SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED:
Wednesday, June 18, 2025 2:30
PM Gary Votaw
************************ Scheduling
Update **************************
The ODF forecast office will be
closed Thursday, June 19th for Juneteenth (state
holiday). This forecast includes burning instructions for Thursday
and Friday, June 19th and 20th (2 days).
For questions regarding
prescribed burning planned for this period, please call the forecast office at
503-945-7401 prior to 5 p.m. on Wednesday, June 18th or after 7 a.m. on Friday,
June 20th.
*******************************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Flow
aloft is SW on Thursday south of a large upper low near the Canadian
coast. Skies will be partly to mostly
sunny but otherwise dry and cool, 5-10oF below normal. Good mixing potential is expected in
afternoon with light transport winds and mostly NW.
Friday will be much
cooler as that Canadian low moves over the Pacific Northwest, temperatures 15-20oF
below seasonal levels. Showers typically
provide .10” to .25” of moisture while a possible thunderstorm may cause higher
amounts. Snow levels will be 5-6000 feet. Cold air aloft ensures very good mixing with
SW-W transport winds.
The
upper low will slowly move eastward on Saturday but holds on long enough to cause
widespread showers. Temperatures will still
be 15-20oF below normal and snow levels still at 5-6000 ft. Moisture will likely be .25” to .75” except
.10” or less for the far south. Mixing conditions
will be excellent with W transport winds.
By Sunday weakening N flow aloft will be overhead and in the
wake of the upper trough moving across the Rocky Mountains. There is still a chance of a light shower,
but skies turn partly to mostly sunny, warmer but temperatures slightly below
normal. Mixing will be very good with N
transport winds.
2. DISPERSION
THURSDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height rising
to 3600 - 4600 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3600 - 4600 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind WNW
to NW at 8 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height rising
to 2800 - 3800 ft.
Transport wind W
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind WSW
to WNW at 8 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height rising
to 2800 - 3800 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NE at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2600 - 3600 ft.
Transport wind
increases to WNW to NW at 8 - 16 mph.
Surface wind WNW
to NW at 9 - 15 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height rising
to 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4300 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
3300 - 4300 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 8 -
12 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
SATURDAY
Mixing height
above 5000 ft throughout the day.
Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 16 mph. Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
3200 to 4200 ft during the morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Thursday and
Friday, June 19 and 20, 2025.
=================================================================
For Thursday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less. Restrict units to 500 tons
or less south of T30S in Zone 616.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Limit burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T15S through T20S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart.
Zone 610 and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 6 miles apart, and 8 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
For Friday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 west of R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 750
tons or less. Higher tonnage is possible
south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Limit burning in or near corridors.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 620
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.