SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, October 31, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will become more stable overnight, as an upper level trough moves east of the Cascades before sunrise Saturday and an upper level ridge begins to build offshore Oregon. Onshore flow will persist, but weaken as a surface ridge forms Saturday afternoon. This will drop mixing heights quickly after sunset, as inversions form over western Oregon.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will remain stable Sunday, as the upper level ridge builds and slowly advances eastward across the region. Mixing conditions will deteriorate as a result of the warming air aloft. Winds will be light and influenced by terrain Sunday afternoon.

Sunday evening will see the upper level ridge flatten as a mid-level trough passes further north. A weak surface frontal system will extend a warm frontal boundary into western Oregon overnight. Rainfall will progressively cover western Oregon on Monday. Onshore flow will build, but mixing will remain suppressed as air continues to warm aloft. The mid-level trough will pass east of the region early Tuesday morning. This will cause the surface cold front moving onshore to fall apart before it reaches the Cascades. The atmosphere will be less stable as a result, with better mixing Tuesday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors W to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind WNW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind decreases to NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1200 to 2200 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 16 - 30 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 1, 2014.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.