SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 23, 2016†††††† 2:30 PM††††† Pete Parsons

 

1.DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

As the upper-level trough over the region slowly weakens and shifts eastward, showers will decrease on Tuesday.Cool air aloft will maintain good daytime mixing with mostly NW transport winds.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Wednesday and much of Thursday will be drier and more stable, as a NW flow aloft brings some clearing.A stray shower canít be ruled out, especially over higher terrain.Cool air aloft and strong onshore flow will maintain good mixing and below-average temperatures.Another cool trough, from the Gulf of Alaska, will increase the showers late Thursday and Friday, especially north.

2.DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611, 639 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2700 to 3700 ft during the morning rising to 4400 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 2800 to 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph.Surface wind W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

3.BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning done on Tuesday, May 24, 2016.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.Avoid burning in or near corridors.Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.Call the forecaster.Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.SPECIAL NOTE:

 

††† Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

††† discuss burning.Please do not call individual's numbers to

††† discuss daily burning.If the forecaster is not available,

††† leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

††† Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

††† The forecast is available on the Internet at:

††† http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm

 

††† Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

††† http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

††† A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

††† http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

††† The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

††† Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

††† To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

††† http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:No burning within 5 miles of

††† downwind SSRA.Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

††† Example:500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:No burning within 10 miles of

††† downwind SSRA.Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

††† Example:750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height:No burning within 15 miles of

††† downwind SSRA.Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

††† Example:750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

††† prior to ignition.

 

 

6.BURN MONITORING:

 

††† Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

††† burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.