SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, March 10, 2026       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

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A substantial degrade in the forecast products used by Oregon Department of Forestry meteorologists will cause longer wait-times to return calls to the forecast line.  Forecasts and instructions may be delayed due to the decline in data.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

A strong jet stream just to the north of the region will keep a few showers around on Wednesday.  Winds will be brisk from S-SW at the surface and strong from SW-WSW for transport winds.  Mixing heights will be good despite freezing levels rising to 5-6000 feet.  Temperatures will climb to seasonable. 

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with a few showers and a strong jet north.  Winds will be from SW-WSW at the surface and WSW for transport winds.  Temperatures will reach above average.  Mixing heights will lower but stay mostly good.

 

Friday will have dry weather during the daytime as the jet moves south some.  Surface winds will be from SW-WSW.  Transport winds are expected from WSW, stronger in central zones.  Mixing heights will be good with above seasonable temperatures.

 

A few showers are expected Saturday as the jet stream shifts and upper-level ridging builds.  Winds will turn to come from NW with seasonable temperatures.  Mixing heights will be fair to good.  Dry weather lasts into early next week.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Transport increases to SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon then shifts to SSE to SSW and decreases to 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, March 11, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSW through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.