SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
October 24, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
************************* Scheduling
Note ***************************
Daily written
forecasts/instructions have resumed! The ODF forecast office will be
staffed Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. – 5 p.m. Forecasts will be
issued on those afternoons and will include instructions for the following day. The
office will be closed on weekends and on
holidays. Friday’s forecasts will include instructions for Saturday
through Monday (through Tuesday, if Monday is a holiday).
As always, please call the
forecast office at 503-945-7401, if you need additional help or have
questions about smoke clearance.
*********************************************************************
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather
Service recently changed borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF
will use the previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with
these updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke
forecast zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes
section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
The strongest part of the
upper-level trough will arrive across West Oregon early on Saturday, causing continuing
showers and possible thunderstorms. It will
also cause windy conditions and otherwise excellent mixing. The snow level will lower to around 4500 feet
in afternoon as temperatures hover 5-10oF below seasonal. Additional moisture in mountains during the
day will typically be .50” to as much as 1.00”.
Winds will be strong and mostly SW.
Still another trough
arrives on Sunday to cause showers to persist but not as windy. Additional moisture for Saturday night and
Sunday may be another .50” to 1.00”. The
snow level in the afternoon ranges from 4000 feet north to 5500 feet south. Mixing heights will be excellent throughout
the day with SW-W transport winds.
A
weak ridge develops over the area by Monday but with moist flow
continuing. Showers will be lighter and
fewer in number with a snow level rising to 5-7000 feet. Only fair mixing is expected, and winds turn
lightly SE-S.
The ridge remains on Tuesday,
but a trough passes mainly north of the state causing showers to linger across
the north half of the region. Temperatures
finally climb back to near seasonal levels.
Mixing becomes moderate to good in the afternoon with SW transport winds
trending more W during afternoon.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 26 - 46 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to SW at 12 - 20 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 24 - 42 mph.
Surface wind SW
to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW at 25 - 45 mph.
Surface wind SW
to W at 10 - 18 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 24 - 42 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 12 - 20 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 27 - 47 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to SW at 14 - 24 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
WSW at 24 - 42 mph.
Surface wind
decreases to SSW to WSW at 12 - 20 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 25 - 45 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to SW at 12 - 22 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind SW
to WSW at 14 - 24 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SW
to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 20 - 36 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SW
at 22 - 40 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SW to WSW at 14 - 24 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to SW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind
decreases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 15 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. In the Cascades mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft
during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph
during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the
morning becoming SSW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning and through the
afternoon. Transport wind SE to S at 8 -
12 mph. Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8
mph.
TUESDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning
rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.
In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft
by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph
during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the
morning becoming SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, October 25 through 27, 2025.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Sunday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Avoid ignitions north of T24S
in Zone 616.
Zone 611
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 3 miles apart, and 5 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Monday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616 - call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
400 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
and 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
620, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 611, 617,
and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.