SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 22, 2017       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

Our current thermal trough at the surface will begin shifting eastward on Tuesday in response to an upper level trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska. Sunny and dry weather will dominate though the north half of W Oregon will be cooler. The inland south will remain hot and very dry. The primary marine push will occur late on Tuesday and overnight. Smoke dispersion will again be poor during the morning, then improve in the afternoon but winds may swirl and keep smoke from rising well. Transport winds will begin the day very light and variable then become increasingly NW in the afternoon, or even N to NE for the South Coast.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The upper trough will be over Washington early on Wednesday and then into Montana late in the day. No rain is expected as the low passes by. The offshore ridge will build again by Thursday and persist through the weekend, causing warmer than normal and dry conditions each day. Smoke dispersion will continue poor during the mornings, improving by around noon while winds range from NW to NE.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1900 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to NW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.

Transport wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind N to NE at 10 - 20 mph.  In the Cascades transport wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, May 23, 2017.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.