SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 23, 2017       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons

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The final Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Spring/Summer 2017 will be issued on Saturday, June 24th 2017. Additional support will be available by telephone from the on-duty meteorologist at (503) 945-7401 Mon-Fri, 7am to 5pm.
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A building upper-level ridge will keep skies clear through Saturday.  Warming aloft will suppress daytime mixing with light N-NE winds.  Surface temperatures will climb to about 10 degrees above average.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge will move directly over eastern Oregon on Sunday.  Continued warming aloft will further suppress daytime mixing.   Surface temperatures will climb to about 15 degrees above average, with light transport winds veering to SE.

The upper-level ridge will progress east of the state by Monday with increasing SW flow aloft introducing enough moisture and instability for possible thundershower development.  Increasing onshore transport winds will usher cooler marine air, from west to east, across the region in the afternoon.

On Tuesday, a more stable westerly flow aloft should end the shower threat.  Strong onshore transport winds will drop surface temperatures back to near average.  Cooling aloft will improve mixing, but brisk low-level winds may cause smoke to fumigate.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2500 - 3500 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1700 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 3000 - 4000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the afternoon then increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, June 24, 2017.

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Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NW through ENE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 11 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NW through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

5.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.