SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, June 8, 2015       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

************** Important Schedule and Product Update ***************

Spring prescribed burning appears to be mostly completed, so this will be the final issuance of the smoke management forecast until burning picks up again in the fall.

Please call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401, Monday - Friday from 7:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., if you have smoke-related questions or need smoke clearance.

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SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure is directly over Oregon this afternoon.  A surface thermal trough extends from north-central to SW Oregon with NW-NE winds.  Very weak onshore flow is keeping the immediate coastal strip cool, with areas of low clouds, otherwise skies are sunny with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  Some record highs are likely again today.  Even with very warm surface temperatures, warm air aloft is suppressing mixing.

A weak SW flow aloft may bring enough mid-level moisture and instability into southern Oregon for isolated thundershowers later today and tonight.  Local drainage winds should become more dominate overnight, but watch for erratic winds near thundershowers.

The upper-level ridge is expected to shift eastward, to over the Rockies, on Tuesday with increasing SW flow aloft over Oregon.  That will force the surface thermal trough into eastern Oregon with increasing onshore flow bringing slight cooling to the interior zones.  Warm air aloft will continue to suppress mixing, even with mostly sunny skies and well above average temperatures.  Transport winds will back slightly to the NW-N.  Increasing moisture and instability should result in scattered afternoon thundershower development across the southern zones.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

A weak and dry upper-level trough will slide across southern British Columbia on Wednesday with the flow aloft turning more westerly over Oregon.  Strengthening onshore flow will continue the cooling trend and may force some coastal marine clouds into the western valleys. Drier mid-level winds should decrease the thundershower threat across the southern zones with cooling aloft improving mixing.  Expect mostly NW transport winds.

A flat upper-level ridge will rebuild offshore on Thursday with a dry NW flow aloft producing sunny skies, except for areas of morning low clouds along the coast and possibly the NW valleys.  Temperatures should stay about 10-15 degrees above average with transport winds veering to more northerly.

A stronger but dry upper-level trough is predicted to sweep across southern British Columbia on Friday, which will turn the flow aloft westerly and initiate a significant “marine push” in the afternoon.  A mostly dry WSW flow aloft should provide more seasonal temperatures over the weekend with continued onshore flow.  Some thundershower development is possible across mainly the southern zones.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, June 9, 2015.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.