SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Sunday, May 24, 2015       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

************** Important Schedule and Product Updates **************

The ODF weather office will be closed on Monday, May 25th to observe Memorial Day.  This forecast includes instructions for both Monday, May 25th and Tuesday, May 26th.  The weather office will resume 7-days-a-week operations on Tuesday, May 26th.  A forecaster is available from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m., for additional smoke consultation or clearance, at 503-945-7401.

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SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A “split-flow” pattern in the upper-atmosphere is continuing over western North America, with the main branches of jet stream directed well north and south of the Pacific Northwest.  The general trough that was over the region much of last week has progressed east, to over the Rockies, with a weak NNW flow aloft stabilizing and drying the mid-levels of the air mass over Oregon.

Strong onshore flow has pushed a thick layer of marine low clouds over western Oregon this morning, which is holding temperatures below average.  The low clouds are beginning to break up this afternoon and will continue to slowly through this evening.  Skies are mostly sunny east of the Cascade crest, helping temperatures recover to slightly above average.  A weak upper-level trough, dropping southward from southern British Columbia, will provide just enough instability for a few convective clouds to pop up over central Oregon later today, but no precipitation is expected.

Little change is expected Monday and Tuesday.  A weak upper-level trough will maintain a dry and cool NW flow aloft over the region.  Strong onshore flow will keep a thick marine cloud-cover over much of western Oregon, with areas of morning drizzle north, and afternoon clearing.  Partly cloudy skies are expected east of the Cascade crest.  Mixing will be good with mostly NW winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The upper-level trough will move eastward, into the northern Rockies, Wednesday and Thursday.  A weak upper-level ridge will bring some warming and drying aloft over Oregon.  Onshore flow will weaken with marine low clouds giving way sooner each day to sunshine west of the Cascades.  Mostly sunny and warmer conditions are expected across central Oregon.  Warming aloft will suppress mixing with transport winds staying mostly northwesterly.

2.  DISPERSION

 

MONDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2800 to 3800 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday and Tuesday, May 25 and 26, 2015.

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For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Tuesday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.