SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS…CORRECTED

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 17, 2016       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

***THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED FORECAST FOR THE FALL BURNING SEASON***

 

***FOR ANY BURNING PLEASE CALL THE FORECAST LINE (503-945-7401). FORECAST INSTRUCTIONS WILL PICK UP NEXT SPRING, OR SOONER IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WINTER TIME BURNING. OFFICE HOURS WILL BE 700 AM TO 500 PM ON MONDAY-FRIDAY***

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

A ridge will hold on to keep the area dry on Sunday, and partly sunny. Due to warm air beginning to arrive aloft mixing will still be poor to fair while transport winds continue light and variable.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Monday will finally be warmer with valley rain and mountain snow in the north, but only a chance of it in the south. Snow levels will rise to 6000 feet during the afternoon. Mixing will be improving during the day with S-SW winds. Valley rain and mountain snow will spread throughout western Oregon on Tuesday. Mixing will continue to improve, becoming excellent on Tuesday with winds turning W then NW in the afternoon. Under a ridge, Wednesday will be dry with poor mixing again. Another storm system will arrive on Thursday, then drying out under a ridge on Friday and Saturday.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height near 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind E to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

TUESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning lowering to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 14 - 24 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 14 - 24 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 18 and 19, 2016.

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For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 639, 610, 611, 620, and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.