SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, February 9, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Tuesday will be dry with mid to high level clouds.  An upper-level trough will be offshore with light SSW flow aloft.  After spotty fog and morning inversions, mixing heights will be good with freezing levels near 4000 feet  Winds will come from ESE-SE.  Temperatures will be near seasonable.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The upper-level trough moves inland on Wednesday.  Most mountain snow showers will stay south of the region.  Winds will be light and variable.  Freezing levels increase some to 4-5000 feet and mixing heights will be fair.

 

Thursday turns dry as upper-level troughing moves east and ridging moves inland.  Light surface winds will be from SW-W and transport winds will come from W-WNW.  Mixing heights will be fair to good.

 

Friday stays dry ahead of a more unsettled weekend.  Flow aloft will begin to increase from WSW.  Surface winds will be from S-SW and lighter in northeastern zones.  Transport winds will come from SSW-SW.  Mixing heights will be good.  Mountain snow will increase over the weekend.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2300 - 3300 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to ESE to SSE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then decreases to E to SE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through SSE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the NNE through SSE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through SSE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ENE through SSE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3:30 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.