SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Saturday,
April 19, 2014 2:30 PM Doug Wesley
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
**************** Easter Weekend Contact Information
*****************
The ODF Weather Office will not be staffed on
Sunday April 20. Contact (971) 239-9807 for direct forecast support on Sunday
if needed. ********************************************************************
WEST
A new upper wave
concentrated over WA is brushing the region today. Increasing W flow aloft, increased
moisture, and a surface cold front exiting to the east
are the primary weather drivers. Rain
showers are probable across most areas for the afternoon. Mixing is generally very
good with increasing SW-W transport winds. Transport wind directions are shifting
as the front moves through with gusty conditions.
New upper troughing will begin to develop again well west of OR on
Sunday with SW flow aloft and decreased but mostly moderate afternoon mixing. Afternoon
transport winds will likely be much weaker and some low-elevation areas will
see only local low-level winds well into the daytime hours.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Moisture onset with
the next system appears likely on Monday by afternoon, as troughing
offshore deepens significantly, begins to move onshore, and deep S-SW flow strengthens
over the region. Precipitation is possibly for the afternoon and later as the
new warm front will affect the region. It appears likely that transport and
mixed depths should be healthy on Monday afternoon.
The current forecast
for Tuesday is for unsettled, cooler conditions with widespread precipitation
and general W-NW low-level winds with good mixed depths. Snow will be likely at
higher elevations. For Wednesday, at this point model guidance is pointing
towards a general drying trend late, but continued cool, cloudy conditions with
good afternoon transport and healthy mixed depths.
2. DISPERSION
SUNDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind becomes
light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Zone 605-611
(North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S
to SW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind S
to SW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind light
and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface
wind similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200
to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to
3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. In the Coast Range transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the
morning becoming SSW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon. In the Cascades transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W
at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3800
to 4800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to
3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to
WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY
In the north
mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to
4000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft
during the afternoon. Transport wind SW
to W at 10 - 18 mph. Surface
wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 12 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, April 20 and
21, 2014.
=================================================================
For Sunday:
Coast Range
***Complete
ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601,
use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 620
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 9 a.m. in Zone 617 and 622.
Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
and 611
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
609, 610, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 616
Units should be 500
tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible. Call the forecaster.
Zone 620 and 622
No burning
allowed.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Day 2
(Monday) instruction:
Coast Range
***Complete
ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601 and 612
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook in Zone 601,
use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T29S in Zone 616. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind
SSRAs. No burning allowed south of T35S.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 9 a.m. in Zone 617 and 622.
Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 605, 606,
620, and 622
No burning
allowed.
Zone 607, 608,
609, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 610 and 611
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is
possible. Call the forecaster.
Siskiyous
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.