SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Thursday, May 13, 2021       2:30 PM      Gary Votaw

 

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*        COVID-19 2021 Updated Prescribed Burning Restrictions        *

*                                                                     *

*A new plan has been put in place by the Governor. It is based on risk*

*level: Extreme, High, Moderate, and Lower Risk.                      *

*                                                                     *

*A map of the risk levels is located at: https://public.tableau.com/  *

*profile/Oregon.authority.covid.19#!/vizhome/                         *

*OregonCOVID-19PublicHealthIndicators/Risk                            *

*                                                                     *

*Since much of the region is in High or Extreme Risk, the instruction *

*is now defaulted to legacy rules (prior to March 1, 2019). Exceptions*

*to the rule can be made if burning in Moderate or Lower risk counties*

*Call the forecaster.                                                 *

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************** Important Schedule and Product Update ***************

The ODF forecast office has resumed Sunday-Friday operations (7 a.m. until 5 p.m.) for the duration of the spring burning season (office is closed on Saturdays).  Written forecasts will be issued each afternoon with burning instructions for the following day.  Friday’s forecasts will have burning instructions for the weekends.

If you have any questions, please call the ODF forecast office at 503-945-7401.

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1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

A weak upper-level trough will move over the region and possibly cause a light shower for the Cascades and southern mountains.  Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies and continued warm inland with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average, but still typically cool near the coast.  Mixing will be excellent for the Cascades but very limited in the Coast Range.  Transport winds will be NW to N except veering to N to NE late for the South Cascades.

 

    EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

The trough will sink into California on Friday night and into the weekend.  Under a weak ridge, Western Oregon will be mostly sunny, dry, and quite warm through Monday, still 5 to 15 degrees above normal for inland locations.  Clouds will begin to increase on Monday ahead of the next offshore trough.  Mixing levels for the weekend will still be limited in the Coast Range but with some improvement on Monday, and the Cascades will be very good each day.  Transport winds will range from NW to NNE.

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

FRIDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height remains below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height rising around 1000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

SATURDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft throughout the day.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

 

SUNDAY

In the Coast Range mixing height below 1000 ft throughout the day.  In the Cascades mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

MONDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1700 ft by late morning rising to 2600 to 3600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 14, 2021.

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Coast Range

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 602, 603, and 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

 

Cascades

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

 

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/smi.htm

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Fire/Pages/Burn.aspx

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.