SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, October 5, 2026       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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   Information Regarding Smoke Management Forecasts/Instructions:

 

Like last year, the forecast office will be staffed Monday – Friday from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. (closed on weekends and state holidays).

There will be significant changes this season (details below):

 

Written forecasts will be issued in the afternoons (like before) but only on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays unless updates are needed.  Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days.

The forecast phone recording at 503-945-7400 has been discontinued.

 

Please continue to call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401 with questions or for special smoke clearance through October.  Beginning in November, those calls should be made to your local ODF field office (details on that to follow).

 

Thank you!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A weak ridge with W flow aloft dominates the area with sunny and very warm conditions.  Temperatures will be 15-20oF above seasonal levels.  Mixing heights on Tuesday will be slow to rise in the morning but reach high in the afternoon before falling again close to sunset.  Winds will be very light S-SW until favoring NW by evening.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Little change occurs through Friday though a cold trough will cause much colder conditions for the weekend.  Skies remain sunny with daytime temperatures 15-20oF above normal.  Mixing heights on Wednesday through Friday will be quite low through the mornings, becoming good in the afternoons.  Afternoon winds will be very light and range from S to W until turning W-NW on Friday afternoon.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 - 2600 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4400 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to N to NE at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3300 - 4300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday and Wednesday, October 6 and 7, 2026.

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For Tuesday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Wednesday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.