SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Sunday,
May 19, 2013 2:30 PM Jim Little
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
Look
for a brief dry spell on Monday before a very cold (for this time of year)
upper low moves over the region. This
low is likely to remain over the Pacific Northwest through Friday night.
MONDAY
Minor
ridging aloft on Monday will give dry weather to the area and temperatures
should be a bit above average for mid May.
Expect temperatures near average at the coast but 3 to 6 degrees above
average inland. Skies will be mostly
sunny. Transport winds will range from
north-northwest to north-northeast most areas.
Smoke dispersal conditions will be moderate to fair at the coast and
good over the Cascades.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
The
upper low drops into the region and will meander over the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday. The exact location of the
center of the low is difficult to pinpoint but it is broad enough to affect the
entire area. Rain will reach the north
coast shortly after midnight and by 10am will cover virtually all of western
Oregon. Cool air with the low will
tumble temperatures with highs at valley locations likely 8-12 degrees below
average. The snow level will drop to
about 3000 feet in the north and 4000 feet in the south by early evening. Transport winds will become northwesterly
while smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly moderate to fair.
Wednesday
the low remains over the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures continue to drop with highs only in the 50’s at many valley
locations. Snow will fall as low as 3000
feet in the mountains. Expect showery
weather in the north, more steady precipitation to the south. Transport winds will initially be mostly from
the west to west-northwest, then gradually become southwest to south during the
day. Smoke dispersal conditions will be
good in the north, moderate in the south.
Expect
little change in the upper air pattern on Thursday with the cool upper low
dominating. Showers continue in the
north with mostly cloudy skies in the Rogue Valley. Transport winds will be light southwesterly
in the south and south through south-southeast in the north. Smoke dispersal conditions generally moderate
except for good in the southern Cascades.
2. DISPERSION
MONDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface
wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind NW
to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 800 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface
wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.
Zone 605-611
(North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height 3600 - 4600 ft.
Transport wind
NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface
wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface
wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height 2600 - 3600 ft.
Transport wind N
to NE at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface
wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
shifts to NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface
wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains above 2300 ft.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind
increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 500 ft after sunset.
Transport wind NW
to N at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface
wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY
Mixing
height 1100 to 2100 ft during the morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SW to WNW at
5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the
afternoon. Surface
wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 14 mph
during the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to
3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WSW
at 8 - 12 mph. Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
THURSDAY
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to
2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW
at 6 - 12 mph. Surface
wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8
mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 20, 2013.
=================================================================
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units in or near corridors to 500
tons or less. Higher tonnage is possible
south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid burning in or near corridors. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in
Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Zone 615
Units should be
2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
No burning
allowed. Some burning allowed south of
the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.
Zone 610
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Siskiyous
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.