SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, March 13, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Saturday will have showers early then dry weather.  The jet stream will dip south into the region with strong NW flow aloft.  Mixing heights will be good as freezing levels drop under 4000 feet.  Strong winds will come from NW.  Temperatures will sink below average.

 

After a couple of showers, Sunday will be mostly dry.  Flow aloft will come from NW as upper-level ridging builds.  Surface winds will become light and variable.  Transport winds will be from W in central zones and S-SW in northeastern zones.  Temperatures will be below or near seasonable.  Mixing heights will stay mostly good with warming air aloft.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Monday will have a few showers in northeastern zones and stay dry elsewhere.  Flow aloft will come from NW with upper-level ridging.  Winds will come from WSW-W in central zones and light from SSW-SW in northeastern zones.  Temperatures will climb well above average.  Mixing heights will lower some.

 

Dry weather continues on Tuesday.  The upper-level ridge will shift inland and flow aloft will come from W.  Mixing heights will be fair with well-above average surface temperatures.  Winds will come from SW-WSW, light in northeastern zones. 

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, March 14 through 16, 2026.

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For Saturday:

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Delay ignitions until 11 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through WNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the S through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.