SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, May 17, 2022       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

*********************** Scheduling Note ****************************

 

The ODF forecast office has resumed daily Northeast Oregon forecasts and will add Sunday service as necessary.  Operations (7 a.m. until 5 p.m.) will continue for the duration of the spring burning season (office is closed on Saturdays).  Written forecasts will be issued each afternoon with burning instructions for the following day.  Friday’s forecasts will have burning instructions for the weekends.

 

If you have any questions, please call us at 503-945-7401.

 

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough will arrive from the west on Wednesday and will cause mostly cloudy skies and a few snow showers on the highest peaks, snow level 8-9000 ft.  Mixing heights will be high with W transport winds becoming stronger west of Prairie City in the afternoon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The cold upper trough will remain over the area Thursday to keep skies mostly cloudy and with areas of showers, snow level only 3500 - 4500 ft but with less than .10” of moisture.  Mixing heights will again be high with WNW to NW transport winds.

Cold NW flow aloft will be over the area for Friday and Saturday.  Partly sunny and cool conditions will persist, temperatures 5-10oF below normals, and there will be a chance of showers each day.  Mixing heights will rise nicely through both days, and while winds in the morning will be very light transport winds will be N to NW in the afternoons.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to W at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 22 - 40 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to WNW at 14 - 28 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 4300 - 5000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 3500 - 4500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to W to WNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon then increases to W to WNW at 16 - 30 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 3500 to 4500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 12 - 22 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, May 18, 2022.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles to the SW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NW of SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.