SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, December 14, 2018       2:35 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere is unstable and will continue to mix vigorously with windy conditions on Saturday. Care will be needed in selecting units, as fumigation is likely in wind-prone areas, making prescribed burning a challenge. Scattered rain showers will allow in few sunbreaks, but the warm air from the tropical Pacific Ocean will boost temperatures back up to seasonal averages.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Active weather continues for Sunday and into early next week, as another series of disturbances pushes in from the Gulf of Alaska. Very cold air aloft comes in behind the storm system on Sunday, so isolated thundershowers are possible near the coast, with mountain snow showers in the Cascades as the Snow Level sinks down to 3,000 feet. Monday will see a brief period of sunnier skies, as showers taper off. Strong southerly flow will again push temperatures up, just above seasonal averages; the Snow Level rises back up to 5,000 feet. A powerful storm system moves in on Tuesday, with more W-SW flow aloft. This has the potential to be a very favorable day for controlled burning in many locations across western Oregon, though strong transport winds may knock over smoke plumes at times.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SE at 10 - 20 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 42 - 62 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 10 - 16 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind S at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 30 - 50 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S at 35 - 55 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind increases to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW at 20 - 34 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind S to SSW at 44 - 64 mph.  Surface wind SE to S at 12 - 22 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 44 - 64 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 20 - 34 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 41 - 61 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 15 and 16, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, 620, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.