SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, June 24, 2017 2:35 PM Pete Parsons

 

********************** Important Scheduling Note ********************

This will be the final written forecast for the spring 2017 season.

The ODF smoke forecast office will resume Monday Friday operations, beginning 6-25-17. For additional smoke guidance or clearance, call us at 503-945-7401, between the hours of 7 a.m. and 5 p.m.

*********************************************************************1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge is producing stable, sunny, and warm weather today. Warm aloft is suppressing daytime mixing. A building coastal surface thermal trough is resulting in a general NE low-level wind pattern. Inversions are likely to form quickly this evening, allowing local drainage winds to dominate overnight.

The upper-level ridge axis will move over eastern Oregon on Sunday. Continued warming aloft will further suppress daytime mixing. Surface temperatures will climb to about 15-20 degrees above average with light transport winds generally veering to the SE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge will progress east of the state Sunday night with increasing SW flow aloft introducing enough moisture and instability for possible thundershower development through Monday. Increasing onshore transport winds, from west to east, will usher cooler marine air across the region Monday afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday, a more stable WNW flow aloft should end the shower threat. Strong onshore transport winds will drop surface temperatures back to near average. Cool air aloft will make for good daytime mixing, but brisk NW winds may cause smoke to fumigate.

2. DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2700 - 3700 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning. Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, June 25 and 26, 2017.

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For Sunday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.

 

For Monday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSW through NW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling before

8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.