SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
March 6, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by
Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to
return calls to the forecast line.
Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Upper-level ridging will be offshore
on Saturday with N flow aloft. A few
showers early will turn into dry weather with temperatures rising well above
average. Mixing heights will stay good
but lower some with warm air aloft. Winds will come from W-NW.
The upper-level ridge flattens out for
Sunday with a strong jet stream north of Oregon and W flow. Temperatures continue well above average with
W winds. Mixing heights will be good
with dry weather.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The jet stream nudges south on Monday but the weather stays mostly dry with strong W flow
aloft. Winds will be from W but temperatures will sink below average. Freezing levels will drop to 4-5000 feet and lower. Mixing heights will be good.
A few showers are possible Tuesday with
the jet stream weakening some and shifting north. Freezing levels will drop under 4000
feet. Winds will come from W with below seasonable
temperatures. Mixing heights will be
good.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 800 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 2400 - 3400
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Transport wind increases to W to NW at 5 - 9
mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 to 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to
3500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph. Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the
morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 22
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3300 to 4300 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, March 7 through 9, 2026.
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For Saturday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the WSW through NW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the WSW through NW of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
30 miles to the WSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles
to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.