SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

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Resumption of Written Prescribed-Burning Forecasts/Instructions

The ODF Smoke Management Forecast Office has resumed prescribed-burning forecasts/instructions for the 2026-27 season!

There will be significant changes this season (details below):

Written forecasts will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays unless updates are needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.

Please continue to call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance through October. Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).

Thank you!

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A weak ridge is over the region with W flow aloft. Sunny skies on Thursday push temperatures to about 10^oF above seasonal. It also raises mixing heights nicely in the afternoon with very light winds, favoring SW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Little change is expected Friday or Saturday with W flow aloft. Sunny weather continues the warming trend for the remainder of the week, temperatures around 15^oF above normal. Mixing will be good on both afternoons, winds very light and favoring NW-N on Friday then SSW by Saturday.

The ridge continues Sunday. Sunny skies will cause the warmest day, around 20^oF above seasonal. Mixing heights will be slower to rise but become good in the afternoon with light and variable winds.

2. DISPERSION

THURSDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NNE to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3700 - 4700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 4300 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3700 to 4700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Thursday and Friday, October 1 and 2, 2026.

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For Thursday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Friday:

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.