SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 3, 2016       2:35 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

Rain and snow will become widespread early Sunday as another weakening cold front passes through the area. Snow levels will be 3500 to 4500 feet early but lower close to 1000 feet by late in the day. Winds on Sunday will tend to mainly WSW early to NW late as the front passes.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An upper trough moving onshore on Monday will give more chances of light snow to the region on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be mainly SW on Monday and shift to NW-N by Tuesday. The next significant storm with possible wind and snow is expected to arrive early on Thursday, continuing on Friday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3800 - 4800 ft and rises to 3900 - 4900 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to W at 15 - 29 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft and rises to 3800 - 4800 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind increases to W to WNW at 20 - 36 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 4 and 5, 2016.

    ==================================================================

 

For Sunday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through NW of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the S through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the S through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.