SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
March 5, 2015 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins
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Persistent atmospheric conditions will
provide good pile burning opportunities across southern zones for Friday and
throughout the weekend. Broadcast and understory burning is possible, but
lighter windspeeds will limit horizontal dispersion.
The current stretch of dry and mild weather
has prompted an increase in wintertime burning requests, so we have decided to
resume issuing daily written forecasts/instructions until wet weather returns.
The forecast office is open from 7:00 a.m.
until 5:00 p.m. Monday – Friday. Please call the ODF forecaster, at
503-945-7401, if you need additional information or further smoke clearance.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
The atmosphere is
stable and will continue to stabilize overnight as the upper-level ridge slowly
begins to rebuild offshore Oregon Friday morning. A surface ridge will slowly
move north-northeast into Washington, providing another day of light winds and
restricted mixing conditions over coastal Oregon, with slight improvement near
the Cascades. Clear skies will promote rapid cooling after sunset Friday,
forming inversions and fog formation in river valleys.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The weekend will see
progressive deterioration of mixing conditions, as the upper-level ridge slowly
comes onshore Saturday morning. Light and variable winds will persist across
western Oregon, as another surface ridge forms in Willamette Valley. The airmass will continue to dry out, as clear skies allow
maximum heating during the day on Saturday. A thermal trough will influence
southern zones as it approaches from California, promoting better mixing with
light offshore winds. Sunday will see the wider development of offshore flow,
as the surface ridge begins to strengthen. Stable weather persists overnight
into Monday, with morning inversions at their strongest so far, and foggy
conditions near major rivers and the far southwestern Oregon coast. The
influence of the upper-level ridge as it passes over the Cascades Monday
morning will limit the amount of improvement in mixing heights in northern
zones, with southern zones continuing to show afternoon instability due to the
thermal trough’s close proximity.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SE
to S at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind E to
SE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising
to 1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to S to SW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors NE to E and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind ESE
to SSE at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors SE and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind WSW
to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
shifts to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to
2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph
during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1500 to
2500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW
at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday and Saturday, March 6
and 7, 2015.
=================================================================
For Friday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
No burning
allowed. North of T3N in Zone 602, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15
miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615, 616,
618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605 and 606
No burning
allowed.
Zone 607, 608,
639, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. From T18S through T22S in
Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.
Zone 610 and 611
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible. Call the forecaster.
Zone 617
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
No burning
allowed.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Saturday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 3 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606, 616,
617, and 623
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
and 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
620, and 622
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.