SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, April 19, 2014       2:45 PM      Doug Wesley

 

**************** Easter Weekend Contact Information *****************

The ODF Weather Office will not be staffed on Sunday April 20. Contact (971) 239-9807 for direct forecast support on Sunday if needed. ********************************************************************

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638

 

A new upper wave brushing central OR as it passes through WA is impacting the area today. Increasing W flow aloft, increased moisture, and a surface cold front moving in are the primary weather drivers.  Rain showers are possible across most areas for the afternoon. Mixing should be generally very good with increasing SW-W transport winds and gusty surface winds. Transport wind directions are likely shifting as the front moves through.

After this wave passes, new upper troughing will begin to develop again well west of OR on Sunday with SW-W flow aloft and decreased but mostly moderate afternoon mixing. Afternoon transport winds will likely be much weaker and some low-elevation areas will see only local low-level winds well into the daytime hours.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Moisture onset with the next system appears likely on Monday afternoon, as troughing offshore deepens significantly, begins to move onshore, and deep S-SW flow strengthens over the region. Precipitation is possibly for the afternoon and later as the new warm front approaches. It appears likely that SW transport and mixed depths should be healthy on Monday afternoon.

The current forecast for Tuesday is for unsettled, cooler conditions with widespread precipitation and general W-NW low-level winds with good mixed depths. Snow will be likely at higher elevations. For Wednesday, at this point model guidance is pointing towards a general drying trend late, but continued cool, mostly cloudy condition with healthy mixed depths and W transport winds.

 

  

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 630 and 632:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 633 - 638:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SE to S at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.  Surface wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

In the west mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the east mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 7 - 13 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2800 to 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, April 20 and 21, 2014.

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For Sunday:

 

Zone 630 and 632:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 15 miles to the ENE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ENE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely flow down drainages and into low-lying areas overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

For Monday:

 

Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the SSE through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml