SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, May 24, 2019       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

 

****For the Memorial Holiday Weekend, staffing of the office will occur on Sunday only. Today’s forecast will cover burning for Saturday and Sunday and Sunday’s forecast will cover burning for Monday and Tuesday. Let me know if you have questions or concerns or burn requests by 5 p.m. today.****

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

An upper level low is moving through the state today bringing scattered showers this afternoon and evening. Another low will follow on its heels tomorrow, coming down from along the British Columbia coastline. Showers and/or thundershowers are expected again tomorrow. Rainfall totals will likely be greater in most places tomorrow vs. today’s moisture. Air mass will remain unstable and wind flow onshore.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Upper level low drops to the south of the state on Sunday with an upper ridge forming to the north on Monday. However, wraparound flow from the east will likely set off continued afternoon and early evening shower activity through Monday and maybe into Tuesday. Air mass gradually dries out and stabilizes through the period.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to NNW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NNW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors WNW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

In the north mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.  Surface wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 25 and 26, 2019.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616, 617, and 623

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.