SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, January 13, 2025 2:30 PM Pete Parsons

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory may be in effect for your area (consult the link below for the latest information). Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs.

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15. Prescribed burning is not allowed on Red woodstove days in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15. Burning is allowed inside of SPZs on green and yellow woodstove days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A building upper-level ridge of high pressure will clear skies and bring locally stagnant conditions tonight and Tuesday. Widespread areas of valley fog will form this evening and persist into Tuesday afternoon for many locations. Temperatures will be near average with poor daytime mixing and light winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge strengthens on Wednesday with continued dry and stagnant conditions. Temperatures will remain near average with strong morning inversions yielding to poor afternoon mixing. Winds should turn mostly light SE.

The ridge flattens Thursday afternoon in response to a weather system approaching from SW Cananda. Areas of morning fog should yield to increasing high clouds, but daytime mixing will remain poor. Look for transport winds to shift from SE to SW-W later in the day, especially across the western zones. A few snow showers are possible by Thursday night in the NE zones.

A cold NW flow aloft prevails on Friday, with a chance of snow showers across the eastern zones. Cooling aloft may break inversions and significantly improve mixing, especially east. Temperatures remain near average with increasing NW-N winds.

2. DISPERSION

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning. Afternoon mixing height rising to 1000 - 1600 ft then lowering below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph. Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Tuesday, January 14, 2025.

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Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.