SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
June 15, 2018 1:25 PM Pete Parsons
******************* Final Forecast of the Season
********************
This is the final written forecast of the
2018 spring burning season. Please call
the ODF forecast office, at 503-945-7401, for smoke clearance or questions, until
written forecasts resume this autumn.
Summer staffing will be Monday – Friday, from
7 a.m. until 5 p.m. The office will be
closed on July 4th and September 3rd (holidays).
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A weak disturbance will drop southward tonight, from British
Columbia, and reinforce the mostly-dry upper-level trough over Oregon. Enhanced
onshore flow will force considerable marine clouds across the western zones by
Saturday morning, along with a chance of light showers.
The upper-level trough will stall over northern California
and southern Oregon this weekend. The
air aloft will stay cool enough to keep temperatures moderate and provide some
instability. Although initially moisture-starved,
the upper-level trough will likely entrain enough mid-level moisture to
generate a few showers and thundershowers over the southern and eastern
zones. Transport winds will be generally
NW-NE with good daytime mixing.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The trough is predicted to slowly drift across northern
Nevada on Monday and lift into SE Idaho by Tuesday. That will promote a drier and more stable
N-NE flow aloft over Oregon. More
sunshine and warming aloft will help temperatures climb to 10-15 degrees above
average but with a continued risk of a shower over the southern mountains
Through Monday. Transport winds will
remain NW-NE. Afternoon mixing should be
good over the eastern zones, but warming aloft may begin to suppress mixing
over the coast range.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
All Zones:
MORNING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind NNW
to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind N
to NE at 10 - 20 mph. Surface wind N to
NE at 8 - 12 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N
at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5
- 9 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE
at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4
- 8 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, June 16 and 17, 2018.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport
in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602, 603,
and 616 west of R8W
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of Forest
Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone
602. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615, 618,
and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of
T30S.
Zone 620
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue
River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
620, and 622
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606. Call the forecaster.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
611, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617
units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.
Zone 616
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less,
spaced 5 miles apart.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
For Sunday:
Coast Range
All Zones
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Cascades
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in
Zone 606. Call the forecaster.
Zone 607, 608,
and 616
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 617 and 623
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart. South
of T36S in Zone 623, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email
list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.