SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, November 14, 2025       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15.  Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is “Exempt Wood Burning Device” or “No Burning Period.”  Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A few showers are likely far north on Saturday but most will be dry with partly sunny skies.  Mixing heights will be suppressed with warmer air aloft.  Broad upper-level ridging will have light flow.  Winds will be light from SSE-S.  Temperatures will climb well-above average.

 

Showers increase with a system moving SE of the state and an upper-level trough shifting toward the coast.  Rainfall amounts will range from 0.05-0.25”.  Light surface winds will be variable in direction.  Transport winds are expected from SSE-SW.  Temperatures will be above seasonable and mixing heights will be fair to good.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

A few showers continue early Monday with amounts under 0.05”.  Flow aloft will be from S as the upper-level trough moves inland.  Winds will come from S-SW, light at the surface.  Temperatures will be near average.  Mixing heights improve.

 

Tuesday will be dry with partly sunny skies.  Flow aloft will come from SW.  Light surface winds will be from S-SW while transport winds will come from SSW.  Mixing heights will be mostly good with seasonable temperatures.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1600 - 2600 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising to 4500 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, November 15 through 17, 2025.

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For Saturday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.