SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, December 22, 2014       2:30 PM      Tom Jenkins
*********************************************************************

This will be the final smoke management instruction for 2014, and is valid for Tuesday, December 23rd and Wednesday, December 24th. ODF Smoke Management will be closed on December 25th and December 26th and will re-open on Monday, December 29th, 2014.

For smoke management guidance and burning clearance, call the forecaster Mondays through Fridays 7:30am-5:00pm. The smoke management instruction will resume when burning operations increase in Spring 2015 or sooner as required.

*********************************************************************

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623 and 639

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

The atmosphere will remains stable overnight and throughout Tuesday, as the upper level ridge builds in strength over the Oregon coast. The surface ridges will be enhanced by warming air aloft, shifting into the Cascades before mid-day. Winds will start out light & variable, influenced primarily by terrain, but shift to onshore flow Tuesday afternoon. Mixing conditions will start out poor, with little to no improvement in the afternoon hours. Onshore flow will persist after dark, as the upper level ridge passes east of the Cascades and an upper level trough approaches from the Gulf of Alaska.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Christmas Eve is primed to be a favorable burning day before the holiday weekend. The atmosphere will become unstable as an upper level trough approaches early Wednesday, following the jet stream southeast across Oregon. It will form a surface frontal system, with the warm front extending across northern zones before sunrise. Winds will shift to onshore flow by mid-day, with mixing improving ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Rain showers will sweep across western Oregon Wednesday afternoon and taper off after sunset.

By Thursday morning, another upper level ridge will begin to build offshore from the Pacific Northwest, stabilizing the atmosphere rapidly. Surface ridges will form by sunrise near the Oregon coast, creating steady onshore flow that will weaken as the ridges move onshore Christmas Day. Mixing conditions will start out good, maintained due to the advancing high pressure Thursday afternoon. Mixing heights will deteriorate rapidly after sunset, however, as inversions quickly develop. The upper level ridge will continue to build overnight, slowing its approach towards North America. This will strengthen the surface ridges and cause them become trapped on the western side of the Cascades Friday morning. Winds will become light & variable, influenced primarily by local terrain. Mixing conditions will remain poor all day under very stable conditions, and the atmosphere will progressively dry out through Friday evening.

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind WSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 605-611 and 639 (North Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind shifts to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind shifts to SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

 

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

 

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

 

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, December 23 and 24, 2014.

=================================================================

 

For Tuesday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

 

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

 

 

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

 

For Wednesday:

 

Coast Range

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

 

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

 

 

Cascades

 

***Avoid ignitions before 10 a.m. in all zones.  Complete ignitions by 2 p.m. in all zones.***

 

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 639, 611, 620, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

 

Zone 610 and 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

Zone 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

 

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

 

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m. 

 

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://www.oregon.gov/ODF/Pages/FIRE/fire.aspx#Smoke_Management_Information

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    The forecast/instruction telephone recording is: (503) 945-7400.

 

    Submit feedback at: http://weather.smkmgt.com/feedback.

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Limit to 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 tons allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) - 7/1/14). Monitoring of all

    burns is highly recommended for both smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.