SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Sunday, April 22, 2018       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

An upper-level ridge builds over western Oregon, stabilizing the atmosphere on Monday. Clear skies will allow rapid heating, breaking the inversion before noon and creating offshore flow. Mixing and ventilation will be favorable for prescribed burning, but will diminish as a new inversion forms before sunset.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

The weather pattern experiences little change over the next several days, as the upper-level ridge becomes locked in place over Oregon. Offshore flow will persist with temperatures climbing well above seasonal averages, and the Snow Line will continue to rise and promote snowmelt in the mountains. Inversions will form quickly under clear skies at night, but strong morning sunlight will help promote mixing during the late morning & afternoon hours for prescribed burning activities.

2.  DISPERSION

 

MONDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NE to E at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind increases to NE to ENE at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind ENE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 3100 - 4100 ft by late morning.

Transport wind E to ESE at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind increases to E to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors NE to E and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind E to ESE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 12 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors E and controlled by local terrain.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to ESE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 to 2700 ft by late morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, April 23, 2018.

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Coast Range

 

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 639, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616, 617, and 623

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

    http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

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5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.