SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Friday,
November 13, 2026
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process
Update:
Written forecasts
will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with
updates as needed. Forecasts will
include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).
With the pace and
scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to
maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to
the public.
Please call your
local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific
burns. If you are not sure who to
contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for
use primarily by ODF districts.
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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from
November 15 through February 15.
Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through
February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,”
“Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.” Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other
days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units
that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *
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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
Saturday will have a
brief upper-level ridging with some showers early after 0.10-0.25” rainfall from
the previous night. Mixing heights will
be excellent and temperatures will be near or below seasonable. Winds will come from S-SSW.
Showers increase on
Sunday with an additional 0.25” rainfall expected. Flow aloft will be from SW with the next
upper trough. Surface winds will be from
S-SSW. Brisk transport winds will come
from SSW. Temperatures will be below average. Mixing heights will be good.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Showers linger into
Monday, mostly east, with another 0.10” rainfall amounts. The upper trough will move inland
and freezing levels will drop to 4000 feet and lower. Mixing heights will be good. Winds will turn, becoming light from SW-WSW.
Tuesday will be dry
in between weather systems. Winds will
come from SSW. Temperatures will be
below seasonable and freezing levels will be at 4000
feet and lower. Mixing heights will
continue good.
More rain arrives midweek.
2. DISPERSION
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 800 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind S
to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the
afternoon then decreases to SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SSE
to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
S to SSW at 13 - 25 mph during the morning becoming
SSW to SW at 22 - 38 mph during the afternoon.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SW to W at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 -
4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625
INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Saturday through
Monday, November 14 through 16, 2026.
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For Saturday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the S through SW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Sunday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSW through SW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
SSW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
For Monday:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through WNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the
SW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
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4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/
909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb558
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater
than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.