SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, November 6, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:

Written forecasts will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).

With the pace and scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the public.

Please call your local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for use primarily by ODF districts.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge moves east on Saturday and turns the wind aloft SW late. Mostly sunny skies push temperatures to around 15^oF above seasonal levels. Potential mixing in the afternoon is only fair while winds are SE-S, becoming windy at times overnight.

A trough passes north of the state on Sunday and turns the wind W. A mainly dry cold front passes across the region for mostly cloudy skies but only a slight chance of a mountain snow shower above 6500 feet. Temperatures return close to normal. Mixing improves a little with W-NW winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Another trough arrives Monday for a chance of showers, less than .05”, snow above 7000 feet as a warming trend returns. Mixing potential is fair to moderate by the afternoon with very light S winds trending WSW-NW.

A substantial ridge is expected by Tuesday causing partly sunny skies and temperatures 10-15^oF above normal, which is likely to continue through mid-week. Mixing in the afternoon will only be fair with light and variable winds.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1700 - 2700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSE to S at 12 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Surface wind ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 1700 - 2700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 20 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

Surface wind ESE to SE at 9 - 15 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

In the west mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon. In the east mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 21 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2700 to 3700 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, November 7 through 9, 2026.

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For Saturday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through WNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Sunday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNE of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Monday:

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/

909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.