SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, December 3, 2016 2:30 PM Gary Votaw

 

1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Rain and mountain snow will again become widespread across the area late tonight through Sunday. This weakening cold front will move across the state on Sunday but the coldest air of the season yet will follow behind it. Precipitation amounts may be around .50 in the northern valleys with 1.00 or more on the north coast and in mountains. Snow levels could fall below 2000 feet in the north late in the day with a dusting of snow possible late Sunday night in all western Oregon valleys. Transport winds will be NW-N across the north but begin the day SW in the south portion, turning W-NW later. Onshore flow and colder air aloft will allow for good mixing heights.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

An upper trough moving onshore on Monday will cause areas of rain or snow in valleys, with snow in mountains, then tapering off on Tuesday. Winds will range from S to W on Monday becoming N-NE on Tuesday.

The next significant storm is still expected to arrive late Wednesday and continue on Thursday. Valleys can expect a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow, with heavy snow in mountains. Friday will see valley rain and mountain snow with onshore flow.

 

2. DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4200 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3900 - 4900 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind shifts to W to NW and decreases to 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

In the north mixing height 3000 to 4000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the south mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. In the north surface wind S to SW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon. In the south surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day. Transport wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon. Transport wind E to SSE at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming ESE to SE at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, December 4 and 5, 2016.

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For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S. Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Monday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.