SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 1, 2026
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge that has been bringing dry and relatively
warm weather weakens slightly and shifts eastward, to over Idaho, on Saturday. An upper-level trough approaching the coast will
increase the S-SW flow aloft, bringing more clouds. A surface thermal trough should remain over central
Oregon or progress slightly eastward. Expect
mostly cloudy skies, continued above-average temperatures, and mostly SE winds. Daytime mixing should remain good.
On Sunday, an upper-level low drops southward along the
California Coast, transporting more moisture and instability northward over
Oregon. There is a risk of a late-day
shower or thundershower, mainly over the mountains. Daytime temperatures will be
about 10-15°F above average. Light SE winds
become variable and possibly northerly in the afternoon with continued good mixing.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
An upper-level trough comes ashore over southern California
on Monday with a drier and more stable NE flow aloft bringing clearing. Temperatures warm to about 15°F above average
with increasing northerly winds and continued good daytime mixing.
A building upper-level ridge brings a dry and warmer N-NE
flow aloft on Tuesday. Expect sunshine
with temperatures about 15°F above average. Daytime mixing remains good with
mostly northerly winds.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SE
to S at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind E to
SE at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
light and variable. Surface wind light
and variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind
NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind
NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, May 2 through 4, 2026.
==================================================================
For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the ESE through S
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
ESE through S in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the N through SE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
NNW through SE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NNW through NE
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
NNW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.