SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
March 19, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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A substantial degrade in
the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will
cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast
line. Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline
in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A strong upper-level ridge
still dominates the region through Friday, causing partly sunny, very warm and dry
weather, about 20oF above normal. A cold front will
arrive Friday evening. Good mixing
conditions prevail with mainly SW winds trending NW after the front passes.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper trough follows
the front for Saturday. A few very light
showers will dot the landscape but otherwise the area will be mostly cloudy,
dry and much cooler. Temperatures will
be near seasonal levels. Look for good burning
conditions with NW transport winds.
Westerly flow
aloft will provide a mostly sunny Sunday and again Monday with temperatures returning
a little above seasonal. Burning
conditions will generally be good with light and variable winds Sunday becoming
lightly NW on Monday afternoon.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during
the afternoon then lowers to 1000 - 1600 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning.
Transport increases to SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon
then shifts to NW to NNW and decreases to 10 - 20 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the
afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.
Transport increases to SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon
then shifts to NW to NNW and decreases to 8 - 14 mph during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 6 -
12 mph during the afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at
10 - 22 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at
5 - 9 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 4400 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable. Surface wind
light and variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Friday, March 20,
2026.
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Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW
through NNW of SSRAs. For units that
will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25
miles to the SSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 11 a.m. Follow
standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all
directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting
transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.