SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
June 23, 2017 2:30 PM Tom Jenkins
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The final Smoke Management Forecast & Instructions for Spring/Summer 2017
will be issued on Saturday, June 24th 2017. Additional support will
be available by telephone from the on-duty meteorologist at (503) 945-7401
Mon-Fri, 7am to 5pm.
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623
and 639
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
An
upper-level ridge will move across western Oregon on Saturday, maintaining a
stable weather pattern. A thermal trough will form in the Willamette Valley,
increasing N-NE transport winds in the afternoon. Mixing conditions will develop
slowly through the day, but rapidly diminish as inversions form by nightfall
under clear skies.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
The
weather pattern will begin to transition on Sunday, as the upper-level ridge
shifts east of the Cascades. The thermal trough shifts into central Oregon in
the late afternoon. This will turn transport winds more N-NW in the Willamette
Valley, with mixing conditions once again crashing as inversions develop before
sunset. An upper-level trough approaches Oregon from the southwest on Monday,
destabilizing the atmosphere. W-NW onshore flow brings in cooler air to promote
mixing conditions Monday afternoon. A second upper-level trough sweeps down
from the Canadian coast overnight. Onshore flow will increase winds as a dry
Cold Front moves across western Oregon, producing isolated mountain showers
that will track into central Oregon Tuesday afternoon.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ENE to E at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to E at 9 - 15 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
decreases to NNE to E at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind NNE
to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind
ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind ENE
to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind NE
to E at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft by sunset.
Transport wind NE
to E at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind NNE
to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind
light and variable but favors SW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to morning.
Surface wind
increases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.
EVENING
Mixing height
remains below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
similar to afternoon.
Surface wind
shifts to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing height
below 1000 ft.
Transport wind
light and variable but favors W and controlled by local terrain.
Surface wind SW
to W at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing height
rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind
increases to SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind
similar to morning.
EVENING
Mixing height
lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.
Transport wind
shifts to NNW to N and increases to 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind
shifts to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1900 to 2900 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to
NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.
Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to
NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
1400 to 2400 ft during the morning rising to 2600 to
3600 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during
the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the
morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, June 24, 2017.
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Coast Range
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***
Zone 601, 602,
603, and 612
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.
Zone 615 and 616
west of R8W
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in
Zone 616. Call the forecaster.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units should be
500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T29S. Call the forecaster.
Zone 618 and 619
Units should be 750
tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 620
No burning
allowed.
Cascades
***Avoid
ignitions before 11 a.m. in all zones.
Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610 and
611.***
Zone 605 and 606
Units should be
300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 607 and 608
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Units should be 750
tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Zone 616
Units should be
750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of T24S. South of T29S higher tonnage is possible. Call the forecaster.
Zone 617 and 623
Use standard
guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620 and 622
Units should be 750
tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Units should be
1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To
subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to
the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind
SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.