SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, November 13, 2026 2:30 PM Sherri Pugh

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Burn Forecast/Instruction Process Update:

Written forecasts will continue to be issued on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday afternoons with updates as needed. Forecasts will include burning instructions for multiple days (except for updates).

With the pace and scale of burning increasing statewide, a more coordinated effort is needed to maximize burning opportunities while simultaneously minimizing smoke impacts to the public.

Please call your local ODF field office with questions regarding burning clearance for specific burns. If you are not sure who to contact, the forecast line (503-945-7401) remains available. However, we are transitioning that line for use primarily by ODF districts.

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* Special Protection Zone (SPZ) provisions apply from November 15 through February 15. Prescribed burning is not allowed in an SPZ from December 1 through February 15 on days when the daily woodstove “Ordinance” is either “Red,” “Exempt Wood Burning Device,” or “No Burning Period.” Burning is allowed inside of SPZs all other days, but please use extra precautions and limit forestland burning to units that will not worsen air quality within nearby SSRAs. *

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1. DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 637-646

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION

Saturday will have a brief upper-level ridging with some showers early after 0.10-0.25” rainfall from the previous night. Mixing heights will be excellent and temperatures will be near or above seasonable. Winds will come from S-SW, lighter in northeastern zones.

Showers increase on Sunday with an additional 0.25” rainfall expected. Flow aloft will be from SW with the next upper trough. Surface winds will be from SE-SSW. Brisk transport winds will come from S-SSW. Temperatures will be near average. Mixing heights will be good.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION

Showers linger into Monday, mostly east, with another 0.10” rainfall amounts. The upper trough will move inland and freezing levels will drop to 4000 feet and lower. Mixing heights will be good. Winds will turn, becoming light from W.

Tuesday will be dry in between weather systems. Winds will come from SSW in central zones and from W-NW in northeastern zones. Temperatures will be below seasonable and freezing levels will be at 4000 feet and lower. Mixing heights will continue good. More rain arrives midweek.

2. DISPERSION

SATURDAY

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning. Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon. Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.

Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning and afternoon. Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning. Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph throughout the morning and afternoon. Transport wind shifts to ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning. Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2800 to 3800 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph. Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3300 to 4300 ft during the afternoon. Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon. Surface wind light and variable.

3. BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 637-646

- Valid for burning done Saturday through Monday, November 14 through 16, 2026.

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For Saturday:

Zone 640, 642, and 644 West of R35E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the SSE through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

Zone 637, 643, 645, 646, and 644 East of R34E:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the E through WSW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the E through WSW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction. Watch for shifting transport winds. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Sunday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SSE through SW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SSE through SW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

For Monday:

Follow standard guidance matrix - see section 5 below - for burning units to the SW through NNW of SSRAs. For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 25 miles to the SW through NNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs. No additional restrictions necessary.

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4. SPECIAL NOTE:

The ODF forecast smoke zones differ from the NWS fire zones and

are available at:

https://www.oregon.gov/odf/fire/documents/smoke-forecast-zone-map.pdf

The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

numbers to discuss daily burning. For large burns (over

2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

please request a special forecast. Avoid calling

between 1:30 to 2:45 p.m.

http://www.odf.state.or.us/DIVISIONS/protection/fire_protection/

Daily/neo.htm

To subscribe to or unsubscribe from the email list for this

product, please go to the link:

http://weather.smkmgt.com/mailman/listinfo/

Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by

checking: http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

A map of planned and/or accomplished burns is located at:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/

909972015b8c4bbaa4736d9fdeb55800

5. STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

* Greater than 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 150 tons per mile

from downwind SSRAs.

Example: 75 tons allowed if burned a half mile from a downwind

SSRA.

* 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height: Limit to 50 tons per mile if

burning within 5 miles of downwind SSRAs. Limit to 100 tons

per mile if burning 5 miles or beyond downwind SSRAs.

Example #1: 200 tons allowed if burned 4 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

Example #2: 500 tons allowed if burned 5 miles from a downwind

SSRA.

* Less than 3000 ft mixing height: No burning within 5 miles of

downwind SSRAs. Limit to 60 tons per mile from downwind SSRAs.

* Ensure adequate spacing between units when burning near downwind

SSRAs.

* Use of polyethylene (PE) sheeting on greater than 75 percent of

piles in a unit with 60 percent coverage per pile will allow a

50 percent increase in tonnage over the existing instruction tonnage

for that zone.

* All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

prior to ignition.

6. BURN MONITORING:

Burns over 2000 tons must be monitored (OAR 629-048-0230(3) -

7/1/14). Monitoring of all burns is highly recommended for both

smoke management purposes and wildfire potential.