SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
January 2, 2026
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough
is near the coast and causing SW flow aloft, and little change occurs through the
weekend. For both Saturday and Sunday, light showers
will provide around .10” or less of moisture.
The snow level near 6000 feet will lower to 5000 feet on Sunday as surface
temperatures hover around 10oF above seasonal levels. Burning conditions will generally be very good
with SSE-SSW winds.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
The trough remains near the coast on Monday while weakening. Light showers continue,
less than .10” while the snow level falls to 4000 feet. Mixing will again be very good with S-SW
winds.
Flow aloft becomes W on Tuesday.
A few showers continue under still mostly cloudy skies. Mixing conditions continue very good while in
SW-W winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during
the morning. Mixing height rises above
5000 ft during the afternoon and evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 24 - 42 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 26
- 46 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 10 - 22 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft during the morning. Mixing height rises to 4200 - 5000 ft during
the afternoon then rises above 5000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind increases to SSE to S at 22 -
38 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at
22 - 40 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 14 - 24 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind S to SSW at 9 -
21 mph during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the
afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at
10 - 22 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at
8 - 12 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at
16 - 30 mph. Surface wind SSW to WSW at
9 - 15 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, January 3 through 5, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through
SSW of SSRAs. Care needed in selecting
units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through
SSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 5 miles
to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through WNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the S
through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Watch for shifting transport winds. No
additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through
WSW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 10 miles
to the SSW through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.