SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, November 14, 2019 2:30 PM Pete Parsons

 

**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information ****************

An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for some SW Oregon valleys until noon PST Tuesday, November 19th (link below for details).

* Please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A broad upper-level ridge will weaken just enough to allow a minor weather system to push some light rain onto the coast overnight and then across mainly the western interior zones on Friday. Rainfall totals should be mostly .10 to .25 north and around .10 or less south, with the greatest amounts along the coast. Only spotty showers are expected to penetrate into central Oregon. Minor cooling aloft will bring some improvement to daytime mixing, mainly north, with mostly SW transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge will strengthen again on Saturday. Areas of morning fog should give way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Mixing will be poor with light, mostly SE-S, winds.

The ridge will flatten slightly on Sunday, bringing more clouds to the northern zones along with a risk of light rain near the Washington border. Mixing is unlikely to improve significantly, but transport winds should turn weakly onshore.

The ridge is expected to rebuild over the region on Monday, with poor mixing and light S-SW transport winds, ahead of a stronger weather system that should bring more-widespread light rain and better mixing on Tuesday.

2. DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601-612 and 639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

- Valid for burning done Friday, November 15, 2019.

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Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S - call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning

5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind SSRAs.

 

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of piles in

a unit will allow a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing

instruction tonnage for that zone.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.