SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, June 17, 2024       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Weak NW flow aloft will be over the region Tuesday while a trough exits to the east.  A shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly in the eastern mountains.  Skies otherwise will be mostly sunny with still cool temperatures persisting, 5-10oF below seasonal averages.  The trough will help mixing heights to be excellent though winds will be very light, favoring SE-S.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A very weak trough will be over the region for Wednesday and Thursday.  It will help keep mixing heights excellent and skies remain mostly sunny.  The sun will encourage a warming trend and push temperatures above seasonal by Thursday.  Mixing heights will be low in the early mornings but rising well through the later mornings through the afternoons.  Transport winds will be SE-S but become light and variable by Thursday afternoon.

 

Weak W flow aloft is expected for Friday causing sunny and warm conditions, temperatures possibly 10oF above seasonal.  Low early mixing heights will improve through the day with light W-NW winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Low early morning mixing height below 1000 ft rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to N to ENE at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain through the day.  Surface wind increases to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Low early morning mixing height below 1000 ft rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.

 

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, June 18, 2024.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.