SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Friday, June 15, 2018 1:25 PM Pete Parsons

 

******************* Final Forecast of the Season ********************

This is the final written forecast of the 2018 spring burning season. Please call the ODF forecast office, at 503-945-7401, for smoke clearance or questions, until written forecasts resume this autumn.

Summer staffing will be Monday Friday, from 7 a.m. until 5 p.m. The office will be closed on July 4th and September 3rd (holidays).

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

A weak disturbance will drop southward tonight, from British Columbia, and reinforce the mostly-dry upper-level trough over Oregon. Enhanced onshore flow will force considerable marine clouds across the western zones by Saturday morning, along with a chance of light showers.

The upper-level trough will stall over northern California and southern Oregon this weekend. The air aloft will stay cool enough to keep temperatures moderate and provide some instability. Although initially moisture-starved, the upper-level trough will likely entrain enough mid-level moisture to generate a few showers and thundershowers over the southern and eastern zones. Transport winds will be generally NW-NE with good daytime mixing.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The trough is predicted to slowly drift across northern Nevada on Monday and lift into SE Idaho by Tuesday. That will promote a drier and more stable N-NE flow aloft over Oregon. More sunshine and warming aloft will help temperatures climb to 10-15 degrees above average but with a continued risk of a shower over the southern mountains Through Monday. Transport winds will remain NW-NE. Afternoon mixing should be good over the eastern zones, but warming aloft may begin to suppress mixing over the coast range.

2. DISPERSION

 

SATURDAY

 

All Zones:

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 20 mph. Surface wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, June 16 and 17, 2018.

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For Saturday:

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602. Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606. Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 607, 608, and 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 617 and 623

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart. South of T36S in Zone 623, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

 

Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

discuss burning. Please do not call individual's numbers to

discuss daily burning. If the forecaster is not available,

leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

The forecast is available on the Internet at:

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: No burning within 10 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 15 miles of

downwind SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

Example: 750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

 

 

6. BURN MONITORING:

 

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.