SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, June 24, 2017 2:30 PM Pete Parsons

 

********************** Important Scheduling Note ********************

This will be the final written forecast for the spring 2017 season.

The ODF smoke forecast office will resume Monday Friday operations, beginning 6-25-17. For additional smoke guidance or clearance, call us at 503-945-7401, between the hours of 7 a.m. and 5 p.m.

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A strong upper-level ridge is producing stable, sunny, and hot weather statewide today. A surface thermal trough is along the coast, and offshore flow will enable some locations, west of the Cascades, to set new daily record high temperatures this afternoon.

The upper-level ridge will progress to over eastern Oregon by Sunday afternoon. Very warm air aloft will continue to suppress daytime mixing. A surface thermal trough will move over western Oregon Sunday morning and into central Oregon Sunday afternoon. Coastal winds will turn onshore, from south to north, with an associated dramatic cool-down. Onshore flow will penetrate across the western interior late in the day but too late to bring much cooling. Central Oregon will see light offshore flow with near-record high temperatures.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level ridge will progress east of the state Sunday night, with increasing SW flow aloft introducing enough moisture and instability for possible thundershower development, mainly south, through Monday. Cooler air aloft will improve daytime mixing. The surface thermal trough will advance into Idaho with onshore transport winds pushing significantly cooler air across the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday, a more stable WNW flow aloft should end the shower threat. Strong onshore flow will drop temperatures back to near average and force considerable morning marine clouds into the western valleys. Cool air aloft will make for good daytime mixing.

2. DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, June 25 and 26, 2017.

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For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning in or near corridors. Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.