SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 22, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper level trough will brush the northern zones overnight and into Thursday morning, keeping the atmosphere unstable with breezy onshore flow. Showers will be heavy at times in the morning, tapering off as the jet stream carries the upper level trough east of the Cascades before sunset. 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern will remain active into the weekend, as the atmospheric river meanders back over Oregon on Friday. An upper level trough over the Pacific Ocean will deepen, forming a frontal system within the atmospheric river and enhancing the onshore flow. The warm front will sweep across western Oregon, bringing heavy rains and strong winds behind it. Mixing will deteriorate slightly in the warm air aloft that will move onshore Friday evening, aided mainly by the high wind speeds over rough terrain.

The upper level trough will quickly exit the region, causing the frontal boundary to stall out in the Cascades and fall apart. Mixing will improve ahead of this cold front, as showery weather moves onshore before losing upper level support Saturday afternoon. This provides a stabilizing effect on the atmosphere for Sunday, as flow aloft becomes more west to east and the onshore flow eases up. Isolated showers will impact higher terrain in the western zones, and mixing will decrease as a surface ridge begins to form near the southern Cascades.

2.  DISPERSION

 

THURSDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2600 - 3600 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SE to S and decreases to 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3400 - 4400 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SE to S at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2900 to 3900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 23, 2014.

=================================================================

 

Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

 

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.