SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
March 6, 2014 2:30 PM Doug Wesley
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
A continued rainy
and windy pattern characterizes western OR today, with high-elevation snow.
On Friday, a
quieter, drier and more stable pattern sets in, but with afternoon mixing
levels continued healthy for most areas, as the solar insolation
continues to steadily increase this time of year. Transport winds however will
be decreasing into the weak category.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
For the weekend, expect the next Pacific trough and frontal
system to begin increasing moisture and S-SW winds during the afternoon on
Saturday and rainy/windy conditions dominating from then through Sunday with
snow confined to the highest elevations. Afternoon mixing levels will likely be
healthy both days.
Trough passage is expected Sunday night, and on Monday
current guidance is depicting a cooler, unsettled pattern with good ventilation
most or all of the day.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1500 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface
wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface
wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 605-611
(North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface
wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SSE
to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height lowers
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors W and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to
2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft
during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during
the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to SSW at 5
- 9 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing
height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph. Surface wind S to SW at 6 -
10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to
3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to
WNW at 8 - 14 mph. Surface
wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, March 7, 2014.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 615, 618,
619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA. South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500
tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible. Call the forecaster.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.