SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Tuesday,
December 16, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Rain and mountain
snow arrive on Wednesday with freezing levels under 4000 feet. Rainfall amounts could reach 0.25” with
strong onshore flow aloft. Mixing
heights will be excellent with temperatures near or above average. Surface winds will be brisk from W while
strong transport winds will come from W-WNW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Freezing levels will
rise higher on Thursday with continued rainfall and strong onshore flow
aloft. Temperatures will climb well
above seasonable. Mixing heights will be
suppressed with less burning close to SSRAs.
Surface winds will be from SSE-SSW and strong transport winds will come
from S-SW.
A cold front will
lower freezing levels again for Friday, reaching under 4000 feet. Rain and mountain snow are likely. Mixing heights will improve and temperatures
will be above average. Winds will come
from WSW-W with strong transport winds.
Saturday turns
mostly dry with onshore but weaker winds aloft.
Warmer air aloft will decrease mixing heights. Light surface winds will be from S-SSW. Transport winds are expected from
SSW-SW. Temperatures will be near or
above average. Showers increase again
for Sunday.
2. DISPERSION
WEDNESDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3700 - 4700
ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 22 - 38 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to SW to W and
decreases to 9 - 15 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to W at 9 - 15 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW and
decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 800 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3700 - 4700
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 26 - 46 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 8 -
12 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 9 - 15 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to SW to W and decreases
to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8
mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 20 -
36 mph during the afternoon. Surface
wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to
3300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Wednesday,
December 17, 2025.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SSE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
SE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.