will come from SW-WSW, light in northeastern zones.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to
WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to NW to N at 6 - 10
mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 10
- 22 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 6 -
10 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to
3800 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind light and variable.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to
3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, March 14 through 16, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles
to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in
all directions of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30
miles in all directions of SSRAs. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the SSW through WNW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the S through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.