SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday, December 22, 2014 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins
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This will be the final smoke management
instruction for 2014, and is valid for Tuesday, December 23rd and
Wednesday, December 24th. ODF Smoke Management will be closed on December 25th
and December 26th and will re-open on Monday, December 29th,
2014.
For smoke management guidance and burning
clearance, call the forecaster Mondays through Fridays 7:30am-5:00pm. The smoke
management instruction will resume when burning operations increase in Spring 2015 or sooner as required.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The atmosphere will
remains stable overnight and throughout Tuesday, as the upper level ridge
builds in strength over the Oregon coast. The surface ridges will be enhanced
by warming air aloft, shifting into the Cascades before mid-day. Winds will
start out light & variable, influenced primarily by terrain, but shift to
onshore flow Tuesday afternoon. Mixing conditions will start out poor, with
little to no improvement in the afternoon hours. Onshore flow will persist
after dark, as the upper level ridge passes east of the Cascades and an upper
level trough approaches from the Gulf of Alaska.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Christmas Eve is
primed to be a favorable burning day before the holiday weekend. The atmosphere
will become unstable as an upper level trough approaches early Wednesday,
following the jet stream southeast across Oregon. It will form a surface
frontal system, with the warm front extending across northern zones before
sunrise. Winds will shift to onshore flow by mid-day, with mixing improving
ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Rain showers will sweep across western
Oregon Wednesday afternoon and taper off after sunset.
By Thursday morning,
another upper level ridge will begin to build offshore from the Pacific
Northwest, stabilizing the atmosphere rapidly. Surface ridges will form by
sunrise near the Oregon coast, creating steady onshore flow that will weaken as
the ridges move onshore Christmas Day. Mixing conditions will start out good,
maintained due to the advancing high pressure Thursday afternoon. Mixing
heights will deteriorate rapidly after sunset, however, as inversions quickly
develop. The upper level ridge will continue to build overnight, slowing its
approach towards North America. This will strengthen the surface ridges and
cause them become trapped on the western side of the Cascades Friday morning.
Winds will become light & variable, influenced primarily by local terrain.
Mixing conditions will remain poor all day under very stable conditions, and
the atmosphere will progressively dry out through Friday evening.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SW
to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind SSW to
WSW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
WSW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
shifts to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind NW
to N at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.
Transport wind similar
to afternoon.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind W
to NW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1000 - 1700 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar
to afternoon.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to
3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early
rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to
1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during
the morning becoming NW to NNW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
4200 to 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during
the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during
the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, December
23 and 24, 2014.
=================================================================
For Tuesday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 612,
and 616 east of R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles
apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T35S. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610 and 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
No burning
allowed.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
For Wednesday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 615, 618, and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid ignitions
before 10 a.m. in all zones. Complete
ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 611, 620, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610 and 617
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 622
Units should be 1000
tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind
SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.