SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, March 5, 2015 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins

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Persistent atmospheric conditions will provide good pile burning opportunities across southern zones for Friday and throughout the weekend. Broadcast and understory burning is possible, but lighter windspeeds will limit horizontal dispersion.

The current stretch of dry and mild weather has prompted an increase in wintertime burning requests, so we have decided to resume issuing daily written forecasts/instructions until wet weather returns.

The forecast office is open from 7:00 a.m. until 5:00 p.m. Monday Friday. Please call the ODF forecaster, at 503-945-7401, if you need additional information or further smoke clearance.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere is stable and will continue to stabilize overnight as the upper-level ridge slowly begins to rebuild offshore Oregon Friday morning. A surface ridge will slowly move north-northeast into Washington, providing another day of light winds and restricted mixing conditions over coastal Oregon, with slight improvement near the Cascades. Clear skies will promote rapid cooling after sunset Friday, forming inversions and fog formation in river valleys.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weekend will see progressive deterioration of mixing conditions, as the upper-level ridge slowly comes onshore Saturday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across western Oregon, as another surface ridge forms in Willamette Valley. The airmass will continue to dry out, as clear skies allow maximum heating during the day on Saturday. A thermal trough will influence southern zones as it approaches from California, promoting better mixing with light offshore winds. Sunday will see the wider development of offshore flow, as the surface ridge begins to strengthen. Stable weather persists overnight into Monday, with morning inversions at their strongest so far, and foggy conditions near major rivers and the far southwestern Oregon coast. The influence of the upper-level ridge as it passes over the Cascades Monday morning will limit the amount of improvement in mixing heights in northern zones, with southern zones continuing to show afternoon instability due to the thermal troughs close proximity.

2. DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to S to SW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors NE to E and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday and Saturday, March 6 and 7, 2015.

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For Friday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 617

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 616, 617, and 623

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 620, and 622

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.