SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Saturday, April 19, 2014       2:30 PM      Doug Wesley

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

 

**************** Easter Weekend Contact Information *****************

The ODF Weather Office will not be staffed on Sunday April 20. Contact (971) 239-9807 for direct forecast support on Sunday if needed. ********************************************************************

WEST

A new upper wave concentrated over WA is brushing the region today. Increasing W flow aloft, increased moisture, and a surface cold front exiting to the east are the primary weather drivers.  Rain showers are probable across most areas for the afternoon. Mixing is generally very good with increasing SW-W transport winds. Transport wind directions are shifting as the front moves through with gusty conditions.

New upper troughing will begin to develop again well west of OR on Sunday with SW flow aloft and decreased but mostly moderate afternoon mixing. Afternoon transport winds will likely be much weaker and some low-elevation areas will see only local low-level winds well into the daytime hours.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Moisture onset with the next system appears likely on Monday by afternoon, as troughing offshore deepens significantly, begins to move onshore, and deep S-SW flow strengthens over the region. Precipitation is possibly for the afternoon and later as the new warm front will affect the region. It appears likely that transport and mixed depths should be healthy on Monday afternoon.

The current forecast for Tuesday is for unsettled, cooler conditions with widespread precipitation and general W-NW low-level winds with good mixed depths. Snow will be likely at higher elevations. For Wednesday, at this point model guidance is pointing towards a general drying trend late, but continued cool, cloudy conditions with good afternoon transport and healthy mixed depths.

 

 

 

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

SUNDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

 

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

MONDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

TUESDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3800 to 4800 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday and Monday, April 20 and 21, 2014.

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For Sunday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 9 a.m. in Zone 617 and 622.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 607, 608, 609, 610, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

For Day 2 (Monday) instruction:

 

Coast Range

 

***Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  No burning allowed south of T35S.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 9 a.m. in Zone 617 and 622.  Complete ignitions by 4 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

No burning allowed.

 

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.