SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
May 13, 2024
2:30 PM Sherri Pugh
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
Following
an early shortwave upper-level trough passage on Monday, Tuesday will have NW
flow aloft as upper-level ridging builds offshore. A few high clouds are likely during the day
with dry weather and above average temperatures. Mixing heights will be good. Light surface winds will come from NNW and
transport winds will come from NW-NNW.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Wednesday
will be dry with a few high clouds under the influence of the offshore
upper-level ridge. Light flow aloft will
come from NNW. Temperatures will rise
well-above average and mixing heights will be good after morning
inversions. Winds will come from NW-NNW.
Dry
weather continues on Thursday with clear skies and stable conditions. Flow aloft comes from NW with the upper-level
ridge beginning to flatten. Winds will
increase from WNW-NW. Unseasonably warm
temperatures will have good mixing heights.
Friday
will have clear and dry weather. A
shortwave upper-level trough moves down from north as the flattening upper-level
ridge moves south. Stronger winds will
be from WNW-NW. Temperatures stay above average. Mixing heights will be good.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 3500 - 4500
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph throughout the day.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
below 500 ft early rising to 2300 - 3300 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000
ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to NW to N at 8 - 12
mph during the afternoon and evening.
Surface wind NW
to N at 4 - 8 mph.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during
the afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising to 4500 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15
mph during the afternoon. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during
the afternoon.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to
5000 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph. Surface
wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, May 14,
2024.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the WNW through N of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
25 miles to the WNW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Delay
ignitions until 10 a.m.
Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to
the NW through NNE of SSRAs. For units
that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least
25 miles to the NW through NNE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if
burning in any other direction. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.