SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Tuesday, January 7, 2020       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

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***This will be the final written Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Winter 2020. Beginning with prescribed burning activities scheduled on or after Thursday, January 9th 2020, all prescribed burning activities will need to receive verbal approval prior to ignitions from the on-duty meteorologist here in the ODF Smoke Management Office. We are available Monday to Friday, from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m. and we will resume producing a written Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions when the season changes and conditions support beginning the Spring 2020 Prescribed Burning Season.
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere remains very unstable on Wednesday, as an upper-level disturbance drives in a winter gale with widespread coastal/valley rains and mountain snow for the Cascades. The Snow Level will lower to nearly 3,000 feet above sea level. Prescribed burning conditions will be favorable in many areas through Wednesday afternoon ahead of the Cold Front.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The atmosphere continues to produce active weather on Thursday, with a weak frontal system pushing through in the morning hours. This will produce scattered rain showers across western Oregon, with N-NW onshore flow that will be favorable for prescribed burning in many areas. Marine clouds will sweep into Oregon overnight and remain in place for much of Friday, with onshore flow surging in the afternoon ahead of a developing winter storm; this will favor prescribed burning at higher elevations where mixing will be better developed. The weekend weather pattern will continue to see cool, unstable weather across the Pacific Northwest, with a storm system moving in on Sunday that will draw in very cold, arctic air from Canada. This could create some isolated areas of freezing rain in the north Cascades Sunday evening before transitioning to light snowfall across many of the northern zones.

2.  DISPERSION

 

WEDNESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1200 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to W at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 14 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors S to SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1200 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1900 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1200 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 - 2200 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1200 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

THURSDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height 2900 to 3900 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 14 - 24 mph during the afternoon. In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 16 - 30 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 36 - 56 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2300 to 3300 ft by late morning rising to 4100 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to W at 16 - 30 mph during the morning becoming WSW to W at 36 - 56 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

    - Valid for burning done Wednesday, January 8, 2020.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below.  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below. Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if burning

    within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons per mile if burning

    5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind SSRA.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of piles in

    a unit will allow a 50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing

    instruction tonnage for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.