SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 23, 2017       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

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The final Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Spring/Summer 2017 will be issued on Saturday, June 24th 2017. Additional support will be available by telephone from the on-duty meteorologist at (503) 945-7401 Mon-Fri, 7am to 5pm.
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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge will move across western Oregon on Saturday, maintaining a stable weather pattern. A thermal trough will form in the Willamette Valley, increasing N-NE transport winds in the afternoon. Mixing conditions will develop slowly through the day, but rapidly diminish as inversions form by nightfall under clear skies.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern will begin to transition on Sunday, as the upper-level ridge shifts east of the Cascades. The thermal trough shifts into central Oregon in the late afternoon. This will turn transport winds more N-NW in the Willamette Valley, with mixing conditions once again crashing as inversions develop before sunset. An upper-level trough approaches Oregon from the southwest on Monday, destabilizing the atmosphere. W-NW onshore flow brings in cooler air to promote mixing conditions Monday afternoon. A second upper-level trough sweeps down from the Canadian coast overnight. Onshore flow will increase winds as a dry Cold Front moves across western Oregon, producing isolated mountain showers that will track into central Oregon Tuesday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to E at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind ENE to E at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NNE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft by sunset.

Transport wind NE to E at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind shifts to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NNW to N and increases to 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1900 to 2900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, June 24, 2017.

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Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, and 612

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610 and 611.***

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 617 and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.