SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

 

ISSUED: Monday, May 13, 2024       2:30 PM      Sherri Pugh

 

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625

 

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

 

Following an early shortwave upper-level trough passage on Monday, Tuesday will have NNW flow aloft as upper-level ridging builds offshore.  A few high clouds are likely during the day with dry weather and well-above average temperatures.  Mixing heights will be good.  Light winds will come from NNW-N.

 

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

 

Wednesday will be dry with a few high clouds under the influence of the offshore upper-level ridge.  Light flow aloft will come from NNW.  Temperatures will rise well-above average again and mixing heights will be good after morning inversions.  Winds will come from NNW-N, light at the surface.

 

Dry weather continues on Thursday with clear skies and stable conditions.  Flow aloft comes from NW with the upper-level ridge beginning to flatten.  Winds will come from WSW-W.  Unseasonably warm temperatures will have excellent mixing heights.

 

Friday will have clear and dry weather.  A shortwave upper-level trough moves down from north as the flattening upper-level ridge moves south.  Stronger winds will be from WNW-NW.  Temperatures stay well-above average.  Mixing heights will be good.

 

 

2.  DISPERSION

 

TUESDAY

 

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

 

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

 

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon.  Surface wind shifts to NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

 

OUTLOOK:

 

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

 

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

 

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

    - Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 14, 2024.

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Delay ignitions until 10 a.m. Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the NW through NNE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the NW through NE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary. 

 

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

 

    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

 

    http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

    Daily/lmt.htm

 

    To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

    product, please go to the link:

    http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

 

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

    checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

 

    A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

    http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html

    ?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b

 

 

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

    from downwind SSRAs.

    Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

    burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

    per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

    Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

    Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

    SSRA.

 

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

 

  * Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

    SSRAs.

 

  * Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

    piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

    50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

    for that zone.

 

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

 

 

6.  BURN MONITORING:

 

    Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

    7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

    smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.