SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
May 24, 2019 2:30 PM Nick Yonker
****For the Memorial Holiday Weekend,
staffing of the office will occur on Sunday only. Today’s forecast will
cover burning for Saturday and Sunday and Sunday’s forecast will cover burning
for Monday and Tuesday. Let me know if you have questions or concerns or burn
requests by 5 p.m. today.****
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639
An
upper level low is moving through the state today bringing scattered showers
this afternoon and evening. Another low will follow on its heels tomorrow,
coming down from along the British Columbia coastline. Showers and/or
thundershowers are expected again tomorrow. Rainfall totals will likely be
greater in most places tomorrow vs. today’s moisture. Air mass will remain
unstable and wind flow onshore.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Upper
level low drops to the south of the state on Sunday with an upper ridge forming
to the north on Monday. However, wraparound flow from the east will likely set
off continued afternoon and early evening shower activity through Monday and
maybe into Tuesday. Air mass gradually dries out and stabilizes through the
period.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Zone 601, 602,
603 and 612 (North Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface
wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.
Transport
wind NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Zone 605-611 and
639 (North Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind SW to W at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind similar to morning.
Surface
wind becomes light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local
terrain.
EVENING
Mixing
height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.
Transport
wind shifts to NW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 615-620
(South Coast Range):
MORNING
Mixing
height 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport
wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind light and variable but favors NW to NNW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height 4000 - 5000 ft.
Transport
wind similar to morning.
Surface
wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.
Transport
wind NNW to N at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface
wind similar to afternoon.
Zone 616-623
(South Cascades):
MORNING
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.
Surface
wind light and variable but favors WNW to NW and controlled by local terrain.
AFTERNOON
Mixing
height above 5000 ft.
Transport
wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface
wind increases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.
EVENING
Mixing
height lowers below 3000 ft after sunset.
Transport
wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface
wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
In
the north mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the
morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the
afternoon. In the south mixing height
3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph. Surface wind NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing
height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3500
to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the
morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing
height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to
3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the
morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE
WESTERN OREGON AREA
These
instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, May 25 and
26, 2019.
=================================================================
For Saturday:
Coast Range
Zone 601 and 612
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Restrict units in or near
corridors to 500 tons or less. Higher
tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612. Call the forecaster.
Zone 602 and 603
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Avoid burning in or near
corridors. Higher tonnage is possible
south of T17S in Zone 603. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 615
Units
should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 616 west of
R8W
Units
should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 616 east of
R9W
Units
should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Restrict units to 500 tons or
less south of T30S.
Zone 618 and 619
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Zone 620
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of the Rogue River. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
607, 608, 639, 616, 617, and 623
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate. From T15S
through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles
apart. South of T30S in Zone 616 units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.
Zone 610 and 611
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 620 and 622
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. East of R2W in Zone 622, use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
Siskiyous
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
For Sunday:
Coast Range
Zone 601, 612,
615, 616, 618, 619, and 620
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal
SSRAs.
Zone 602 and 603
Units
should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Avoid ignitions north of Forest
Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone
602. Higher tonnage is possible south of
T17S in Zone 603. Call the forecaster.
Cascades
Zone 605, 606,
620, and 622
Units
should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs. Higher tonnage is possible south
of T20S in Zone 606. Call the
forecaster.
Zone 607 and 608
Units
should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Zone 639, 610,
and 611
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.) Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs
for smoke to dissipate.
Zone 616, 617,
and 623
Units
should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind
SSRAs.
Siskiyous
Use
standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
Call the smoke management duty forecaster
at (503) 945-7401 to
discuss
burning. Please do not call individual's
numbers to
discuss daily
burning. If the forecaster is not
available,
leave a message
and he will return your call as soon as possible.
Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.
The forecast is available on the Internet
at:
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/Daily/smi.htm
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by checking:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
The forecast/instruction telephone
recording is: (503) 945-7400.
Submit feedback at:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 5 miles
of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 100 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 10
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 75 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft
mixing height: No burning within 15
miles of
downwind
SSRA. Limit to 50 tons per mile from
downwind SSRA.
Example:
750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all
burns is highly
recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.