SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, January 28, 2026       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The southern edge of a warm front will bring cloudy skies with areas of light rain or snow tonight through Thursday morning.  Precipitation totals will be generally less than .10”.  Warming aloft will lift snow levels to near 5000 feet, keeping daytime mixing suppressed.  Light winds turn SE-SW with mild afternoon temperatures.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A ridge brings dry and stable conditions Friday morning with a weak weather system increasing clouds in the afternoon.  There is a minor threat of precipitation by evening.  Surface temperatures will be mild, but warm air aloft will keep mixing suppressed, with snow levels above 5000 feet.  Expect mostly light SE-S winds.

The upper-level ridge strengthens on Saturday with areas of morning fog and frost giving way to afternoon sunshine and mild temperatures.  Expect strong morning inversions and poor daytime mixing as snow levels climb to above 6000 feet.  Light winds will be SE-S.

On Sunday, A little stronger weather system will bring increasing clouds and some improvement in ventilation.  Transport winds will increase from the S-SW with mild surface temperatures.  Snow levels drop to near 5000 feet late with areas of light rain and snow likely.

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1700 - 2700 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph throughout the day.

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph throughout the day.

 

Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 1800 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

    - Valid for burning done Thursday, January 29, 2026.

    ==================================================================

 

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 30 miles to the ESE through SSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

    are available at:

    https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling

    between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/neo.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.