SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 2, 2016       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Strengthening southerly flow aloft will maintain a chance of showers and afternoon thundershowers on Tuesday.  Showers and thundershowers are likely on Wednesday.  Expect good daytime mixing with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures to near average by Wednesday.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

An upper-level trough is predicted to detach from the main jet stream and stall over California Thursday and Friday.  Showers should decrease, from north to south, with winds veering to the NW-N.  daytime mixing will remain good with near-average temperatures.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SW to W at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, May 3, 2016.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 610, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

 

Zone 611 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Units to the W-SSW of Bend should be 500 tons or less and 20 miles from the SSRA.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.