SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 18, 2020       2:35 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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*        COVID-19 Fall/Winter Updated Prescribed Burning Restrictions           *

*                                                                               *

*A new plan has been put in place by the Governor. It is based on risk level:   *

*Extreme, High, Moderate, and Lower Risk.                                       *

*                                                                               *

*A map of the risk levels is located at: https://public.tableau.com/profile/    *

*Oregon.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/Risk  *

*                                                                               *

*Since most of the state is in High or Extreme Risk, the instruction is now     *

*defaulted to legacy rules (prior to March 1, 2019). Exceptions to the rule     *

*can be made if burning in Moderate or Lower risk counties. Call the forecaster.*

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************************** End of Season ****************************

This is the last written weather forecast and set of prescribed-burning instructions for winter season. We plan to resume issuing written forecasts/instructions, when prescribed burning picks up in the spring but may resume them sooner, if there is enough demand.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

There will be a chance of rain or snow on Saturday under mostly cloudy skies.  Snow levels will be around 5000 ft west and 3500 ft east.  Low mixing heights in the morning will rise to 5000 ft in the west with S to SW transport winds.  But mixing in the east will remain 2000 ft or lower, especially for valleys east of the Blue Mountains, where transport winds will be very light and variable.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Rain and mountain snow will become widespread on Saturday night and Sunday as a Pacific storm passes through, with 0.25 to 0.50 of rain being common in valleys and 1.00 possible in mountains.  The snow level will rise over 7000 ft throughout the area by late Sunday.  Mixing levels on Sunday will rise above 5000 ft with S to SW winds for good burning opportunities but mixing in valleys east of the Blue Mountains will still struggle to reach 2000 ft with light and variable winds.  A ridge will temporarily dry the area on Monday and burning potential becomes better throughout the region with mixing climbing above 5000 ft and SW to W winds.  Tuesday will see showers ending as the upper trough moves into the Rockies.  Mixing will still be very good with mainly NW winds.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft during the morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon then decreases to S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind increases to S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning and afternoon.  Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon, except S at 5 10 zones 645 and 646.  Transport wind decreases to SSE to SW at 6 - 12 mph during the evening.  Mixing height in zones 645 and 646 remain below 1000 ft all day.

 

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph except S at 4 8 mph zones 645 and 646.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1200 to 2200 ft during the afternoon, except below 1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Transport and surface winds east of the Blue Mountains will be light from the S.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon, except below 1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 22 - 40 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Transport and surface winds east of the Blue Mountains will be light from the S.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 4500 to 5000 ft throughout the day, except still under 1000 ft in valleys east of the Blue Mountains.  Transport wind NW to NNW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Transport winds east of the Blue Mountains will be SE at 7 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 19 and 20, 2020.

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For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the S through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 230 p.m. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 230 p.m. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 230 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.