SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 15, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A cold upper-level
trough passes by on Saturday to cause a chilly day and showers, possibly around
.10” with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Temperatures are likely to be around 15°F
below average as snow levels hover around 4500 feet. Burning opportunities are excellent with W-NW
winds.
The trough slides eastward on Sunday for NW flow aloft over
Oregon. A few showers remain and skies become partly sunny. Temperatures
remain about 15°F below average but the snow level climbs to 5500 feet late. Mixing conditions are still excellent with
NW-N winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
NW flow
continues Monday and Tuesday, but a building offshore ridge will inject warmer
air into the flow. Partly to mostly
sunny skies allow a warming trend to reach near seasonal levels by Tuesday. Mixing heights rise throughout each day with
very light W-NW transport winds on Monday then a little stronger on Tuesday from
NW.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day. Mixing
height lowers to 3600 - 4600 ft during the evening.
Transport wind W
to WNW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to
WNW to NW at 22 - 38 mph during the evening.
Surface wind W to
NW at 10 - 16 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height 3500
to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to NNW at 12 - 22 mph. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 7 - 11 mph during
the morning becoming NNW to N at 15 - 25 mph during
the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 16 through 18, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the W
through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NNE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Care needed in selecting units as smoke will
likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No additional
restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.