SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
November 14, 2019 2:30 PM Pete Parsons
**************** Air Stagnation Advisory Information
****************
An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for
some SW Oregon valleys until noon PST Tuesday, November 19th (link below for
details).
* Please use extra precautions and limit
forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby
SSRAs. *
* Current Air Stagnation Advisories: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/. *
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A broad upper-level ridge will weaken just enough to allow a
minor weather system to push some light rain onto the coast overnight and then
across mainly the western interior zones on Friday. Rainfall totals should be mostly .10” to .25”
north and around .10” or less south, with the greatest amounts along the coast.
Only spotty showers are expected to penetrate into central Oregon. Minor cooling aloft will bring some
improvement to daytime mixing, mainly north, with mostly SW transport winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge will strengthen again on
Saturday. Areas of morning fog should
give way to partly sunny skies in the afternoon. Mixing will be poor with light, mostly SE-S,
winds.
The ridge will flatten slightly on Sunday, bringing more
clouds to the northern zones along with a risk of light rain near the
Washington border. Mixing is unlikely to improve significantly, but transport
winds should turn weakly onshore.
The ridge is expected to rebuild over the region on Monday,
with poor mixing and light S-SW transport winds, ahead of a stronger weather
system that should bring more-widespread light rain and better mixing on
Tuesday.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601-612 and
639 (North Coast Range and Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 2000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SW
to W at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2000
- 3000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1600 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during
the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to
1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during
the morning becoming WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to
1900 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Friday, November 15, 2019.
=================================================================
Coast Range
***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
***Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 622
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix -
see section 5 below.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning.
Please do not call individual's numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45
p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning
5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of piles in
a unit will allow
a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing
instruction
tonnage for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.