SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
November 9, 2026 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:
Written forecasts will
continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates
as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days
(except for updates).
With the pace and scale of
burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize
burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the
public.
Please call your local ODF
field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific
burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line
(503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line
for use primarily by ODF districts.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
The ridge builds further on Wednesday but moves east in
advance of an offshore trough heading towards California. There is a chance of light showers at the NW
corner of Oregon but skies otherwise across the region will be partly sunny with
still warm conditions. Burning
conditions will be fair with S-SSW winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
While a trough approaches California
on Thursday another stronger trough approaches from the Aleutian Islands. Clouds increase and light rain is possible
along the coast late in the day, remaining 10-20oF above seasonal. Look for poor to fair mixing with very light ESE-S
winds.
The trough reaches the
coast on Friday, providing cooling and increasing rain across West Oregon with
possible thunderstorms. The snow level
remains above 6-7000 feet. Expected precipitation
is .75” to 1.50” in the Coast Range while typically .25” to .50” inland. Mixing potential is excellent by the
afternoon with brisk SE-S winds.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SE
to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW at 20 - 34 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 5 - 9 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
1200 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind
SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2900 - 3900 ft.
Transport wind S
to SW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 5 - 9 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
2900 - 3900 ft.
Transport wind
SSW to SW at 16 - 30 mph.
Surface wind S to
SW at 6 - 12 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height below
1000 ft early rising to 1100 - 2100 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind
increases to SSW to W at 5 - 9 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late
morning and through the afternoon. In
the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by
late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon, then falling below
1000 ft again in evening. Transport wind
S to SSW at 8 - 12 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1400 to 2400 ft during the afternoon
then falling below l000 ft in evening.
Transport wind ESE to S at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind light and variable.
FRIDAY
In the Coast
Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3600 to 4600 ft by late
morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft
early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind SSE to S at 23
- 37 mph. Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10
- 16 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
- Valid for burning done Tuesday through
Thursday, November 10 through 12, 2026.
=================================================================
For Tuesday:
Coast Range
Zone 601
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m. in zones 616-623.***
All zones except
zone 611
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Wednesday:
Coast Range
Zone 601
Units should be
1500 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind
SSRAs. North of Tillamook, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Zone 602 and 603
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Units may be 900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, south of the
Siuslaw River in Zone 603.
Zone 612
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 615, 616
west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 610, 617, and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to
dissipate. Verify transport winds away
from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.
Zone 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
600 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S.
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
For Thursday:
Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Zone 601, 602,
603, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, 619, and 620
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616 - call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S -
call the forecaster.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 10 a.m.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607, 608,
and 611
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 12 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below.
Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 616
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible -
call the forecaster.
Zone 617, 620,
and 622
Units should be
1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
900 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTES:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss burning. Please do not call
individual's numbers to
discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is
not available,
leave a message and they will return your
call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/
909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs. Example: 75 tons
allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if burning
within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to
100 tons per mile if
burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 300 tons allowed if burned 5 miles
from a downwind SSRA.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.