SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, December 21, 2017       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

 

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***The ODF Smoke Management Office will issue the final written forecast and instructions for 2017 on Thursday, December 21st to cover prescribed burning operations planned for Friday, December 22nd. Any controlled burning planned for the upcoming holiday weekend will need to be verbally coordinated no later than 5:00 p.m. on Friday, December 22nd in order to receive clearance for ignitions. The ODF Smoke Management Office will be closed on Monday, December 25th to observe the Christmas Day holiday, and will re-open on Tuesday, December 26th at 7:00 a.m.***
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Upper level ridge has nosed into the state following yesterday’s cold front passage. Air mass is stable and will remain so through tomorrow. A modified arctic front will slide down from the north tomorrow but stall near the Oregon/Washington border. Some light precipitation of rain or snow could fall over the very northern sections of the state. In addition, mixing and dispersion will be a little better over the north. Wind flow will remain light with generally an S to SW flow. Overall air quality and weather conditions will not be conducive to much burning.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level ridge will build over the state on Saturday keeping the air mass very stable with limited dispersion. A weak disturbance will move through the ridge on Sunday providing a little moisture but only a little improvement in mixing and dispersion. Ridge rebuilds on Christmas day.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SSE to SSW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 2000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SSE to SSW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SSW to WSW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S to WSW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, December 22, 2017.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.