SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 29, 2014       2:35 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646


SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will stabilize overnight, as warmer air aloft moves in behind an upper level ridge. This will reduce mixing on Thursday, with lighter surface winds as a ridge develops. The atmosphere will be able to dry out Thursday afternoon, as the ridge slowly moves east towards Idaho.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper level trough will deepen slightly as it moves onshore Friday. The atmosphere will become less stable, as a weakened surface cold front moves across western zones Friday morning. Mixing will improve as a result, with onshore winds increasing. Showers will be scattered across the western zones Friday afternoon.

Overnight Friday, colder air aloft will spill into northeast Oregon ahead of an upper level ridge. This will drop the freezing level to 4,000ft in western zones and provide great mixing conditions. The spotty rainfall in western zones will taper off as an upper level ridge builds in over the Cascades Saturday morning. The upper level ridge will slowly transit across eastern Oregon for the rest of the weekend. This stable atmosphere will see restricted mixing heights with light winds throughout Sunday.


2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height lowers to 1300 - 2300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SSE to S at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Surface wind E to SE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to SE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4000 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 11 - 23 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 7 - 11 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 12 - 24 mph.  Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 30, 2014.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SE through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SE through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the E through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the E through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml