SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 20, 2014       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A slow-moving cold front will bring increasing clouds later this afternoon and evening with continued SE-S winds providing good ventilation.  The cold front should bring areas of light rain to the region tonight.

An upper-level trough will maintain shower activity through Tuesday morning with a transitory ridge bringing drying and clearing Tuesday afternoon.  The air aloft will stay cool enough for good mixing with transport winds veering to the west and NW.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A potent cold front is forecast to bring increasing clouds and SE-S winds on Wednesday.  Rain will likely spread back across the region Wednesday night.  Strong WSW flow aloft will maintain showers through Thursday, with transport winds turning more westerly.  Another weather system may bring more rain and wind to the region by Friday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW and increases to 10 - 20 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon then shifts to SSE to SSW and increases to 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon then increases to SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2800 to 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 18 - 30 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 9 - 19 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 4500 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 20 - 34 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, October 21, 2014.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the SSE through WNW of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml