SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, June 18, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

************************ Holiday Schedule ***************************

The ODF forecast office will be closed on Friday, June 19th. This forecast includes burning instructions through Monday, June 22nd.

For questions regarding prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at 503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. today or after 7 a.m. on Monday, June 22nd.

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                      We Need Your Feedback!

The Smoke Management Department is planning to “upgrade” this product so that it more effectively meets your needs.  To assist us with this project, we are requesting feedback from you!

Below are a few questions to help you consider what changes would be most beneficial for you.  All ideas are welcome!

Is the “Short-Term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

Is the “Long-term Discussion” useful?  What would enhance it?

How could the “Dispersion” forecast better meet your needs?

Is the “Outlook” useful?  What would enhance it?

Are the “Burning Instructions” clear and concise?  How could they be improved for your use?

How do you access the forecast product (i.e., Email; web page; telephone recording)?

We are considering discontinuing or upgrading the phone recording of the forecast product.  Is that something you currently use?  Would you use it if you could get your specific forecast from it faster?

Please Email your feedback to: Peter.GJ.Parsons@odf.oregon.gov

Thank you!

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Ridging weakens on Friday with an upper-level disturbance cutting across southern Oregon and northern California.  Some clouds will push across the region, and a late-day thunderstorm is possible south.  A surface thermal trough will move from central Oregon to near the Idaho border with temperatures reaching 10-15°F above average.  Mixing will be good with SW-NW winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough pushes east of the state on Saturday with a drier and more stable NW flow aloft clearing skies.  Brisk W-NW winds will cap temperatures near 5°F above average with good mixing.

An upper-level ridge builds just offshore on Sunday with a continued dry and stable NW flow aloft keeping skies clear. Mixing will be good with slightly above-average temperatures and NW winds.

A weak upper-level ridge progresses inland on Monday, bringing sunny skies with surface temperatures climbing to about 10°F above average. Winds turn N-NE with good daytime mixing.

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and increases to 10 - 18 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon and evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind N to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Friday through Monday, June 19 through 22, 2026.

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For Friday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Saturday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through NNW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the WSW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Sunday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

For Monday:

 

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the N through NE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.