SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, January 7, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
A few snow showers last into Thursday. Flow aloft will be strong from NW with an
upper-level trough moving east and ridging will build offshore. Freezing levels will stay under 3000 feet and
mixing heights will be high. Winds will
be from W-NW with strong transport winds.
Temperatures will be below seasonable.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Friday will be mostly dry after a few snow showers early. Light
flow aloft will be from NW with upper-level ridging. Temperatures will rise to near or above
average. Freezing levels will climb to
near 4000 feet. Light winds will turn to come from S-SW.
Mixing heights will start to lower with warmer air aloft.
Saturday continues a dry pattern that
will last well into next week under the influence of upper-level ridging. Surface winds will be light from SSE and transport
winds will come from S. Temperatures
will be above average. Freezing levels
will further rise to near 5-6000 feet. Mixing
heights will be suppressed.
The dry weather and stable conditions continue on Sunday under upper-level ridging. Mixing heights will be fair to poor with
strong morning inversions. Light surface
winds will be from SSE-S. Transport
winds will come from S.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 15 - 29 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 10 -
22 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.
Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the
afternoon and decreases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.
Surface wind W to
NW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
In the west
mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during
the afternoon. In the east mixing height
1300 to 2300 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 7 mph.
Surface wind light and variable.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
4 - 8 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 -
8 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at
4 - 8 mph. Surface wind ESE to S at 4 -
8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Thursday, January
8, 2026.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through NW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the W
through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.