SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Sunday, May 19, 2013       2:30 PM      Jim Little

 

1.    DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

 

Look for a brief dry spell on Monday before a very cold (for this time of year) upper low moves over the region.  This low is likely to remain over the Pacific Northwest through Friday night.  

    MONDAY

 

Minor ridging aloft on Monday will give dry weather to the area and temperatures should be a bit above average for mid May.  Expect temperatures near average at the coast but 3 to 6 degrees above average inland.  Skies will be mostly sunny.  Transport winds will range from north-northwest to north-northeast most areas.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be moderate to fair at the coast and good over the Cascades. 

 

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)

 

The upper low drops into the region and will meander over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.  The exact location of the center of the low is difficult to pinpoint but it is broad enough to affect the entire area.  Rain will reach the north coast shortly after midnight and by 10am will cover virtually all of western Oregon.  Cool air with the low will tumble temperatures with highs at valley locations likely 8-12 degrees below average.  The snow level will drop to about 3000 feet in the north and 4000 feet in the south by early evening.  Transport winds will become northwesterly while smoke dispersal conditions will be mostly moderate to fair.

 

Wednesday the low remains over the Pacific Northwest.  Temperatures continue to drop with highs only in the 50’s at many valley locations.  Snow will fall as low as 3000 feet in the mountains.  Expect showery weather in the north, more steady precipitation to the south.  Transport winds will initially be mostly from the west to west-northwest, then gradually become southwest to south during the day.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be good in the north, moderate in the south.

 

Expect little change in the upper air pattern on Thursday with the cool upper low dominating.  Showers continue in the north with mostly cloudy skies in the Rogue Valley.  Transport winds will be light southwesterly in the south and south through south-southeast in the north.  Smoke dispersal conditions generally moderate except for good in the southern Cascades. 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

MONDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 800 ft after sunset.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

 

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 3600 - 4600 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind N to NE at 8 - 14 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 2300 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1100 to 2100 ft during the morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, May 20, 2013.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.