SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Thursday,
November 6, 2025 2:30 PM Gary Votaw
1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION
A weakening cold
front sweeps across East Oregon tonight, then the upper-level trough passes very
early on Friday. Flow aloft becomes WNW
in afternoon. Showers taper off during
the morning, becoming mostly sunny by afternoon and snow levels may drop to
5000 feet before snow ends. Mixing potential
is very good with winds turning W-NW.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION
A strong upper-level
ridge will be over the area throughout the weekend. Morning low
clouds and fog will turn to sunny skies in the afternoons with temperatures
above seasonal normals, reaching 10-15oF above average by Sunday
afternoon. Warm air aloft significantly suppresses mixing on both
days. Transport winds will generally be
light and variable, except to favor SE-S for western zones on Saturday.
The ridge weakens somewhat by Monday with flow aloft becoming W, but conditions change little.
Skies will be mostly sunny but with poor mixing and light and variable
wind, favoring SW-WNW in the afternoon.
2. DISPERSION
FRIDAY
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Mixing height
3700 - 4700 ft during the morning.
Afternoon mixing height rises to 4000 - 5000 ft then lowers to 1000 -
2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind W
to WNW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to WNW to NNW at 4 -
8 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Mixing height
4000 - 5000 ft during the morning.
Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to
1000 - 2000 ft during the evening.
Transport wind
WNW to NW at 12 - 24 mph during the morning.
Transport wind decreases to WNW to NW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon
and decreases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.
Surface wind WNW
to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind becomes light and variable and
controlled by local terrain during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1900 to
2900 ft during the afternoon. Transport
wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind
light and variable during the morning becoming ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during
the afternoon.
SUNDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable. Surface wind light and
variable.
MONDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1700 ft during the
afternoon. Transport wind light and
variable during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the
afternoon. Surface wind light and
variable.
3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON
ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Friday, November
7, 2025.
==================================================================
Zone 640, 642,
and 644 West of R35E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the WSW through
NNW of SSRAs. For units that will
smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles
in all directions of SSRAs. No
additional restrictions necessary.
Zone 637, 643,
645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the W through N of
SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles in all
directions of SSRAs. No additional
restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from
the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.