SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 1, 2014       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A building upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska is bringing a dry and stable northwesterly flow aloft to Oregon.   Some residual cloudiness remains over the NW zones today with sunny skies across the southern zones and east of the Cascade crest.  Skies should clear this evening, as the air mass continues to stabilize, with areas of low clouds and fog likely forming overnight across the NW zones.

Relatively cold overnight temperatures will lead to surface-based inversions Thursday morning.  However, sunny skies will warm afternoon temperatures to around average with improved mixing.  Light morning drainage winds should turn generally north to NE in the afternoon.  Watch for rapidly lowering mixing heights Thursday evening with local drainage winds favoring a NE-E direction across the northern zones and E-SE direction across the southern zones by early Friday morning.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Dry weather will continue through at least early next week, as a strong upper-level ridge of high pressure moves over the region.  The dry air mass and clear skies will promote large diurnal temperature variations with a slow warming trend.  Overnight inversions will strengthen, as the air aloft continue to sink and warm.  The sun angle should still be high enough to improve mixing somewhat each afternoon.  Mostly light winds will be dominated by drainage flows from the evenings through the mornings, then favor a NW-NE direction in the afternoons.

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind NNE to NE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

Instructions are valid for burning done on Thursday, October 2, 2014.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616 and 623

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.  South of T36S in Zone 623, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 617

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.