SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
June 16, 2025
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625
SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION
A weak weather system bringing partly cloudy skies this
afternoon will move east this evening with skies clearing overnight.
Tuesday looks mostly sunny with a dry and stable westerly
flow aloft and at the surface.
Temperatures should be about 5°F above average with excellent daytime
mixing. Another weak weather system may
bring some clouds on Tuesday night.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
Wednesday looks mostly sunny and a little warmer with
excellent daytime mixing. Increasing SW
flow aloft will initiate a marine push in the afternoon, capping high temperatures
at 5-10°F above average with increasing W-NW surface and transport winds.
SW flow aloft continues Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Daytime mixing will remain excellent with increasing
onshore flow in the afternoon holding temperatures to about 5°F above average.
An unseasonably strong upper-level trough approaches from the
Gulf of Alaska on Friday, initiating a significant cooling trend. Skies turn mostly
cloudy with a chance of showers by afternoon.
Mixing should remain excellent, but strong onshore flow will chill
temperatures to 5-10°F below average. Expect
a few showers Friday night and Saturday with temperatures dropping to about 15°F
below average.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 3000 - 4000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind SSW
to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3700 - 4700 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the
afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
SW to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 12 - 22 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 9 - 15 mph during
the afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 13 - 22 mph. Surface wind
WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 13 - 22 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER
RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, June 17,
2025.
==================================================================
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning
units to the SSW through NW of SSRAs.
For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid
burning within at least 10 miles to the SSW through NW in or near drainages
leading to SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
==============================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)
945-7401.
The smoke management forecaster is available
to discuss specific burns. The duty forecaster phone
number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this
number and
not individual's numbers to discuss daily
burning. Please
avoid calling between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/lmt.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.