SMOKE MANAGEMENT
FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY
WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT
OF FORESTRY
ISSUED: Monday,
June 16, 2025
2:30 PM Pete Parsons
******************** Instruction
Zones Update ***********************
The National Weather Service recently
changed borders and numbering of their fire zones. ODF will use the
previous zone boundaries for smoke management and not change with these
updates.
A link to ODF’s smoke forecast
zones is at the bottom of the instructions in the Special Notes section.
(https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf)
*********************************************************************
1. DISCUSSION AND
FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646
A weak
weather system, embedded in a SW flow aloft, may bring a few showers or thunderstorms
to the eastern mountains through this evening with skies clearing overnight.
Tuesday
looks mostly sunny with a dry and stable westerly flow aloft and at the
surface. Temperatures will be slightly
above average with excellent daytime mixing.
A weak weather system may bring some clouds late, but showers are
unlikely.
EXTENDED
DISCUSSION
Wednesday looks mostly sunny and a little warmer with
excellent daytime mixing. Increasing SW
flow aloft will initiate a marine push in the afternoon, capping high temperatures
at 5-10°F above average with increasing W-NW winds at the surface.
SW flow aloft continues Thursday with mostly sunny skies. Daytime mixing remains excellent with increasing
onshore flow in the afternoon holding temperatures to about 5°F above average.
An unseasonably strong upper-level trough approaches from the
Gulf of Alaska on Friday, initiating a significant cooling trend. Skies turn mostly cloudy with a chance of
showers by afternoon, mainly over the mountains. Mixing should remain excellent, but strong onshore
flow will hold temperatures below average.
Showers are likely Friday night and Saturday with temperatures dropping
to about 15°F below average.
2. DISPERSION
TUESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 - 3800 ft by late morning. Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft
then lowers to 2500 - 3500 ft during the evening.
Transport wind SW
to W at 6 - 10 mph during the morning.
Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the
afternoon then shifts to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the evening.
Surface wind SW
to W at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Surface wind shifts to
WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind light
and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph during the
afternoon.
THURSDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 18 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind W to
NW at 4 - 8 mph.
FRIDAY
Mixing height
below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 to 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000
ft during the afternoon. Transport wind
WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 18 - 32 mph
during the afternoon. Surface wind WSW
to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 15 - 29 mph
during the afternoon.
3. BURNING
INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646
- Valid for burning done Tuesday, June 17,
2025.
==================================================================
Follow standard
guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNW
of SSRAs. For units that will smolder
significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the
SW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.
=========================================================
4. SPECIAL NOTE:
The ODF forecast
smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and
are available at:
https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf
The smoke management forecaster is
available at (503)-
945-7401. Please call this number and not
individual's
numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over
2000 tons) or burns extending over a
considerable period,
please request a
special forecast. Avoid calling
between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.
http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/
Daily/neo.htm
To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the
email list for this
product, please go to the link:
http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/
Please ensure your units have been planned
and accomplished by
checking:
http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml
A map of planned and/or accomplished burns
is located at:
http://geo.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html
?id=a7e321dc8fc444b7a33fbc67bc673a3b
5. STANDARD GUIDANCE
MATRIX:
* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit
to 150 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half
mile from a downwind
SSRA.
* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50
tons per mile if
burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs.
Limit to 100 tons
per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond
downwind SSRAs.
Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5
miles from a downwind
SSRA.
* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning
within 5 miles of
downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile
from downwind SSRAs.
* Ensure adequate spacing between units when
burning near downwind
SSRAs.
* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on
greater than 75 percent of
piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage
per pile will allow a
50 percent increase in tonnage over the
existing instruction tonnage
for that zone.
* All exceptions must be coordinated with the
duty forecaster
prior to ignition.
6. BURN MONITORING:
Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR
629-048-0230(3) -
7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly
recommended for both
smoke management purposes and wildfire
potential.