SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
May 12, 2025
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
******************** Instruction Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service recently changed borders
and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the previous zone
boundaries for smoke management and not change with these updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast zones is at the bottom
of the instructions in the Special Notes section. (https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Tuesday will have
fewer showers than Monday with totals barely to 0.05”. An isolated chance of thunderstorms continue for the afternoon but mostly for northeastern
zones. An upper-level trough will be
east of the state with N flow aloft.
Winds will come from WNW-NW and temperatures will drop below
average. Mixing heights will be good
with freezing levels near 5000 feet.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Wednesday will be
mostly dry with some risk of isolated showers.
A weaker trough will move through with NNW flow aloft. Mixing heights stay good though a little
lower. Winds will be from W-NW. Temperatures stay below seasonable.
Dry weather is
expected Thursday other than in far northeastern zones. Flow aloft will be light from NW with flat
upper-level ridging. Mixing heights will
be excellent with seasonable temperatures.
Winds will be from WNW-NW, lighter in the northeast.
Friday will be
the last dry day for most, other than a few showers in the northeast, before a
system arrives overnight into
Saturday with rain. Flow aloft will be
from NW with broad upper-level ridging, followed by a weak trough late. Light winds will be from WSW-WNW. Temperatures stay seasonable. Mixing heights will be good though decreased.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft then
lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind W to
NW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon and evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 to 4500 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. In the west transport wind W
to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph during
the afternoon. In the east
transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming W to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface
wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 3300 to
4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface
wind light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 13,
2025.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WNW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles
to the W through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.