SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
November 6, 2025
2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A weakening cold
front sweeps across the area tonight, then the upper-level trough passes very
early on Friday. Flow aloft becomes WNW
in afternoon. There is just a slight
chance of a morning shower, then skies become mostly sunny. Mixing potential is good with mainly W winds.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A strong
upper-level ridge will be over the area throughout the weekend. Partly
sunny skies will warm the area above seasonal normals, reaching 10-15oF
above average by Sunday. Warm air aloft significantly suppresses mixing
on both days. Transport winds will
generally be light and variable, favoring SE in the afternoons.
The ridge weakens somewhat by Monday with flow aloft becoming W,
but conditions change little. Skies will
be partly sunny but with poor mixing and light and variable wind, favoring SW.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Mixing height
3100 - 4100 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500 ft then lowers to 1000 -
2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.
Transport wind decreases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon then becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain
during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 - 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1700 -
2700 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind E to SE at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming ESE to S at 6 - 12 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 - 1700 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Friday, November
7, 2025.
==================================================================
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units in all directions of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.