SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Sunday,
April 22, 2018 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
An
upper-level ridge builds over western Oregon, stabilizing the atmosphere on
Monday. Clear skies will allow rapid heating, breaking the inversion before
noon and creating offshore flow. Mixing and ventilation will be favorable for prescribed
burning, but will diminish as a new inversion forms before sunset.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
The
weather pattern experiences little change over the next several days, as the
upper-level ridge becomes locked in place over Oregon. Offshore flow will persist
with temperatures climbing well above seasonal averages, and the Snow Line will
continue to rise and promote snowmelt in the mountains. Inversions will form
quickly under clear skies at night, but strong morning sunlight will help
promote mixing during the late morning & afternoon hours for prescribed
burning activities.
2. DISPERSION
MONDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind NE
to E at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind NE to
E at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
increases to NE to ENE at 15 - 29 mph.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
ENE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1500 ft early rising to 3100 - 4100 ft by late morning.
Transport wind E
to ESE at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
3400 - 4400 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
increases to E to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport wind NE
to E at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind NE
to E at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors NE to E and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.
Transport wind E
to ESE at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 6 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind E
to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to E to ESE at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during
the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, April 23, 2018.
=================================================================
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616, 617,
and 623
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind
SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.